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Swiss Bank “Goes There”, Applies Negative Rates To Retail Deposits
Swiss Bank “Goes There”, Applies Negative Rates To Retail Deposits
Back in September in “How Mario Draghi Can Force The Swiss National Bank To Go ‘Nuclear On Depositors,” we discussed the implications of the ECB’s (likely) decision to plunge further into NIRP-dom at the bank’s December meeting.
In short, DM central banks – with the possible exception of the Fed which is about to create a rather meaningful policy divergence with its core CB brethren – are in a proverbial race to bottom. It’s a beggar-thy-neighbor monetary policy regime and the more stubborn inflation expectations prove to be, the more aggressive the tit-for-tat easing, as everyone involved scrambles to protect their currency in the face of incessant competitive devaluations on all sides.
As we outlined in great detail in the post linked above, the ECB’s ultra dovish lean has the potential to create a lot of problems for the Riksbank, the Norges Bank, and the SNB.
Sweden is running out of options for a QE program that’s already broken once (see here and here) and although Stefan Ingves will probably tell you there’s more room to cut in the event Draghi moves on the depo rate, the Riksbank is already at -0.35 and the housing bubble has reached epic proportions. Of course staying on hold in the event of an ECB cut means the krona will soar and then, well, there’s goes any hope of hitting the elusive inflation target.
Norway, on the other hand, can’t even begin to think about QE because frankly, they’re too rich. That is, the Norges Bank wouldn’t have enough assets to buy without breaking the market pretty much immediately. That leaves rate cuts and to be sure, at +0.75 (yes, that’s right, not everyone is in NIRP), there’s probably a bit of breathing room there for Oeystein Olsen and he may need it come next month.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Don’t Forget China’s “Other” Spinning Plate: Trillions In Hidden Bad Debt
Don’t Forget China’s “Other” Spinning Plate: Trillions In Hidden Bad Debt
To be sure, there’s every reason to devote nearly incessant media coverage to China’s bursting stock market bubble and currency devaluation.
The collapse of the margin fueled equity mania is truly a sight to behold and it’s made all the more entertaining (and tragic) by the fact that it represents the inevitable consequence of allowing millions of poorly educated Chinese to deploy massive amounts of leverage on the way to driving a world-beating rally that, at its height, saw day traders doing things like bidding a recently-public umbrella manufacturer up 2,700%.
The entertainment value has been heightened by what at this point has to be some kind of inside baseball competition among media outlets to capture the most hilarious picture of befuddled Chinese traders with their hands on their faces and/or heads with a board full of crashing stock prices visible in the background. Meanwhile, the world has recoiled in horror at China’s crackdown on the media and anyone accused of “maliciously” attempting to exacerbate the sell-off by engaging in what Beijing claims are all manner of “subversive” activities such as using the “wrong” words to describe the debacle and, well, selling stocks. Finally, China’s plunge protection has been widely criticized for, as we put it, “straying outside the bounds of manipulated market decorum.”
And then there’s the yuan devaluation that, as recent commentary out of the G20 makes abundantly clear, is another example of a situation where China will inexplicably be held to a higher standard than everyone else.That is, when China moves to support its export-driven economy it’s “competitive devaluation”, but when the ECB prints €1.1 trillion, it’s “stimulus.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
