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Why Nassim Taleb Thinks Leaders Make Poor Decisions

Why Nassim Taleb Thinks Leaders Make Poor Decisions Why do experts, CEOs, politicians, and other apparently highly capable people make such terrible decisions so often? Is because they’re ill-intentioned? Or because, despite appearances, they’re actually stupid? Nassim Nicholas Taleb, philosopher, businessman, perpetual troublemaker, and author of, among other works, the groundbreaking Fooled by Randomness, says […]

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Data-Dependent … on Imaginary Data

Data-Dependent … on Imaginary Data  Invisible Derivatives Giant Mystery Zero Confidence Sonoma and the SIC in San Diego Federal Reserve officials like to say their policy course is “data-dependent.” That sounds very cautious and intelligent, but what does it actually mean? Which data and who’s interpreting it? Let’s ask a few questions. Photo: Federal Reserve […]

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The All-Important Doorman

The All-Important Doorman Picture this: A tribal leader from a distant country visits the US. He’s brought to a large apartment building in New York City. When he gets out of the car, he looks up at the great building and is quite impressed. A uniformed doorman exits the foyer and comes out on the […]

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How to Recognize and Leave Behind Your Social Conditioning

How to Recognize and Leave Behind Your Social Conditioning Every decision humans make is colored by their past. Despite vast progress, we are still prey to the oldest tool of learning: social conditioning and the pressure of the group. What was once a key to survival follows us into the modern age. It shapes our […]

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Cognitive Biases Afflict Government “Nudgers” Too

Cognitive Biases Afflict Government “Nudgers” Too Market-based decisions may not always be entirely rational, but there is almost no incentive for governmental decisions to be rational, either. Economist Richard Thaler recently won the 2017 Nobel Prize in economics for his important work documenting widespread cognitive errors in human decision-making. All too often, people fail to act […]

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20 cognitive biases that screw up your decisions

20 cognitive biases that screw up your decisions You make thousands of rational decisions every day — or so you think. From what you’ll eat throughout the day to whether you should make a big career move, research suggests that there are a number of cognitive stumbling blocks that affect your behaviour, and they can […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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