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Do You Remember The Oil Crisis And “Stagflation” Of The 1970s? In Many Ways, 2019 Is Starting To Look A Lot Like 1973…

Do You Remember The Oil Crisis And “Stagflation” Of The 1970s? In Many Ways, 2019 Is Starting To Look A Lot Like 1973…

The price of gasoline is rapidly rising, economic activity is slowing down, the Middle East appears to be on the brink of war, and Democrats are trying to find a way to remove a Republican president from office.  In many ways, 2019 is starting to look a lot like 1973.  For many Americans, the 1970s represent a rather depressing chapter in U.S. history that they would just like to forget, but the truth is that if we do not learn from history it is much more likely that we will repeat our mistakes.  And without a doubt, right now a lot of things are starting to move in a very ominous direction.

“Stagflation” was a term that was made popular in the 1970s, and it occurs when there is a high rate of inflation but economic growth is declining or stagnant.

The U.S. hasn’t had a serious bout with stagflation in quite a while, but it appears that we may be moving in that direction.

Let’s talk about the slowdown in the economy first.  On Monday, we learned that sales of existing homes in the U.S. were way down in March

Home sales are struggling to rebound after slumping in the second half of last year, when a jump in mortgage rates to nearly 5% discouraged many would-be buyers. Spring buying is so far running behind last year’s healthy gains: Sales were 5.4% below where they were a year earlier.

On a year over year basis, existing home sales have now fallen for 13 months in a row.

That is terrible, and there is no way to “spin” that fact to make it look good.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Loonie Tests 2018 Lows As Canada Existing Home Sales Crash To 5 Year Lows

The Canadian Dollar dropped, testing the lows of 2018, following CREA data showing existing home sales crashed to the lowest since 2013 and price appreciation slowed dramatically.

Home sales via Canadian MLS® Systems were down 6.5% in February. This marks the second consecutive monthly decline following the record set in December 2017 and the lowest reading in nearly five years.

February sales were down from the previous month in almost three-quarters of all local housing markets, with large monthly declines in and around Greater Vancouver (GVA) and Greater Toronto (GTA).

Toronto home sales are down 8.2% MoM!

Vancouver home sales are down 15.8% MoM!

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 16.9% year-over-year (y-o-y) and hit a five-year low for the month of February. Sales also stood 7% below the 10-year average for the month of February. Sales activity came in below year-ago levels in 80% of all local markets in February, including those nearby and within Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region.

“The drop off in sales activity following the record-breaking peak late last year confirms that many homebuyers moved purchase decisions forward late last year before tighter mortgage rules took effect in January,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist.

“Momentum for home sales activity going into the second quarter is also likely to weighed down by housing market uncertainty in British Columbia, where new housing polices were introduced toward the end of February.”

Furthermore, CREA notes that the Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 6.9% y-o-y in February 2018. This was the 10th consecutive deceleration in y-o-y gains, continuing a trend that began last spring. It was also the smallest y-o-y increase since October 2015.

and the kneejerk reaction in the market is to sell the Loonie, now trading back at 2018 lows – the lowest since July 2017..

Canadian Existing Home Sales Crash In January

After five straight months of acceleration, January saw Canadian existing home sales crash 14.5% – the biggest drop on record…

Home prices rose 2,3% over the past 12 months, but it appears a sudden close-eye on Chinese buyers has hit the market hard as Toronto home sales crashed a stunning 27% from December (prices down 4.4% YoY) and Vancouver sales down 10.5% MoM (prices up 18.1% YoY).

Canadian existing home sales are down 2.4% YoY.

Must be the weather, right?

This comes less than a week after horrific jobs data struck Canada – thanks to minimum wage-hikes.

The Canadian job market has never lost more part-time jobs – ever – than in January…

As a reminder, The Bank of Canada hiked ‘dovishly’ in January…

The BOC also noted that “while the economic outlook is expected to warrant higher interest rates over time, some continued monetary policy accommodation will likely be needed to keep the economy operating close to potential and inflation on target.”

We suspect that hike-trajectory may slow further.

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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