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How Far Will You Go to Survive?

June 19, 2024

How Far Will You Go to Survive?

Cannibalism, infanticide, pet slaughter

Before I begin, let me apologize. This article is morbid. But it covers something that will probably happen in the future. It’s best to consider the subject now while still of sound mind.

The climate crisis is ultimately a food crisis. Unpredictable and changing weather patterns – compounded by resource shortages – threaten our ability to grow enough food to feed 8+ billion people.

The food crisis has already started. A visit to the grocery store reveals the increasing threat to food security. On a hotter planet, droughts worsen and floods persist increasing the probability of a breadbasket failure.

What happens to humans when food availability declines by 20, 50, 80%? The answer varies, but inevitably it all comes down to desperation, cognitive breakdown and violence.

Today these are words on your computer – ambiguous, nebulous. But what they really mean is unimaginable.

Side Rant: No, we can’t simply move farms to more ‘favorable’ locations. The food system depends on complex infrastructure that converts fossil fuels into the calories on your plate. This system evolved over generations, and would require a similar amount of time to fundamentally shift. Moreover, farming today already exists on the most arable land. What’s left is sub-par. Feeding today’s population depends on the unlikely combination of predictable weather, prime land and petrochemicals. Our population would have never reached today’s level without this lucky combination.

Some also argue that food supply isn’t at risk because food production has grown remarkably over the past century, primarily because we’ve become better at converting fossil fuels into calories. This argument suffers from normalcy bias. In reality, the world only surpassed 1.5 degrees above benchmark in 2023. We are just beginning to see the effects of our changing climate. Disasters are anticipated in the future, not the past.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Alien Planet Earth

June 12, 2024

Alien Planet Earth

The world of just a few lifetimes ago

Watching the climate change is like waiting for your hair to grow. You know it’s happening, but you can’t really tell from day to day. However, from a greater chronological distance, the damage humanity is inflicting on our planet is clear.

Where I live, bats have disappeared over the past couple decades. I remember watching them swoop at the evening insects, a couple even finding their way into my house. Now I never see them.

Others speak about fireflies that no longer dance at night. Or windshields bare of insect residue.

While insects are still a significant portion of global biomass, we’ve increasingly become a planet of humans, human food and anthropogenic mass.

We’ve terraformed the planet to feed our insatiable needs, at nature’s expense. This myopic stewardship pushes the planet to the edge. Robust systems are diverse and redundant. Ours is monolithic and fragile.

Source: Global human-made mass exceeds all living biomass

Wild animals are vanishing because humans are pushing them out and replacing them with domesticated animals. Today, it’s difficult to imagine what the world looked like hundreds of years ago, before we chopped down the old growth trees and overfished the oceans. Luckily, we have documented evidence from centuries past.

The photo below illustrates the sheer destruction humans can inflict.

“At the close of the 18th century, there were between 30 and 60 million bison on the continent. By the time of this photograph, that population was reduced to only 456 wild bison.” Source: The Conversation

Michigan Carbon Works in Rougeville, Mich., in 1892.

I recently found several accounts from the first Europeans that explored and settled in the Chesapeake bay area. There were more fish to catch than could be preserved.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Daily “Once in a Century” Floods

May 5, 2024

Daily “Once in a Century” Floods

Mother Nature’s revenge: Over the last month alone, all corners of the world were hit by major floods. While this is anecdotal, does it not feel like we’re witnessing a new natural disaster each day?

Daily "Once in a Century" Floods
Photo by Chris Gallagher / Unsplash
Picture this:

You come home to find one of your windows broken. It costs $500 to fix so you call someone to get it done.

The next week you come home and the same window is smashed. You chalk it up to bad luck and begrudgingly fork out another $500 to have it fixed.

The next week you come home and are shocked to discover 5 of your windows are smashed. Do you have $2500 to fix them? You find the money, but cut back on eating out for dinner.

The next week those same 5 windows are smashed again. Yet another $2500.

You’ve already cut unnecessary expenses and soon face a tough decision: do you fix the windows or stop contributing to your child’s education fund? Do you fix the windows or make your mortgage payment?

Now imagine every person on your block also had their windows broken, forcing them to cut the same expenses and make the same impossible choices.

This is how climate change erodes civilization. A relentless onslaught of expensive disasters, draining energy and resources from what makes life livable.

Disaster relief or social programs? Reconstruction or eldercare? Rescue efforts or defense?

There comes a day when you can’t have it all. Then, slowly but surely society is bled dry by a thousand cuts. Mother Nature wins.

It’s already happening.

Over the last month alone, all corners of the world were hit by major floods. While this is anecdotal, does it not feel like we’re witnessing a new natural disaster each day?

We may face the impossible choices sooner than expected.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

0.04%: Small Does Not = Immaterial

April 26, 2024

0.04%: Small Does Not = Immaterial

Think CO2 Concentration at 0.04% is Low? These 10 Toxins are Deadly at Far Lower Concentrations.

0.04%: Small Does Not = Immaterial
Photo by Markus Spiske / Unsplash
If you follow me on Twitter , you’re probably familiar with the onslaught of nonsense from the anti-science crowd.

I’m fine with respectful, reasoned responses, but many of the arguments are insulting, childish or conspiratorial.

I know, if I were trying to win these people over I shouldn’t belittle them. But I’m not trying to win them over. There’s plenty of objective data showing why they’re wrong, but they choose to believe their feelings and political loudmouths instead of science. Nothing I do will change their minds. So I continue to make my observations about the world – take it or leave it.

Frankly, I don’t understand how these people have the time to scour Twitter for posts outside their world view. This brigade of deniers with nothing better to do has clearly gone through the same training program. They make the same points and share the same charts. Often, their ‘rebuttal’ has nothing to do with the original tweet. It’s like they’re blindly copy-pasting from their “how to be a science-denier” guidebook.

I usually ignore (or block) these comments, but once in a while something drives me nuts.

One argument I’ve heard on repeat recently is that CO2 is only 0.04% of the atmosphere, therefore it cannot affect the climate.

I’m being kind when I say this is a simplistic argument.

Small does not = immaterial.

To prove my point, here are 10 things that are deadly at levels far below 0.04% concentration:

  1. Botulinum toxin: It can be lethal at about 1 nanogram per kilogram of body weight. This equates to incredibly minute concentrations, roughly 0.0000000001% in the body.
  2. Ricin: A dose of about 22 micrograms per kilogram of body weight can be lethal. This is also a very low concentration, about 0.0000022%.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

I Asked Gardeners How Climate Change Hits Them

December 5, 2023

I Asked Gardeners How Climate Change Hits Them

I connected with gardeners from across North America and Europe to understand how climate change is affecting their ability to grow our most valuable resource: food.

What does “climate change” actually mean at the grassroots level?

When most people hear the term they think of rising seas and hotter temperatures. Many are aware of potential collapse, but it all seems theoretical for now. The grocery stores remain stocked and we go about our daily lives.

While political leaders and scientists discuss broad mitigation strategies, the effects of climate change are already impacting those on the front lines of human survival.

Distant heat domes and flooding dominate the headlines, but food production is where it becomes real for all of us. Farmers and gardeners are the first to experience the early stages of the global crisis. We must pay attention to the signals food growers are sending.

I connected with gardeners from across North America and Europe to understand how climate change is affecting their ability to grow our most valuable resource: food.

The results were shocking.

Given the wide geographic scope of my audience I expected a range of feedback – some positive, some negative. What shocked me was the uniformity of responses around the world.

I expected some reporting bias in the responses because those experiencing negative changes would be more likely to respond. However, the survey was targeted at general gardeners (i.e. not at a collapse-aware or climate change population), so I anticipated a more even distribution of comments.

I’ve included a selection of the best verbatim comments below, but if you’d prefer a summary I’ve listed the common themes here:

  1. Extreme Weather Patterns: People are experiencing more extreme and unpredictable weather, with severe droughts, intense heat waves, early frosts, and heavy rains becoming more common…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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