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IEA Asks Majors Oil Producers To Boost Production

IEA Asks Majors Oil Producers To Boost Production

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Rising oil prices are hurting consumers, Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), says, calling on major all producers to do the best they can to further boost production and ease persistent supply concerns that pushed Brent Crude to above $86 a barrel on Wednesday.

“Some countries have been making efforts to increase production but this is far from comforting the markets right now,” Birol told the Financial Times on Thursday, adding that his “hope is that all the producers are aware of the sensitive situation and make their best efforts.”

Although higher energy prices may look like a boon for oil exporting countries today, tomorrow the economies of oil exporters will also suffer because of the lower demand growth stemming from high oil prices, Birol told FT.

In an interview with Reuters, also today, Birol said that:

“It is now high time for all the players, especially those key producers and oil exporters, to consider the situation and take the right steps to comfort the market, otherwise I don’t see anybody benefiting.”

Earlier this week, the IEA chief also took to Twitter to comment on the oil price rally in recent weeks and its implications on global economy.

“Rising oil prices are hurting consumers & economic growth prospects today – globally but particularly in the emerging economies – but in a rapidly changing energy world could also have implications for producers tomorrow,” Birol tweeted on Tuesday. Related: A New Era Of LNG Megaprojects

U.S. President Donald Trump has also used Twitter several times this year to slam OPEC for keeping oil prices too high.

Birol’s comments on oil prices and what oil producers should do come just after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said earlier this week that Saudi Arabia would be pumping 10.7 million bpd in October—just below the Kingdom’s highest-ever production level—and would slightly raise production volumes in November.

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Higher Oil Prices Might Not Destroy Demand Growth

Higher Oil Prices Might Not Destroy Demand Growth

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The recent jump in oil prices to $80 per barrel raised a lot of questions about whether or not the heady demand growth projections for this year would hold up. In fact, signs of strain quickly popped up in disparate parts of the world. But as governments move to protect their citizens from high fuel prices (and to protect their political positions), demand might not be as price sensitive as analysts tend to think.

The history of oil price cycles show demand is highly sensitive to sharp increases in prices – demand took a hit in 1973, the early 1980s, the extraordinary 2005-2008 price increase, and the 2011-2014 period, when prices routinely topped $100 per barrel.

That record provides some guidance about what we should expect. Brent hit $80 per barrel for the first time in more than three years in May, a price level that would start to test the durability of demand growth. The run up in prices coincided with some early signs that consumers were losing their patience.

For example, U.S. President Donald Trump complained to OPEC in April about “artificially” high prices, and reportedly sent a request to the Saudis for higher output recently. Crippling protestsin Brazil brought the economy to a standstill and led to the ouster of the CEO of Petrobras. The International Energy Agency revised down its forecast for demand growth this year by 100,000 bpd, citing high prices.

Just as prices started to become painful, the OPEC+ coalition felt compelled to change course, and are on the verge of increasing output. Even with the recent price correction, demand threats still loom. The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates, which is strengthening the U.S. dollar and making dollar-denominated debt more painful to service. That is putting a strain on emerging market demand. The currencies of Argentina and Turkey have been slammed in the past few months.

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IEA: Price Spike Coming In 2020

IEA: Price Spike Coming In 2020

Oil

The oil market has been awash in crude for more than three years, and OPEC has struggled to accelerate the rebalancing effort, but the world could be heading for a supply crunch in a few years due to the sharp fall in industry spending.

The halving of oil prices from $100 per barrel before 2014 down to just $50 today has led to a corresponding plunge in upstream investment. But even as benchmark prices seem to have stabilized over the past year, with most analysts predicting gradual and modest gains in the year ahead (depending on OPEC’s actions), there’s still no sign of a serious rebound in spending levels.

The problem of a shortage of supply seems very far off today, given the swift turnaround in U.S. shale and persistently high levels of crude storage.

But demand continues to rise—the IEA just upgraded its demand growth estimate for 2017 to 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d). If that level of demand growth continues for a few years, it will more than devour the excess supply on the market. Even a more tempered growth rate would strain supplies toward the end of the decade, absent a corresponding uptick in production.

“There are still not enough signs of investment beginning to return, and that raises the risk of tightening of the market in the next five years and a risk to the stability of oil prices,” Neil Atkinson, head of the IEA’s oil markets and industry division, said at a conference in Bahrain. “There is at least a possibility of going back to the situation we had 10 years ago where oil prices were very, very high at a time when demand was growing.”

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