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Big Oil Doubles Down On Shale Despite Price Drop

Big Oil Doubles Down On Shale Despite Price Drop

big oil shale

It’s the time of the year when oil companies start announcing their budgets for next year and besides a steady albeit guarded optimism, one thing stands out: oil majors are doubling down on their shale endeavors.

Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Hess Corp all announced their capex plans for next year in the last few days and all three have big plans for U.S. shale. In fact, Conoco said it would allocate half of its budget on onshore operations in the United States, while Hess Corp said the bulk of its US$1.89 billion production growth budget, or US$1.425 billion, would be poured into the Bakken play.

Chevron has  earmarked US$3.6 billion for expanding its production in the Permian and another US$1.6 billion will be invested in other shale plays in the United States. That makes a total of US$5.2 billion for U.S. shale, which is substantially higher than this year’s budget of US$4.3 billion.

Anadarko, which made its 2019 spending plans public last month, said it planned to allocate more than two-thirds of its 2019 budget to shale operations, with a particular focus on the Delaware Basin in the Permian and the DJ basin in Colorado.

According to Bloomberg, shale has become “a safe haven” for Big Oil amid the recent increased volatility in prices. The argument is that shale production costs are much lower than a few years ago and combine with the opportunity for a steady production increase and quicker returns than conventional projects.

The recent assessment of the U.S. Geological Survey of the recoverable reserves in the Wolfcamp basin must have added fuel to Big Oil’s shale enthusiasm.

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Big Oil Won’t Spend Despite Fat Profits

Big Oil Won’t Spend Despite Fat Profits

oil tankers

Higher oil prices are expected to leave the oil industry flush with cash, but the “capital discipline” mantra remains. Market watchers have wondered whether top oil executives would eschew with tight-fisted spending plans once their pockets fattened up again.

“We’re laser focused on disciplined free cash flow generation and strong execution. Discipline means, we’re not chasing higher prices by ramping up activity,” ConocoPhillips’ CEO Ryan Lance told investors on an earnings call. “By staying disciplined, we generate strong free cash flow, which we then allocate in a shareholder-friendly way.” He went on to stress how committed the company was to boosting the quarterly dividend and share buyback program.

Conoco beat analysts’ estimates, earning $1.36 per share in the third quarter, eight times the earnings from the $0.16 per share a year earlier. Conoco also saw soaring production in the big three shale areas – the Permian, Eagle Ford and Bakken – with output up 48 percent to 313,000 bpd. Lance said that the company still wants to “optimize” its portfolio, which includes $600 million in asset sales.

Conoco’s experience highlights an important industry trend, which is prioritizing profits over growth and size. Lance pointed out that the last time earnings were this good was back in 2014. “Brent was over $100 per barrel and our production was almost 1.5 million barrels of equivalent oil per day. So we’re as profitable today as we were then, despite prices being 25% lower and volumes being 20% lower,” Lance told investors. “So bigger isn’t always better. That’s why we’re focused on per share growth and value, not absolute volume growth.”

Norwegian oil company Equinor (formerly Statoil) echoed that sentiment.

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How Oil Industry Lobbyists Played the Long Game to Access a Fuel-Rich Corner of Alaskan Wilderness

How Oil Industry Lobbyists Played the Long Game to Access a Fuel-Rich Corner of Alaskan Wilderness 

Joseph Sohm / Shutterstock

This story was co-published by ProPublica and Politico Magazine.

From his seat in the small plane flying over the largest remaining swath of American wilderness, Bruce Babbitt thought he could envision the legacy of one of his proudest achievements as Interior Secretary in the Clinton administration.

Babbitt was returning in the summer of 2013 from four sunlit nights in Alaska’s western Arctic, where at one point his camp was nearly overrun by a herd of caribou that split around the tents at the last minute. Now, below him, Babbitt saw an oil field —  one carefully built and operated to avoid permanent roads and other scars on the vast expanse of tundra and lakes.

Under the deal he’d negotiated just before leaving Interior in 2000, that would be the only kind of drilling he thought would be allowed in the 23 million acres of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, which, despite its name, is a pristine region home to one of the world’s largest caribou herds and giant flocks of migratory birds. The compromise was fair and, he hoped, enduring —  clear-eyed about the need for more domestic oil but resolute in defense of the wilderness.

The deal lasted barely 15 years.

In February, the Obama administration granted the ConocoPhillips oil company the right to drill in the reserve. The Greater Mooses Tooth project, as it is known, upended the protections that Babbitt had engineered, saving the oil company tens of millions and setting what conservationists see as a foreboding precedent.

How ConocoPhillips overcame years of resistance from courts, native Alaskans, environmental groups and several federal agencies is the story of how Washington really works. It is a story that surprised even a veteran of the political machine like Babbitt.

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Obama Slams The Door On Future U.S. Arctic Drilling

Obama Slams The Door On Future U.S. Arctic Drilling

The Obama administration officially shut the door on Arctic drilling, a move that could prevent any new drilling for years to come.

The U.S. Department of Interior announced on October 16 that it would cancel two lease sales for offshore acreage, which had been scheduled to take place in 2016 and 2017. Environmental groups have been doggedly criticizing the Obama administration for allowing Royal Dutch Shell to drill in the Arctic to begin with, citing the potential catastrophe if an oil spilled occurred. They had called upon the President to deny any permits to Shell.

But it wasn’t environmental protest that killed off Shell’s drilling campaign. What really forced the Anglo-Dutch company to retreat was low oil prices and disappointing drilling results.

Similarly, the Obama administration is now shutting the door on future lease sales not because of concerns over the environment, but “In light of current market conditions and low industry interest,” as Interior put it in a statement.

Related: Airstrikes Have Yet To Stop ISIS Oil Industry

On its face, the move is a logical one. Few other companies were interested in drilling in the Chukchi or Beaufort Seas, despite several having purchased leases years ago. Statoil and ConocoPhillips, two other large oil companies interested in the Arctic, had previously put their Arctic ambitions on ice because of the difficulty and high costs associated with drilling in the region. With Shell announcing that it would suspend U.S. Arctic exploration for the “foreseeable future” there are now zero companies that are viably interested in drilling anytime soon.

Remarkably, however, the interest in new leases had dried up even before the downturn in oil prices. Interior said that it put a “Call for Information and Nominations” in September 2013, which is essentially a way for the government to solicit interest from the industry on which areas to auction off based on their interest.

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ConocoPhillips Fires 10% Of Global Workforce, Warns Of “Dramatic Downturn” To Oil Industry

ConocoPhillips Fires 10% Of Global Workforce, Warns Of “Dramatic Downturn” To Oil Industry

Remember when the oil crash was supposed to be “unequivocally good” for the global economy and the US consumer, only for this to be disproven as the biggest macroeconomic lie since “QE is good for the people”? We do –  quite vividly – which is why in December of last year we presented “150 Billion Reasons Why Low Oil Prices Are Not Good For The Global Economy” and countless other articles subsequently explaining why the great oil collapse of 2014 (and 2015) is actually “unambiguously bad.” It took the so-called experts the usual 6-8 months to catch up, and admit they were wrong or at least stay silent this time.

In fact, 10 months after our first exposition on the death of the Petrodollar, the massive upcoming reserve liquidation (read Treasury selling) that is about to be unleashed as a result of the soaring dollar and plunging price of oil, has finally become a topic du jour at such banks as Bank of America and Deutsche Bank, who have finally grasped that the great oil crash precipitated nothing short of the world’s first Reverse QE episode in history as some $10 trillion in accumulated reserves start being sold.

That, however, mostly impacts the uber-wealthy: those whose net worth is invested in financial assets which are about to be sold en masse by some of the world’s biggest central banks. Where it hits much closer to home is when firms such as Houston based ConocoPhillips announce that the E&P giant is about to terminate 10%, or 1,800 people, of its global workforce, in the next several weeks as it copes with low oil prices.

As the Houston Chroncile’s FuelFix blog writes, “Daren Beaudo, a company spokesman, confirmed that an internal communication was sent to employees earlier this week informing them of the upcoming staff reductions. Most of those affected workers will receive layoff notifications next month.”

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Oil Majors’ Profits Take A Beating

Oil Majors’ Profits Take A Beating

The first quarterly earnings reports since the collapse of oil prices are in and the numbers show a significant deterioration in profits for the oil majors.

Royal Dutch Shell went first on January 29, revealing a big jump from the same quarter a year ago, but down from the third quarter of 2014. In fact, Shell announced that it would cut $15 billion in spending over the next few years, an about-face from just a few months ago when it stated that it would leave capital expenditures unchanged in 2015. Shell’s CEO, concerned about the poor state of oil and gas markets, said that it may even consider withdrawing itself from significant assets held around the world, retrenching and focusing on North America.

On the same day, ConocoPhillips also reported gloomy numbers. It plans onslashing 2015 spending by an additional 15 percent, which comes after a December announcement of a 20 percent cut in expenditures for the year.

Related: Schlumberger To Retake Oil Services Crown With New Deal

Chevron followed that up on January 30, posting its worst showing in five years. The $3.5 billion in earnings for the fourth quarter of 2014 was 30 percent lower than from the previous year. The California-based oil major says that it will trim spending by 13 percent.

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Big Oil Slashing Spending Amid Low Prices

Big Oil Slashing Spending Amid Low Prices.

Oil prices continue to slide in mid-December, slumping towards another key threshold of $60 per barrel.

Oil prices hit a five-year low on December 10. While many major oil players have gone to lengths to assure markets that they can weather the price downturn – and indeed it is far from clear how long the current price collapse will last – low prices are clearly starting to have an impact on major investment decisions. Drilling permits dropped by 36 percent between October and November, and the number of rigs in operation continues to fall.

Many oil companies are beginning to pare back capital expenditures, reconsidering pouring billions of dollars into expensive projects that may or may not be profitable in the current environment.

ConocoPhillips announced on December 8 that it would slash capital expenditures in 2015 by 20 percent, dropping its spending budget to $13.5 billion. And in a sign that the oil price slump is starting to take a major toll on future investments, ConocoPhillips said that it would “defer significant investment” on its projects that are in their earlier stages, such as its fields in the Montney and Duvernay in Canada, along with its holdings in the Permian basin and the Niobrara.

Related: Who Comes Out On Top After Oil Pandemonium?

BP is also hoping to cut costs. It expects to lay off workers and trim spending, perhaps by as much as $2 billion. It is unclear how much spending the oil major already had planned to cut, as it continues to downsize after steep losses stemming from the Deepwater Horizon disaster in 2010, but a company spokesman said the drop in oil prices “has increased our focus on these activities.” In an investor presentation, BP said that it usually approves new projects when oil prices are at $80 or higher.

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