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Japan Is Perhaps the Most Important Risk in the World
Speculation is mounting that the Bank of Japan is losing control of the bond market. Jim Grant, editor of «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», believes this could trigger a shock to the global financial system. He also explains why he expects further surges in inflation and why gold should be part of your portfolio.
The news caught markets off guard: On December 20th, the Bank of Japan surprisingly extended the target range for the yield on ten-year government bonds to plus/minus 0.5%. A move that not a single economist had expected.
This week, the Bank of Japan could announce a major policy shift amid rising government bond yields and a strengthening yen. Although barely a month has passed since the BoJ’s last meeting, the bond market is already testing the new upper limit of the yield curve control regime.
«To us, Japanese interest rate policy resembles the Berlin Wall of the late Cold War era, a stale anachronism that must sooner or later fall,» says Jim Grant. For the editor of the iconic investment bulletin «Grants’ Interest Rate Observer,» recent developments in Japan pose an underestimated risk to global financial markets. Not least because virtually no one is talking about it.
In an in-depth interview with The Market NZZ, which has been slightly edited for clarity, Mr. Grant explains what it means for financial markets if the Bank of Japan is forced to scrap its yield curve control policy. But first, he says why he doesn’t believe inflation will end soon, why bonds may be at the start of a long bear market, and why he believes gold is the best choice as a store of value.
«If the past is prologue and if the great bond bull market is over, then on form, we are looking at what could be a very prolonged and perhaps gradual move higher in interest rates»: Jim Grant.
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Negative Interest Rates Are Extremely Toxic
Negative Interest Rates Are Extremely Toxic
Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research, cautions against evermore unconventional monetary policy interventions. He fears that the global slowdown is going to get worse and he spots opportunities in long-term bonds and gold.
The global economy is on the brink: Europe is headed for recession, Japan as well and China’s growth rate is the slowest in almost thirty years. Only the economy in the United States seems to hold up. But for how long?
Mr. Bianco, the summer is basically over and we are heading into the final stretch of the year. What’s ahead for the financial markets in the coming months?
There are two issues at play: First, the trade and currency wars where the situation reminds me somewhat of «This Is Spinal Tap». It’s a cult satire movie from the eighties about a rock band and they coined the phrase «up to eleven» because that’s how high their amplifier went. So the expression «turning it up to eleven» refers to the act of taking something to an extreme. I’m saying this because I think Trump is “going to eleven” on trade: He’s going to turn it up so high that there is going to have to be a deal. That’s the way he wants to do this. He will just make it intolerable so everybody has to sit down and cut a deal.
What’s the other issue?
The inverted yield curve. The three-month/ten-year curve has been inverted since May and this is the market’s way of saying the Federal Funds Rate is too high and must come down. It is interesting how hard everyone is standing on their head to dismiss the yield curve and tell me why it’s different this time.
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The World-Wide Suppression of Interest Rates Has Been Something Very Near to a Crime
The World-Wide Suppression of Interest Rates Has Been Something Very Near to a Crime
James Grant, editor of the renowned investment newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», warns about the growing herd of corporate «zombies» and other fatal market distortions caused by modern monetary policy.
Once again, the expedition to go back to normal has been postponed. After the big market scare at the end of 2018, central banks have abolished their plans to tighten interest rates further. Wall Street loves it. The first quarter has been the best one for risk assets in a decade, and after Lyft’s successful going public, a record year for IPOs seems to be in sight. Jim Grant observes the madding crowd from a sober distance. «Interest rates are the traffic signals of a market economy. Turn them all green, and errors and pileups abound», says the sharp thinking editor of the iconic Wall Street newsletter «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. He states that a decade after the financial crisis, many companies are so heavily addicted to easy monetary policies that they wouldn’t be able to survive on their own. Consequentially, the proficient value seeker has a hard time to find attractive investments in today’s markets. Where he spots rare opportunities, he tells «The Market» in this extended interview.
Mr. Grant, once again, the Federal Reserve is giving investors the green light. US equities are off to their best start since 1998. What’s your take on the current state of the global financial markets?
Stocks are up, bond yields are down and economists are speaking of full employment: Everything seems perfect and improving. But I remain a non-believer in these modern monetary methods. If it were this easy, mankind would have solved the economic problems a long time ago.
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The crash is coming
The crash is coming
Fred Hickey, editor of the influential investment newsletter «The High-Tech Strategist», compares today’s state of the stock market with the peak of the dotcom bubble in the year 2000 and spots bright opportunities in the gold sector.
Few investors have a deeper understanding of the tech sector than Fred Hickey. All the more concerning is his warning when it comes to the outlook for US equities. The renowned editor of the popular investment newsletter «The High-Tech Strategist» draws alarming parallels to the bursting of the dotcom bubble in the year 2000 and spots high risks in stock market darlings like Amazon (AMZN 1864.42 -1.34%) and Apple (AAPL 223.77 -0.23%). For the industry veteran, one important reason to be concerned are rich valuations. He also sees troubles ahead with respect to the rise in interest rates and the growing mountain of debt around the world. Against this background, the outspoken contrarian sees bright opportunities in gold and in attractively priced mining stocks.
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Nobody knows what will happen
Howard Marks, Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital.
Howard Marks, Co-Chairman of the US investment firm Oaktree Capital warns that valuations in the financial markets are uncomfortably high and that investors are acting too complacent.
When Howard Marks speaks, financial markets listen. The renowned value investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital looks back at almost fifty years on Wall Street and has seen a thing or two during his successful career. His «Memos from the Chairman», which he sends sporadically to Oaktree’s clients are a must read for investors.
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China is going to hit a wall
“There is probably no company that is more representative of the investment bubble than Evergrande. It’s the biggest pyramid scheme the world has yet seen”, says Anne Stevenson-Yang
Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder and research director at J Capital, warns that the monster bubble in the Chinese housing market is ripe to pop and that the Chinese currency will crash.
It’s been exactly two years now since turmoil in China’s currency markets threw investors around the globe into panic. After the shock in late August of 2015, another tantrum followed in early 2016. Since then concerns about China have diminished. The consensus seems to be that Beijing once again has regained control. Nonetheless, Anne Stevenson-Yang remains skeptical. The co-founder of the influential research firm J Capital warns that the speculation in the Chinese real estate market is getting evermore excessive. “There is little comfort that the economy can go on for much longer without some catastrophic adjustment”, says the American who’s one of the most distinguished experts on China. She expects that China’s currency will devalue significantly and explains why the Chinese government is cracking down on HNA and other Chinese companies that have been on an overseas buying spree.
Ms. Stevenson-Yang, many investors don’t seem to care much about China anymore. How is the situation inside the Middle Kingdom two years after the currency shock of August 2015?
Everyone in China – from the government at every level to the people who work in banks, construction companies and real estate companies – is one hundred percent focused on how to push growth with more investment. That’s all people think about. Everybody is maniacally focused on the questions if investments will continue and if investments can continue to drive growth.
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