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Weekly Commentary: Turkey (Nudged Over the Cliff)

August 14, 2018

Weekly Commentary: Turkey (Nudged Over the Cliff) The Turkish lira sank 13.7% in chaotic Friday trading. The lira’s 21.0% “worst week in 17 years” collapse pushed y-t-d losses to 41.1%. Turkish 10-year yields spiked to almost 21%, before retreating somewhat. After beginning the year at 155, Turkey sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spiked 166 bps […]

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“EM FX Never Lies” – BofA Warns As Brazilian Real Is Routed

June 7, 2018

“EM FX Never Lies” – BofA Warns As Brazilian Real Is Routed Mohamed El-Erian warned overnight that Brazilian policy makers are “in quite a tricky position — and there’s little room for error,” and judging buy this morning’s rout in the real, he is dead right. Crippling nationwide trucker strikes, which prompted the resignation of […]

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Brazil Steps Up Intervention to Support the Real: Reflections on Currency Wars

June 6, 2018

Brazil Steps Up Intervention to Support the Real: Reflections on Currency Wars Winning currency wars is easy. As with trade wars, one may not care for the end result. Bloomberg reports Brazil Steps Up Intervention as the Real Crashes Toward Two-Year Low. Brazil’s central bank bolstered efforts to shore up the currency after it tumbled […]

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Weekly Commentary: Crisis Watch

May 19, 2018

Weekly Commentary: Crisis Watch Where to begin? Contagion… The Argentine peso dropped another 5.0% this week, bringing y-t-d losses to 23.7%. The Turkish lira fell 3.9%, boosting 2018 losses to 15.4%. As notable, the Brazilian real dropped 3.7% (down 11.5% y-t-d), and the South African rand sank 4.0% (down 3.0% y-t-d). The Colombian peso fell […]

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Brazilian Real Crashes Most In 4 Years As Hope Fades

December 30, 2015

Brazilian Real Crashes Most In 4 Years As Hope Fades Following recent strength on the heels of hope for a new finance minister, news that Ruosseff has sent the minimum-wage-hike Bill to Congress appears to have crushed the hype of any fiscal rectitude and sent Real tumbling. Down over 4% – the most since September 2011 […]

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Is Brazil About to Drag Down Spain’s Biggest Bank?

September 13, 2015

Is Brazil About to Drag Down Spain’s Biggest Bank? The timing could not have been worse. In July last year, an analyst working for Banco Santander Brasil did something he shouldn’t have. He warned the firm’s private banking clients about the economic risks posed by the reelection of Brazil’s scandal-tarnished president, Dilma Rousseff. Those risks […]

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Brazil’s Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse

January 30, 2015

Brazil’s Economy Is On The Verge Of Total Collapse Back when the BRICs were the source of marginal global growth, the punditry couldn’t stop praising them. However, in the past year, now that China’s housing bubble has burst and its shadow banking system has imploded, those who remember what BRIC actually stood for are about […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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