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Olduvai III: Catacylsm
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Oil’s Fate Hinges On OPEC+ Hanging Tough

Oil’s Fate Hinges On OPEC+ Hanging Tough The global oil market is in OPEC+ walk-up mode. That should keep prices supported this week ahead of the (now online) gaggle, which falls on June 2. After that, price direction hinges on the immediate fallout from the meeting, plus bets about the market’s 2H trajectory. Conventional wisdom points […]

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Next Inflation Shock Comes From Resource Nationalism

Next Inflation Shock Comes From Resource Nationalism First there was supply-chain disruption brought on by the coronavirus, then war in Ukraine further rocked commodity markets. The next bout of inflation via raw material prices will be brought on by resource nationalism. While the cost pressures brought on by the difficulty in moving goods in a […]

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“Potential For Extreme Havoc”: $50 Trillion Question Is What If Yields Spike Higher

“Potential For Extreme Havoc”: $50 Trillion Question Is What If Yields Spike Higher The size of the global government bond market surged by $10 trillion in the space of two years to reach about $50 trillion. Those outstanding borrowings are at least one gorilla in the room as investors gear up for a year in […]

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Food Inflation Is the 2022 Crisis, Not Supply Chains

Food Inflation Is the 2022 Crisis, Not Supply Chains The real trouble will start when this year’s energy crisis morphs into next year’s food inflation problem. We’ve all become armchair inflation experts. And why not? It’s almost impossible for anyone to keep getting it as systematically incorrect as professional economists have done this year. It’s time for the […]

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“Get Ready For Some Serious Sticker Shock Very Soon: This Jump In Inflation Won’t Be Transient”

“Get Ready For Some Serious Sticker Shock Very Soon: This Jump In Inflation Won’t Be Transient” Semiconductor Costs Could Lead to a Shock This Fall Consumer confidence is key to how people plan to spend. You can see it in the chart below. And as the chip shortage grows, expect the higher prices to begin […]

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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