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Arthur Berman: “The Devil is in the Diesel”
Arthur Berman: “The Devil is in the Diesel”
U.S. Oil Dominance Is Coming To An End
U.S. Oil Dominance Is Coming To An End U.S.’ energy dominance agenda is dead as the country’s shale industry is looking at a steep production decline. The U.S. tight oil or shale rig count has fallen 69% this year from 539 in mid-March to 165 last week. U.S. oil import dependence is set to grow […]
Why Oil Prices Could Still Go Lower
Why Oil Prices Could Still Go Lower Crude markets had a panic attack in August and September that sent prices soaring. Sanity is now returning. Prices have fallen but are likely to move even lower over the next few months. The panic attack was caused largely by Trump’s August 7 announcement that sanctions would be […]
Are Natural Gas Prices Set To Spike?
Are Natural Gas Prices Set To Spike? Natural gas storage is at record low levels but prices are falling going into winter heating season. Markets seem to be betting that wellhead supply will be sufficient to cover demand this winter. That may be but at what gas prices? This is a game of natural gas […]
Skeptic Geologist Warns: Permian’s Best Years Are Behind Us
Skeptic Geologist Warns: Permian’s Best Years Are Behind Us Geologist Arthur Berman, who has been skeptical about the shale boom, warned on Thursday that the Permian’s best years are gone and that the most productive U.S. shale play has just seven years of proven oil reserves left. “The best years are behind us,” Bloomberg quoted […]
Why Investors Should Beware Of The Bakken
Why Investors Should Beware Of The Bakken It’s the beginning of the end for the Bakken Shale play. The decline in Bakken oil production that started in January 2015 is probably not reversible. New well performance has deteriorated, gas-oil ratios have increased and water cuts are rising. Much of the reservoir energy from gas expansion […]
Why Oil Prices May Not Move Higher
Why Oil Prices May Not Move Higher The oil-price rally that began in mid-February will almost certainly collapse. It is similar to the false March-June 2015 rally. In both cases, prices increased largely because of sentiment. As in the earlier rally, current storage volumes are too large and demand is too weak to sustain higher […]
Oil Fundamentals Could Cause Oil Prices To Fall, Fast.
Oil Fundamentals Could Cause Oil Prices To Fall, Fast. Oil prices should fall, possibly hard, in coming weeks. That is because fundamentals do not support the present price. Prices should fall to around $30 once the empty nature of an OPEC-plus-Russia production freeze is understood. A return to the grim reality of over-supply and the […]
OPEC Will Not Blink First
OPEC Will Not Blink First An OPEC production cut is unlikely until U.S. production declines by about another million barrels per day (mmbpd). OPEC won’t cut because it would accomplish nothing beyond a short-term increase in price. Carefully placed comments by OPEC and Russian oil ministers about the possibility of production cuts achieve almost the […]
Oil Markets Are Balancing Faster Than IEA Would Have Us Believe
Oil Markets Are Balancing Faster Than IEA Would Have Us Believe Fundamentals point toward market balance but pessimism is dragging oil prices down. IEA has apparently succumbed to this negativity but their data suggests that things are getting better, not worse. In a business-as-usual world in which nothing unusual happens, the world will be close […]
As Rig Count Plunges, Has U.S. Oil Reached Its Capitulation Point?
As Rig Count Plunges, Has U.S. Oil Reached Its Capitulation Point? The big drop in rig count for the week that ended last Friday points to capitulation by U.S. shale drillers. The total land rig count fell by 37 rigs and the horizontal rig count fell by 30 rigs (Figure 1). Figure 1. U.S. shale play […]
Arthur Berman: Why The Price Of Oil Must Rise
Arthur Berman: Why The Price Of Oil Must Rise Why a supply shock is inevitable Geologist Arthur Berman explains why today’s low oil prices are not here to stay, something investors and consumers alike should be very aware of. The crazy-low prices we’re currently experiencing are due to an oversupply created by geopolitics and (historic) […]
Rig Count: Capitulation?
Rig Count: Capitulation? After last week’s moderate drop in rig count, the amount of horizontal oil rigs seems to implode this week. The U.S. land rig count was down 37 this week and the land horizontal rig count was down 30. Is this capitulation? Hard to say but it’s the biggest drop since March 2015. […]
Why The U.S. Can’t Be Called A ‘Swing Producer’
Why The U.S. Can’t Be Called A ‘Swing Producer’ Daniel Yergin and other experts say that U.S. tight oil is the swing oil producer of the world. They are wrong. It is preposterous to say that the world’s largest oil importer is also its swing producer. There are two types of oil producers in the world: those who […]
Just About Every Part of the Permian Basin is Unprofitable at $30 Per Barrel
Just About Every Part of the Permian Basin is Unprofitable at $30 Per Barrel Less than 2 percent of Permian basin tight oil wells are commercial at $30 per barrel oil prices. Sorry about that. I know that many believe that U.S. shale and tight oil plays are commercial even at current low oil prices […]
