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Forget El Nino, StormFest is about to Hit the West Coast

Forget El Nino, StormFest is about to Hit the West Coast

Things often calm down after January 1 during El Nino years….but not this year…with the U.S. West Coast from central California to Washington State about to be pummeled by a series of storms.   Rain, snow, wind?  Plenty for everyone.

A view of the latest infrared satellite imagery shows an amazing line-up of one storm after another stretching way into the Pacific.  A traffic jam of storms.
Let’s examine our stormy future, using a series of sea level pressure forecasts from the UW WRF weather forecast models (solid lines are sea level pressure, shading in lower atmosphere temperature).
At 10 PM today, a  strong low is just off the northern tip of Vancouver Island.
10AM Saturday brings an energetic low center into northern CA.
10 PM Sunday?   Another storm hits central Oregon!  And another system is in the wings.

That storm is right off our coast late Wednesday.

El Nino late winters generally have less action—not so this year! 
What about precipitation you ask?   Do you really want to know?  The accumulated total through 4 AM next Thursday is impressive, with 5-10 inches over many mountain areas and even 10-20 inches over parts of northern CA, the Olympics and southern BC.
 
Snow?   There will be abundant amounts.   For example, here is the accumulated snowfall for the 72 hours ending 4 PM Wednesday.  2-3 feet for the high terrain from the central Sierra Nevada to southern BC.  Our winter ski season is secure.
Wind?  You bet.  Each of these storms will bring strong, damaging winds to a favored area of the coastal zone and mountain peaks.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Air Quality Health Crisis from the California Wildfires

The Air Quality Health Crisis from the California Wildfires

The smoke from the California wildfires near Paradise, CA is producing the greatest air quality health crisis in the modern history of California.   Schools, universities, and sports events are being cancelled.
Although the terrible loss of life directly caused by wildfires in and near Paradise should not be minimized in any way, the health impacts of smoke will be profound, with millions of people being exposed to high concentrations of wood smoke.  Hospitalizations will surely increase and some increase mortality of vulnerable populations should be expected.

MODIS satellite imagery on Thursday at noon.  Dense smoke filled the central valley of CA and moved directly over the Bay Area.

For me, it is also personal.  My son, a healthy young man of 28 living in San Francisco, is greatly feeling that smoke as is his similarly aged co-workers and friends.  If young, healthy individuals are being sickened, can you image the impacts of those that are vulnerable?

The current air quality conditions around the Bay area are pretty extreme (see below), with much of San Francisco and neighboring areas in the very unhealthy range (200-300).   Looking at data around the world, it appears that San Francisco now has worse air quality than any major metropolitan area in the world, worse than even Beijing and Mumbai.

But what really stands out is the longevity of this poor air quality event– extending 7-9 days now for many central CA locations.    From my perusal of the air quality data of the Bay Area Air Quality Agency and other sources, this event is unprecedented in the 20 year period of data available.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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