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The Threat Board is Looking Busy
The Threat Board is Looking Busy Markets are never as bad as you fear, but never as good as you hope. The Threat Board has seldom looked so complex: we can try to predict outcomes, but its notoriously difficult. The list of potential ignition points seems to be expanding exponentially: Energy Prices, Oil, Inflation, Stagflation, […]
Blain’s Morning Porridge – Nov 15th 2019
Blain’s Morning Porridge – Nov 15th 2019 “Liberty, equality, fraternity, or death; the last, much the easiest to bestow, O Guillotine!” As it’s a Friday I am contractually entitled to have a rant and whine about whatever I want to write about. Which, today, isn’t really the cut and thrust of markets. To be brutally […]
Black Swan Watch: China Has Added Over $50 TRILLION in Financial Assets Since 2014
Black Swan Watch: China Has Added Over $50 TRILLION in Financial Assets Since 2014 The biggest black swan facing the financial system is China. China has been the primary driver of growth for the global economy since the 2008 Crisis. Despite only accounting for 15% of global GDP, China accounts for 25%-30% of GDP growth. […]
The Biggest Emerging Market Debt Problem Is in America
Getty Images The Biggest Emerging Market Debt Problem Is in America A decade after the subprime bubble burst, a new one seems to be taking its place in the market for corporate collateralized loan obligations. A world economy geared toward increasing the supply of financial assets has hooked market participants and policymakers alike into a […]
Global Oil Price Deflation 2018 and Beyond
Global Oil Price Deflation 2018 and Beyond Photo Source wongaboo | CC BY 2.0 One of the key characteristics of the 2008-09 crash and its aftermath (i.e. chronic slow recovery in US and double and triple dip recessions in Europe and Japan) was a significant deflation in prices of global oil. After attaining well over […]
The “Nightmare Scenario” For Beijing: 50 Million Chinese Apartments Are Empty
The “Nightmare Scenario” For Beijing: 50 Million Chinese Apartments Are Empty Back in 2017, we explained why the “fate of the world economy is in the hands of China’s housing bubble.” The answer was simple: for the Chinese population, and growing middle class, to keep spending vibrant and borrowing elevated, it had to feel comfortable […]
Is the Greatest Bull Market Ever Finally Ending? (Hint: Follow the Money)
Is the Greatest Bull Market Ever Finally Ending? (Hint: Follow the Money) The key here is the gains generated by owning US-denominated assets as the USD appreciates. Is the Greatest Bull Market Ever finally ending? One straightforward approach to is to follow the money, i.e. global capital flows: assets that attract positive global capital flows […]
Most Bearish of Economic Charts Are Reason To Be Most Bullish on Financial Assets
Most Bearish of Economic Charts Are Reason To Be Most Bullish on Financial Assets In the land of the blind (economics), the one eyed man is king. So, forget everything you know (or don’t know) about economics and follow some very simple math that economists (and financiers, Fed chiefs, and administration after administration) are unwilling to […]
What Does it Mean, Saving Rate drops to 12-Year Low when 50% of Americans Don’t Have Savings?
What Does it Mean, Saving Rate drops to 12-Year Low when 50% of Americans Don’t Have Savings? Or what the averages are hiding. We will start with income and see what’s left over, and for whom. Personal income increased by 4.1% in December from a year earlier, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. This […]
A Bedtime Story
A Bedtime Story We are explaining our money system to our grandson, James, now 14 months old… His mother tries to get him to go to bed at 9 p.m. But the little boy’s internal clock is still on Baltimore time; it tells him it is much too early to go to sleep. Bill’s living […]
