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The Curse Of The Euro: Money Corrupted, Democracy Busted
The Curse Of The Euro: Money Corrupted, Democracy Busted
The preposterous Gong Show in Brussels over the weekend was the financial “Ben Tre” moment for the Euro and ECB. That is, it was the moment when the Germans—–imitating the American military on that ghastly morning in February 1968——set fire to the Eurozone in order to save it.
Some day history will judge good riddance……..but that get’s ahead of the story.
According to an American soldier’s first hand recollection of the Vietnam event, it was a Major Booris who infamously told reporter Peter Arnett, “It became necessary to destroy the town to save it”.
After the massacre of Greek democracy in the wee hours Monday morning, Angela Merkel said the same thing—even if her language was a tad less graphic:
It reflects the basic principles which we’ve followed in rescuing the euro. It now hinges on step-by-step implementation of what we agreed tonight.”
Now no one in their right mind could think that lending another $96 billion to an utterly bankrupt country makes any sense whatsoever. After all, the Greek economy has shrunk by 30% since 2008 and is wreathing under what is objectively a $400 billion public debt already in place today.
That figure follows from the fact that on top of Greece’s acknowledged $360 billion of general government debt there’s at least another $25 billion loan embedded in the ELA advances to the Greek banking system. The latter is deeply insolvent, meaning that some considerable portion of the $100 billion ELA currently outstanding is not an advance against good collateral in any plausible banking sense of the word, but merely a backdoor fiscal transfer from the ECB to keep Greece’s financial shipwreck afloat.
Likewise, as I demonstrated Friday, given the even deeper deep hole into which the Greek economy has tumbled during the last six months, the fiscal targets extracted from Greece under this weekend’s demarche are utterly ridiculous. Indeed, even if the targeted primary surpluses of 1,2,3 and 3.5% of GDP are miraculously reached through 2018, upwards of $15 billion of budget deficits after interest accruals would be incurred anyway, and a lot more than that if there are material budget shortfalls, which is a virtual certainty.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Curse Of The Euro: Money Corrupted, Democracy Busted
The Curse Of The Euro: Money Corrupted, Democracy Busted
The preposterous Gong Show in Brussels over the weekend was the financial “Ben Tre” moment for the Euro and ECB. That is, it was the moment when the Germans—–imitating the American military on that ghastly morning in February 1968——set fire to the Eurozone in order to save it.
Some day history will judge good riddance……..but that get’s ahead of the story.
According to an American soldier’s first hand recollection of the Vietnam event, it was a Major Booris who infamously told reporter Peter Arnett, “It became necessary to destroy the town to save it”.
After the massacre of Greek democracy in the wee hours Monday morning, Angela Merkel said the same thing—even if her language was a tad less graphic:
It reflects the basic principles which we’ve followed in rescuing the euro. It now hinges on step-by-step implementation of what we agreed tonight.”
Now no one in their right mind could think that lending another $96 billion to an utterly bankrupt country makes any sense whatsoever. After all, the Greek economy has shrunk by 30% since 2008 and is wreathing under what is objectively a $400 billion public debt already in place today.
That figure follows from the fact that on top of Greece’s acknowledged $360 billion of general government debt there’s at least another $25 billion loan embedded in the ELA advances to the Greek banking system. The latter is deeply insolvent, meaning that some considerable portion of the $100 billion ELA currently outstanding is not an advance against good collateral in any plausible banking sense of the word, but merely a backdoor fiscal transfer from the ECB to keep Greece’s financial shipwreck afloat.
Likewise, as I demonstrated Friday, given the even deeper deep hole into which the Greek economy has tumbled during the last six months, the fiscal targets extracted from Greece under this weekend’s demarche are utterly ridiculous.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greek Parliament Votes In Favor of “Prior Actions” – Protests Erupt in Athens (Live Stream)
Greek Parliament Votes In Favor of “Prior Actions” – Protests Erupt in Athens (Live Stream)
Euro-Group Deal Approved by Greek Parliament
The result of the parliamentary vote in Athens just came through, and was remarkably closely aligned with recent surveys of Greek voters. Funny enough, these surveys revealed approximately 70% approval of the dealoffered by the euro-group among the population. No doubt the fact that the insolvency of Greece’s fractionally reserved banking system was recently painfully revealed to depositors after the ECB froze ELA had something to do with this sudden surge in support. Moreover, it is always possible that a majority of Greece’s citizens actually realizes that there is no way around wide-ranging reform.
Recent polls show soaring support for Syriza in spite of Tsipras ignoring the referendum outcome (source: Keep Talking Greece)
There were 229 “Yes” votes, 64 “No” votes and 6 abstentions. Make of this what you will, but the only parties unanimously voting “No” were the Stalinist KKE and the Neo-Nazi party “Golden Dawn”. In addition, a greater number of Syriza MPs rebelled than was previously expected (apparently 38 of the 149 Syriza MPs voted “No”, roughly equivalent to the size of the party’s Marxist Bloc) . Ironically, even though Mr. Tsipras has decided to completely ignore the “No” vote returned in the referendum, support for Syriza has soared among voters as well.
As a result of the vote, there are now protests in Athens – of which you can see a live stream below:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Greece Just Lost Control Of Its Banks, And Why Deposit Haircuts Are Imminent
Greece Just Lost Control Of Its Banks, And Why Deposit Haircuts Are Imminent
Yes, Greek banks may have been insolvent – something that was clear since the first bailout of 2010 – but at least the Greek state had control over them: as such it could have mandated mergers, recapitalizations, liquidity injections, even depositor bail-ins (perhaps the harshest lesson for the ordinary Greek population as a result of this latest crisis is that deposits are not “cash in the bank” but liabilities of insolvent financial organizations).
Starting on Wednesday that will no longer be the case.
Because while Greek banks will maintain their capital controls for months and withdrawals will be limited to €60 or less for months (the ECB is well aware that any boost to the ELA will result in a promptly surge in deposit outflows until the new ELA ceiling is reached, and so on ad inf) the one key change on Wednesday when the Tsipras government, whose coalition no longer has a majority in parliament and will have to rely on opposition votes, votes through the humiliating Greek “pre-deal” to unlock negotiations for the promised €86 billion in bailouts (which will be used almost entirely to repay the Troika) is that it will hand over the keys of Greek banks to the ECB.
Here is Reuters with this little known fact:
One of the preconditions imposed on Greece for a deal is that it signs into law European rules that would put euro zone authorities at the ECB and in Brussels, rather than Athens, in charge of identifying and closing or breaking up sick banks.
This in turn could lead to a shake-up of the sector that could see some banks close, with losses pushed onto bondholders and possibly even large depositors. In such circumstances, there would be little that Athens could do to prevent this.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
It Begins: ECB Hikes Greek ELA Haircuts; Full “Depositor Bail-In” Sensitivity Analysis
It Begins: ECB Hikes Greek ELA Haircuts; Full “Depositor Bail-In” Sensitivity Analysis
Earlier today we reported that as Bloomberg correctly leaked, the ECB would keep its ELA frozen for Greek banks at its ?89 billion ceiling level last increased two weeks ago. However we did not know what the ECB would do with Greek ELA haircuts, assuming that the ECB would not dare risk contagion and the collapse of the Greek banking system by triggering a waterfall solvency rush in Greek banks if and when it boosts ELA haircuts. Turns out we were wrong, and as the ECB just announced “the Governing Council decided today to adjust the haircuts on collateral accepted by the Bank of Greece for ELA.”
Full Press Release:
ELA to Greek banks maintained
- Emergency liquidity assistance maintained at 26 June 2015 level
- Haircuts on collateral for ELA adjusted
- Governing Council closely monitoring situation in financial markets
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided today to maintain the provision of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greek banks at the level decided on 26 June 2015 after discussing a proposal from the Bank of Greece.
ELA can only be provided against sufficient collateral.
The financial situation of the Hellenic Republic has an impact on Greek banks since the collateral they use in ELA relies to a significant extent on government-linked assets.
In this context, the Governing Council decided today to adjust the haircuts on collateral accepted by the Bank of Greece for ELA.
The Governing Council is closely monitoring the situation in financial markets and the potential implications for the monetary policy stance and for the balance of risks to price stability in the euro area. The Governing Council is determined to use all the instruments available within its mandate.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“Bank Holiday” Preparations Begin In Greece, Lines Form At Athens ATMs
“Bank Holiday” Preparations Begin In Greece, Lines Form At Athens ATMs
The writing has been on the wall for quite sometime.
Deposit flight from Greece’s ailing banking sector has been running north of €500 million per day this week as the threat of capital controls casts a pall over the Greek government’s efforts to reassure the public and head off a terminal bank run.
Sparking a panic has been the most powerful tool at the troika’s disposal to bring PM Alexis Tsipras to the negotiating table and force Syriza to either concede to pension cuts and a VAT hike or risk social and political upheaval in the face of dark ATMs and public protests – we said this first in February and finally even the Greek government realized just what game Europe is playing.
Until now, Greeks had taken the barrage of headlines in stride with a stoic fortitude that would impress Marcus Aurelius but now, it appears as though the ‘institutions’ might have finally broken their spirits.
Earlier today, the ECB agreed to lift the ELA cap by just €1.8 billion, far less than Greek banking officials had requested and probably just barely enough to cover Friday’s withdrawals. And so, as Europe’s “Lehman Weekend” may finally be kicking off, the ATM lines are officially forming as Greeks prepare to be ‘Cyprus’d’ and as the country stares into “template” oblivion.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Greek People Just Destroyed Syriza’s Strategy
The Greek People Just Destroyed Syriza’s Strategy
Greek stocks ventured deeper into purgatory. The ASE index dove below 700 intraday on Wednesday for the first time since the crisis days of June 2012. Then word spread that the ECB had raised the cap on the Emergency Liquidity Assistance for Greek banks by €1.5 billion to €75.5 billion. It’s the oxygen line for Greek banks. Without it, they’re toast.
The ELA provides the liquidity so that the Greeks can continue yanking their beloved euros out of their banks to stash them elsewhere before their desperate government confiscates them.
The government, under the cool leadership of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, is already confiscating €2.5 billion in “idle” cash that state agencies, state-owned enterprises, and local governments kept at commercial banks, the same banks that the ELA is propping up and that the Greeks are fleeing. Now these entities have to transfer the money to the central bank so that the government can “borrow” it for other purposes.
When word got out that ELA money could continue to flow to the banks for a little while longer, the dreadfully beaten-down FTSE Athens Banks index jumped over 11%. It remains 74% below where it was last June. The overall ASE index recovered to settle above 700. It remains a mere shadow of its former self, down 87% from its cheap-euro-debt peak in 2007.
Greek 2-year yields and 3-year yields, unlike their Eurozone brethren that are blissfully bathing in the negative, jumped to nearly 30%. The 5-year default probability is approaching 90%. In short, the Greek financial markets are kissing the euro goodbye.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
ECB Prepares To Sacrifice Greek Banks With 50% Collateral Haircut
ECB Prepares To Sacrifice Greek Banks With 50% Collateral Haircut
In what seems like a coincidental retaliation for Greece’s pivot to Russia (and following Greece’s initiation of capital controls), the supposedly independent European Central Bank has decided suddenly that – after dishing out €74 billion of emergency liquidity to the Greek National Bank to fund its banks – as The NY Times reports, the value of the collateral that Greek banks post at their own central bank to secure these loans be reduced by as much as 50%, and the haircut scould increase if negotiations with Europe remain at an impasse. As we detailed earlier, this isabout as worst-case-scenario for Greece as is ‘diplomatically’ possible currently, and highlights an increasingly hard line by The ECB toward The Greeks as the move will leave banks hard-pressed to survive.
As we laid out earlier, according to Bloomberg, the ECB staff proposal lays out three options to reduce central-bank risk: “the scenarios envisage returning haircuts to the level before late last year, when the ECB eased its collateral requirements for Greece; to set them at 75 percent; or to set them at 90 percent. The latter two options could be applied if Greece is in an “orderly default” under a formal ECB program or a “disorderly default,” CNBC said, without further elaborating on those terms.”
Any reduction in ELA availability would be devastating to Greece, where depositors continue to pull cash from banks accounts to the tune of several hundred million euro every week, and the central bank “seeks to match the outflow with ELA. The Bank of Greece keeps a buffer of around 3 billion euros of ELA allowance in reserve, to give it time to react to a possible bank run, one of the officials said.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
