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Is the Fall in Prices Bad News?

Contrary to the popular way of thinking, we suggest that there is nothing wrong with declining prices. What signifies industrial market economy under a commodity money such as gold is that prices of goods follow a declining trend.

According to Joseph Salerno,

In fact, historically, the natural tendency in the industrial market economy under a commodity money such as gold has been for general prices to persistently decline as ongoing capital accumulation and advances in industrial techniques led to a continual expansion in the supplies of goods. Thus throughout the nineteenth century and up until the First World War, a mild deflationary trend prevailed in the industrialized nations as rapid growth in the supplies of goods outpaced the gradual growth in the money supply that occurred under the classical gold standard. For example, in the US from 1880 to 1896, the wholesale price level fell by about 30 percent, or by 1.75% per year, while real income rose by about 85 percent, or around 5 percent per year.[1]

In a free market the rising purchasing power of money i.e. declining prices, is the mechanism that makes the great variety of goods produced accessible to many people. Obviously, in a free market economy it does not make much sense to be concerned about falling prices.

On this Murray Rothbard wrote,

Improved standards of living come to the public from the fruits of capital investment. Increased productivity tends to lower prices (and costs) and thereby distribute the fruits of free enterprise to all the public, raising the standard of living of all consumers. Forcible propping up of the price level prevents this spread of higher living standards.[2]

For most economic commentators a general fall in prices is always “bad news” for it generates expectations for further declines in prices and slows down people’s propensity to spend, which in turn undermines investment in plant and machinery.

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Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)

Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)

The Wall Street Journal recently ran an article called, Glut of Capital and Labor Challenge Policy Makers: Global oversupply extends beyond commodities, elevating deflation risk. To me, this is a very serious issue, quite likely signaling that we are reaching what has been called Limits to Growth, a situation modeled in 1972 in a book by that name.

What happens is that economic growth eventually runs into limits. Many people have assumed that these limits would be marked by high prices and excessive demand for goods. In my view, the issue is precisely the opposite one: Limits to growth are instead marked by low prices and inadequate demand. Common workers can no longer afford to buy the goods and services that the economy produces, because of inadequate wage growth. The price of all commodities drops, because of lower demand by workers. Furthermore, investors can no longer find investments that provide an adequate return on capital, because prices for finished goods are pulled down by the low demand of workers with inadequate wages.

Evidence Regarding the Connection Between Energy Consumption and GDP Growth

We can see the close connection between world energy consumption and world GDP using historical data.

 

Figure 1. World GDP in 2010$ compared (from USDA) compared to World Consumption of Energy (from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014).

This chart gives a clue regarding what is wrong with the economy. The slope of the line implies that adding one percentage point of growth in energy usage tends to add less and less GDP growth over time, as I have shown in Figure 2. This means that if we want to have, for example, a constant 4% growth in world GDP for the period 1969 to 2013, we would need to gradually increase the rate of growth in energy consumption from about 1.8% = (4.0% – 2.2%) growth in energy consumption in 1969 to 2.8% = (4.0% – 1.2%) growth in energy consumption in 2013.

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Deflation and the eurozone: why falling prices aren’t always good news

Deflation and the eurozone: why falling prices aren’t always good news

As oil prices continue to fall, a strange phenomenon is making its presence felt across Europe: deflation. Familiar in Japan since the 1990s, consistently falling prices for the goods we buy are almost unheard of in Europe, not seen since the grim years of the 1930s. But according to figures released in December, prices inside the eurozone are now falling by 0.2% a year.

You might think this is good news. After all, as wages and salaries stagnate, declining prices means an increase in people’s real purchasing power. Each euro in your pocket stretches, on average, just a little bit further than before. And in the short term, the decline in the price of oil alone has fed into some improvements in real living standards – or, at the very least, set a floor to their decline.

If the price falls were confined to just falling costs of energy and transport, this positive argument could hold. In the mid-1980s, a sharp fall in the price of oil led to briefly falling prices in Germany and other European countries without further consequences.

The reality of falling prices

But should declining prices spread and persist, there are two serious causes for concern. First – if you know that the price of anything you buy will be less in the future, why not wait until the future to buy it? A general expectation that prices will fall rather than rise creates a major disincentive to buy. Demand falls, less is sold, the recession worsens.

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