Home » Posts tagged 'computer models'
Tag Archives: computer models
Is the Future Predetermined?
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; it is easy to see why the government wanted Socrates. You said Monday would be the low then a bounce and that is what unfolds. You forecast so many markets and you get it to the day. Others claim this is the guy who called 2008 so buy his latest forecast resting on a single forecast. Your track record is far beyond anyone ever. How can you do this? Is the future predetermined?
HC
Many people have written in to ask the same question, for example: “I had begun settling on the position (with relative comfort) that while technicals provide insights into the market, its the market makers that manipulate conditions to the point of driving it in one direction or the other – unless of course, there’s a significant fundamental reason for the market to be guided by the invisible hand.
However, after experiencing Socrates and learning more about your approach, I find it challenging (mentally) to accept that there isn’t a pre-designed aspect guiding markets the way they roll.”
Others have asked: “Does Socrates foresee the birth and emergence of great teachers to come who have the capacity of overcoming the Deep State and bringing the world back into an economic balance?” Then there are questions such as: “Because Socrates was created by you, does it carry an inherent bias on economic theories about the world that it generates 1000 reports on a day for? Is it not impossible to truly be conscious and to accurately see the global economic landscape without having a fundamental empathy (being truly human to know what human nature is).”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Right or Wrong – The Dark Side of Human Nature
Right or Wrong – The Dark Side of Human Nature
I greatly appreciate the confidence saying I am never wrong. But on an individual level,NOBODY can possibly be right all the time. This is why I try to emphasize that the numbers are the numbers and that all we can do is watch how everything unfolds. I have no personal vision of the future and what I fear I would not say publicly anyway for that is just opinion. All I can do is say this is what has happened in the past and express what the computer says – not ME. The markets are the only infallible guide if you just listen. Like the year-end closing for the Swiss. A closing above the 9700 level simply stated the 2011 low should hold. Had we closed below that, then new lows were possible. The number define the forecast – NOT my opinion. Most people forecast on what they “think” will happen. I do not play that game. My OPINION is no better than anyone else’s.
The key to analysis and trading is you must define where you are right and where you are wrong. The key here is long-term verses short-term. One thing I observed is that trying to predict the closing of whatever tomorrow will be infinitely much more difficult than predicting years in advance. The trend is in motion. Like the Swiss Peg, yes you can fight against the trend, but the trend will always win. So where the Dow closes tomorrow really means nothing to the long-term. That is just what we call noise. There are countless variables that will determine the closing of the Dow on a daily basis. But the trend determines the course of where you are headed. It is the difference between the daily weather and the 4 seasons.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
