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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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The Controversy around Skin in the Game

The Controversy around Skin in the Game Skin in the Game is another addition to the Incerto, now volume 5; I avoided duplication by referring to where in the Incerto some points were developed such as via negativa or monoculture of forecasters or expert problems. You simply don’t repeat in chapter 23 what was said in […]

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The World is Awash in Bullshit

The World is Awash in Bullshit This is really the best paragraph I have read so far in 2017: The world is awash in bullshit. Politicians are unconstrained by facts. Science is conducted by press release. So-called higher education often rewards bullshit over analytic thought. Startup culture has elevated bullshit to high art. Advertisers wink conspiratorially […]

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The High Cost of Honesty in a Sea of Low-Cost BS

The High Cost of Honesty in a Sea of Low-Cost BS As the cost of propagating BS drops to near-zero, the value of honestly achieved analyses and conclusions rises proportionately.  Longtime correspondent Michael M. recently recommended this long-form article  The Market For Lemons, The Market For Bullshit, And The Great Cascading Credence Crash Of 2016. The […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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