Home » Posts tagged 'central planners'

Tag Archives: central planners

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Post Archives by Category

Supply Chain Disruptions Impact on Global Growth

Supply Chain Disruptions Impact on Global Growth

In a previous post, we mentioned that stagflation is a risk that central planners are ignoring. However, this risk is not just an isolated challenge focused on economies like Mexico, India or Argentina. Even in countries like Germany and Japan the trend of inflation, particularly in non-replicable goods, is diverging from economic growth. Inflation is picking up, while growth is slowing down.

Central banks continue to pump liquidity to disguise the rising risks to the global economy, but the coronavirus epidemic is showing to investors three important lessons:

Containment of the epidemic is taking significantly more time than what many market participants estimated. Calls fro a rapid recovery that would not only offset the first-quarter impact but improve it, are disproved.

The impact on supply chains is significantly larger than most analysts expected. China is now 17% of the global economy and provinces that count for 89% of the country’s exports remain in lockdown.

Global excess capacity is a mitigating factor on rising inflation only for replicable and highly competitive goods. There is clearly ample capacity to offset supply chain disruptions in energy commodities, metals, and industrial goods but there are severe problems surfacing in sectors that are very dependent on Chinese supply, particularly auto parts and technology components. 

Market participants started to realize last week that the coronavirus effect was not going to be a two-month issue that would be followed by strong growth. In a recent PriceWaterhouse Coopers report, it showed that the global impact could reach at least 0.7% of GDP. This estimate uses Eric Toner´s infected and casualty estimates (John Hopkins Center for Health Security) and the economic impact using McKibbins & Lee methodology (the ones that estimated the SARS impact).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

New World Order in Meltdown, But Russia Stronger Than Ever

New World Order in Meltdown, But Russia Stronger Than Ever

Last week was full of portentous events. Only somebody who has not been awake for the last few years will fail to realize how these at first sight unconnected events are part of the same matrix. There was the ever louder talk in mainstream media about an approaching global recession, inverted yield curves and the negative yields, which tell us that the Western financial system is basically in coma and kept alive only by generous IV injections of central bank liquidity. By now it has dawned on people that the central bankers acting as central planners in a command economy and printing money (aka quantitative easing) to fuel asset bubbles are about to wipe off the last vestiges of what used to be a market economy.

Then we saw Trump taking new twitter swipes at China in his on-and-off “great trade deal” and the stock markets moving like a roller coaster in reaction to each new twitter salvo. Also, we had both Trump and Macron sweet talking about getting Russia back and again renaming their club G8. Last Tuesday at a G7 presser in Biarritz, the Rothschild groomed Macron took it one step further opening up about the reasons why they all of a sudden longed for friendship with Russia: “We are living the end of Western hegemony.” In the same series, Britain’s new government under Boris Johnson was telling his colleagues in Biarritz that he is now decisively going for a no-deal Brexit, after which he went back to London and staged a coup d’état by suspending parliament to ensure no elected opposition interfered with it.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The End of Growth

The End of Growth

Either it ends, or we do.
More and more, I hear that folks are feeling frustrated and betrayed, combined with a sense of loss and despair. I feel this way, too.

As I’ve written recently, I observe this is due more than anything else to a widespread demoralization society is suffering from.

Certainly the statistics reflect this. Suicides in the US are up 30% since the turn of the millennium, obesity is at epidemic proportions, mortality rates are rising especially among white working-class Americans, and our national opioid addiction is now the “epidemic of epidemics.”

To these we can also add falling birthrates and the truly startling shift towards a younger age for the onset of depression; declining from age 30 now to age…14(!)

When an organism gives up on self-care, breeding, or its will to live, it’s suffering from a tremendous amount of strain that is cutting it off from its own life force.  A dispirited lion wasting away in a cage has a lot in common with the average American today.

At a deep level, what ails us is not a host of unrelated, intractable problems, but the fact that our model of pursuing eternal economic growth simply isn’t working anymore. It doesn’t work for the planet’s increasingly strained ecosystems, nor does it work for the bottom 99% of folks in society (i.e., the non-elites).

The various health epidemics noted above are merely symptoms of a larger acute spiritual crisis.

But viewed at a certain angle, this may be a good sign.

Why? Because in order to shift from one model to another, the old one first has to become unbearable.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Kuroda-San in the Mouth of Madness

Zerohedge recently reported on an interview given by Lithuanian ECB council member Vitas Vasiliauskas, which demonstrates how utterly deluded the central planners in the so-called “capitalist” economies of the West have become. His statements are nothing short of bizarre (“we are magic guys!”) – although he is of course correct when he states that a central bank can never “run out of ammunition”.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda attends a news conference at the BOJ headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, December 18, 2015.BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda     Photo credit: Toru Hanai / Reuters

The mental state of BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda may be even more precarious though. As Marketwatch reports, he recently gave an interview to German financial newspaper Börsen-Zeitung, in which he inter alia threatened even more BoJ intervention:

Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank “can still ease [its] monetary policy substantially” if necessary, in an interview with German financial newspaper Börsen-Zeitung published Wednesday. 

This is per se not surprising, although one wonders what Kuroda thinks can possibly be achieved by upping the ante on this:

1-BoJ assets vs. the NikkeiAssets held by the BoJ vs. the Nikkei index – April 1999 = 100 – click to enlarge.

We have added the Nikkei Index to the chart of BoJ assets above because inflating stock prices is one of the central bank’s declared goals – its stake in ETFs listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange has in the meantime exploded to more than 50% (which we believe is eventually going to create a socialist calculation-type problem).

The results of this mad-cap buying spree are decidedly underwhelming so far. Although the pockets of central banks are of unlimited depth, this is also no big surprise, as central bankers are probably the worst traders in the world.  One also wonders how further monetary easing is supposed to “improve” on this situation:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Things Fall Apart

Things Fall Apart 

“Things fall apart”is an apt sub-title for historians to apply to the first half of the 21st century. The phrase properly describes the collapse of the domestic and foreign policy of the United States. Further, it also is appropriate to describe the happenings in Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

freedom15Things fall apart describes the economy of every developed nation and the balance of power that the world has known since the end of World War II.

The powers that be have lost control. After almost a century of playing the Wizard of Oz, the curtain is disintegrating. Institutions to ensure control, stability and prosperity are failing. People and markets were not to be trusted and most of these institutions were established to protect against such freedom. Bureaucrats, central planners and big governments were to be the answers for a better world.

The damage of nearly a century of this nonsense is suddenly becoming evident. Things fall apart is characterized by institutions that no longer are trusted or believed in. Few institutions are seen to work and when they do they are increasingly seen as favoring the elites at the expense of the masses. No institution is under greater scrutiny as the cloak of wisdom is being destroyed by the hard facts of reality is that of central banking, the corner piece of socialism even at the height of the Thatcher–Reagan movement back toward markets. The Daily Bell writes about the US Federal Reserve, although other central banks are incurring similar doubts and distrust:

Things Fall Apart Around Janet Yellen

By Daily Bell Staff – October 16, 2015

yellen7 - CopyFed policymakers downplay divisions on U.S. rate hike … Federal Reserve policymakers are not as divided as it may appear and are generally operating under the same framework for determining when to raise interest rates, one Fed official said on Thursday, while another said the differences of opinion reflect the countervailing economic data. Many Fed watchers are exasperated by the mixed messages from the U.S. central bank in recent weeks. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and other officials have said they expect a rate hike will be needed by the end of this year, but two Fed governors this week urged caution. – Reuters

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China “Punishes” Hundreds For “Maliciously” Manipulating The Market

China “Punishes” Hundreds For “Maliciously” Manipulating The Market

The deadly chemical blast in the Chinese port of Tianjin was a preventable catastrophe in which more than 100 people lost their lives thanks in part to what looks like the political connections of the warehouse’s owners and although an upfront, transparent investigation and honest assessment of the environmental impact is likely the only way to safeguard the public and ensure it doesn’t happen again, no one believes the Chinese government has the will to conduct such an investigation.

But whatever you do, do not say any of the above if you live in China.

Similarly, China’s stock market collapse was an entirely preventable financial catastrophe caused by the unchecked accumulation of margin debt and the encouragement of speculation, and the bursting of the equity bubble which began in June has been nothing short of a debacle that’s led to international condemnation and accusations that, even in a centrally planned world, Beijing’s particular brand of intervention is so egregious as to stray outside the bounds of manipulated market decorum.

But if you live in China, don’t say that either. 

Over the last two months there were signs that Beijing would soon resort to outright, sweeping censorship as it relates to both the stock market and the Tianjin blast. For instance, in July, phrases like “rescue the market” were reportedly banned and in the wake of the Tianjin disaster, hundreds of social media accounts were shut down for spreading “blast rumors.”

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Jackson Hole – Meeting of the Physics Envy Brigade

Jackson Hole – Meeting of the Physics Envy Brigade

Planners Meet to Discuss the Impossible

The Jackson Hole pow-wow takes place this weekend. A more revolting get-together of actual and armchair central planners (i.e., the advisors to the planners, many of whom see themselves as planners-in-waiting) could hardly be imagined. One has to wonder how much more damage they will be allowed to inflict before someone finally says “enough!”. The parlous state of the global economy and the series of booms and busts we have experienced over the past 20 to 30 years are almost exclusively their doing (some of the responsibility has to be shared by politicians and other bureaucrats, who have hopelessly over-regulated and overtaxed economies, especially in the developed world).

fischer1Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer, one of the keynote speakers at the Jackson Hole conference – more on him further below
Photo credit: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

In their conceit these supposed “wise men” (we prefer the more fitting term “high IQ morons”, h/t Bill Bonner) seem to believe that bureaucrats can actually plan the economy and will deliver an outcome that is superior to that the free market would provide. In spite of all the evidence to the contrary that has amassed over what are by now centuries, they actually appear to be buying their own BS, which makes them especially dangerous.

As Ludwig von Mises has shown in 1920 already (in his seminal monograph Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth), central planning of the economy is literally impossible. Mises focused on the lack of a price system once the material factors of production are under government control and no longer freely tradable. Without proper prices, it is impossible to engage in rational economic calculation and hence it is no longer possible to properly allocate scarce resources.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
Click on image to read excerpts

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Click on image to purchase @ FriesenPress