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A tale of two civilisations
A tale of two civilisations In recent years, America’s unsuccessful attempts at containing China as a rival hegemon has only served to promote Chinese antipathy against American capitalism. China is now retreating into the comfort of her long-established moral values, best described as a mixture of Confucianism and Marxism, while despising American individualism, its careless […]
The path to monetary collapse
The path to monetary collapse Few mainstream commentators understand the seriousness of the economic and monetary situation. from a V-shaped rapid return to normality towards a more prolonged recovery phase. The fact that a liquidity crisis developed in US money markets five months before the virus hit America has been forgotten. Only a rising gold […]
The looming derivative crisis
The looming derivative crisis The powerful forces of bank credit contraction are at the heart of a rapidly evolving financial crisis in global derivatives, whose gross value is over $600 trillion; an unimaginable sum. Central banks are on course to destroy their currencies through unlimited monetary expansion, lethal for bullion banks with fractionally reserved unallocated […]
Post-tariff considerations
Post-tariff considerations President Trump has declared he will extend tariffs of 25% on all America’s imports of Chinese goods. China is responding with tariff increases of its own. The consequences of this action and reaction will be to kick-start higher monetary inflation in America and an economic slump. This article explains how an overdue credit […]
The Arrival of the Credit Crisis
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CREDIT CRISIS Those of us who closely follow the credit cycle should not be surprised by the current slide in equity markets. It was going to happen anyway. The timing had recently become apparent as well, and in early August I was able to write the following: “The timing for the […]
The Arrival Of The Credit Crisis
The Arrival Of The Credit Crisis Those of us who closely follow the credit cycle should not be surprised by the current slide in equity markets. It was going to happen anyway. The timing had recently become apparent as well, and in early August I was able to write the following: “The timing for the […]
Could GE’s Slow Collapse Ignite A Financial Crisis?
Could GE’s Slow Collapse Ignite A Financial Crisis? Will GE be the proverbial “black swan?” – It had come to my attention that General Electric was locked out of the commercial paper market three weeks ago after Moody’s downgraded GE’s short term credit rating to a ratings level (P-2) that prevents prime money market funds […]
Train Crash Preview
Train Crash Preview Today we will summarize something I’ve been thinking about for a long time. Exactly how will we get from the credit crisis, which I think is coming in the next 12–18 months, to what I call the Great Reset, when the global debt will be “rationalized” via some form of nonpayment. Whatever […]
How High Is The Risk of a Currency Crisis?
How High Is The Risk of a Currency Crisis? “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated”, quipped Mark Twain in response to a newspaper report that said he was on his deathbed. The same could be said about many fiat currencies. Whether we are looking at the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen […]
When Will the Next Credit Crisis Occur?
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CREDIT CRISIS OCCUR? The timing of any credit crisis is set by the rate at which the credit cycle progresses. People don’t think in terms of the credit cycle, wrongly believing it is a business cycle. The distinction is important, because a business cycle by its name suggests it emanates from […]
Will Macro-Economists Ever Learn?
WILL MACRO-ECONOMISTS EVER LEARN? As we lurch through successive credit crises, central bankers and economists believe they learn valuable lessons every time, and that the ultimate prize, the suppression of business cycles through monetary policy, will be achieved. We saw, over Brexit, how wrong the Bank of England’s and the UK Treasury’s models were, and […]
