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The CONfidence Game

The CONfidence Game

The global economic landscape remains weak yet there appears to be no concern on the side of bulls and investors alike, so firm is the belief that the earnings recession that is unfolding is temporary, so firm is the belief that dovish central bankers can once again prevent any downside.

I get it, it has worked for 10 years and it’s worked again seemingly since the December lows. Why pretend it is anything but central banks?

After all Jay Powell is rapidly proving to be the market’s biggest thrust driver to the upside in 2019:

From my variant perch it’s a sign of deep underlying weakness. There is no bull market without central bank intervention or jawboning. Plain and simple.

The underlying premise of it all:

Praet: As a central bank, we can create money to buy assets #AskECB

There. They print money and buy assets and in process they distort the entire global price discovery process. Why? Because they have to in order to keep confidence up.

The world is one sell-off away from a global recession because market performance translates directly into consumer confidence and spending. Don’t believe me? Check this out:

In Q4 household financial assets dropped hard for the first time in a long time.

Why? Because markets dropped hard. What else dropped? Retail sales dropped 1.6% in December the biggest decline since September 2009.

Coincidence? You tell me:

Is it the economy that’s leading the horse here? Or is it the other way around? Q1 GDP is much worse than Q4 yet retail spending is higher in January. The case can be made that it is market performance and related confidence that leads spending. No accident then that retail sales bounced back a bit in January, after all we saw a massive rally following the big global central bank flip flop.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Central Bank Money Rules the World

Central Bank Money Rules the World

Central bank credit that supports markets — is not just creation of the Fed, but by central banks and institutions around the world colluding together. Global markets are too deeply connected these days to consider the Fed in isolation.

Since last month’s correction, the world has been watching the Fed because its policies have global implications. And worldwide sell-offs sent a clear sign to Fed Chair Powell to relax with the rate hikes.

When fears arise that central bank QE will recede on one side of the world, we see more volatility and rumors of hawkishness. To counter those fears, there will be a move toward dovish policy on the other side of the world.

Central banks operate in collusion. When the Fed signals it is raising rates, or markets over-react negatively to the threat, another central bank steps in. By colluding, other central banks offer even more dark money-QE to keep the party going.

The net result is a propensity toward the status quo in global monetary policy: a bullish, asset bubble-inflating bias in the stock markets and caution in the bond markets.

Here’s what’s going on with some of the most powerful central bankers right now, starting with Japan…

While U.S. markets were correcting earlier this month, Japan’s financial benchmark, the Nikkei 225 index fell more than 1,200 points. At the same time, the rumors of Japan’s central bank curbing its dark money-QE programs are just that.

While investors have speculated that the BoJ could be moving towards an exit from dark money policy (despite the BOJ denying this), we know that central banks are too scared of the outcomes.

In an economic pinch, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), will keep dark money flowing.

Confirming my premise, when Japanese Government Bond prices were dipping too fast, the BoJ announced “unlimited” buying of long-term Japanese government bonds. This is simply the continuation of the policy the BoJ already has in place.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

The ECB Morphs into the Mother of All “Bad Banks”

The ECB Morphs into the Mother of All “Bad Banks”

More than just a few “fallen angels.”.

As part of its QE operations, the ECB continues to pour billions of freshly created euros each month into corporate bonds – and sometimes when it buys bonds via “private placements” directly into some of Europe’s biggest corporations and the European subsidiaries of non-European transnationals. Its total corporate bond purchases recently passed the €100 billion threshold. And it’s growing at a rate of roughly €7 billion a month. And it’s in the process of becoming the biggest “bad bank.”

When the ECB first embarked on its corporate bond-buying scheme in March 2016, it stated that it would buy only investment-grade rated debt. But shortly after that, concerns were raised about what might happen if a name it owned was downgraded to below investment grade. A few months later a representative of the bank put such fears to rest by announcing that it “is not required to sell its holdings in the event of a downgrade” to junk, raising the prospect of it holding so-called “fallen angels.”

Now, sixteen months into the program, it turns out that the ECB has bought into 981 different corporate bond issuances, of which 34 are currently rated BB+, so non-investment grade, or junk. And 208 of the issuances are non-rated (NR). So in total, a quarter of the bond issuances it purchased are either junk or not rated (red bars):

The ECB initially said it would only buy bonds that are “rated” — and rated investment grade. Thus having a quarter of the bonds on its books either junk or not rated represents a major violation of that promise.

The ECB is clearly loading up on risk and possibly bad credit that Draghi’s successor is going to have to eat at some point further down the road.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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