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My Main Worry is Europe
My Main Worry is Europe
Can it get any better than this? That’s the question investors are asking themselves after an exceptional year. Despite a slowdown in the global economy and increasing trade tensions, almost every asset class is up for the past twelve months.
Mohamed El-Erian
Mohamed El-Erian is convinced that the world is nearing a tipping point. According to the internationally renowned economist who coined the term «New Normal», the faith of the global economy depends on a successful hand-off from monetary to fiscal policy and structural reforms. Otherwise, the world will sink into a mire of financial volatility and political collapse, he fears.
«As good as the ‹New Normal› was for the last ten years, I don’t think it will continue during the next ten years», says Mr. El-Erian in an extended interview with The Market.
In his view, Europe is getting much closer to a fateful junction. If the European economy hits stall speed, chances of a recession are increasing, Mr. El-Erian argues. Furthermore, he cautions that the U.S.-China deal will be a short-term truce since trade is no longer just about economics but also about national security.
Mr. El-Erian, investors are looking back at an amazing year with many turns and twists. What’s ahead for the financial markets in 2020?
There’s a tendency to what I call a «one issue market», meaning the market embraces a single issue and is influenced by that issue most of the time. For a long time, this issue used to be Central Banks, then it has evolved into trade. Trade will continue to be an important issue, even with the recent short-term truce. We have pressed the pause button on globalization. Now, the big question is if we press the play button again and continue to globalize as the market is assuming or if we step towards pressing the rewind button on globalization and deglobalize. That uncertainty is not going to go away. It’s going to be with us for the whole of 2020 because trade is no longer just about economics. It’s also about national security.
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James Grant: «Markets Trust Too Much in the Presence of Central Banks»
«We live in a hall of mirrors which our central banks have made for us.»
James Grant, Wall Street expert and editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns of the unseen consequences of super low interest rate and questions the extraordinary actions of the Swiss National Bank.
Nearly ten years after the financial crisis, extraordinary monetary policy has become the norm. The financial markets seem to like it: Stocks are close to record levels and the global economy is finally picking up. Nonetheless, James Grant sees no reason to sound the all-clear signal. The sharp thinking and highly regarded editor of the iconic Wall Street newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer» argues that historically low interest rates are distorting the perception of investors. »Principally, Mr. Draghi has robbed the marketplace of essential information», he criticizes the head of the European Central Bank for example. Highly proficient in financial history, Mr. Grant also questions the strategy of the Swiss National Bank. He fears that the voluntary depreciation of the Franc undermines the status of Switzerland as a global financial center.
Mr. Grant, monetary policy remains a primary theme for investors around the globe. What are your thoughts on the state of the financial world?
We live in a hall of mirrors which our central banks have made for us and that hall of mirrors distorts perceptions. That, I think is a big problem.
Why?
Interest rates are prices. In fact, they are the most consequential prices in a market economy because they discount future cash flows and they help us to set investment hurdles and to measure financial risks. In short, interest rates are prices and prices convey information and distorted prices convey misinformation.
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