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Inconvenient energy fact of the day

February 22, 2018

Inconvenient energy fact of the day

In 2016, solar and wind provided just 0.8% of the total world’s energy (Total Primary Energy Demand (TPED)), even after trillions of dollars in taxpayer-extracted subsidies, and will reach only a 3.6% share of energy in 2040, according to the International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2017 forecast (see graphic above). The world’s energy future of tomorrow, even almost a quarter century from now in 2040, will look very much like it does today, with fossil fuels supplying the large majority of our energy (81% today vs. 75% in 2040) and solar and wind playing a relatively minor role as energy sources.

Sources: Bjorn Lomborg and Matt Ridley (“Shale is the Real Energy Revolution”).

Could there be a coup in Turkey?

March 27, 2016

Could there be a coup in Turkey?

The situation in Turkey is bad and getting worse. It’s not just the deterioration in security amidst a wave of terrorism. Public debt might be stable, but private debt is out-of-control, the tourism sector is in free-fall, and the decline in the currency has impacted every citizen’s buying power. There is a broad sense, election results notwithstanding, that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is out-of-control. He is imprisoning opponents, seizing newspapers left and right, and building palaces at the rate of a mad sultan or aspiring caliph. In recent weeks, he has once again threatened to dissolve the constitutional court. Corruption is rife. His son Bilal reportedly fled Italy on a forged Saudi diplomatic passport as the Italian police closed in on him in an alleged money laundering scandal. His outbursts are raising eyebrows both in Turkey and abroad. Even members of his ruling party whisper about his increasing paranoia which, according to some Turkish officials, has gotten so bad that he seeks to install anti-aircraft missiles at his palace to prevent airborne men-in-black from targeting him in a snatch-and-grab operation.

Pedestrians walk along Istiklal street, a major shopping and tourist district, in central Istanbul, Turkey March 20, 2016, a day after a suicide bomb attack. REUTERS/Osman Orsal.

Pedestrians walk along Istiklal street, a major shopping and tourist district, in central Istanbul, Turkey March 20, 2016, a day after a suicide bomb attack. REUTERS/Osman Orsal.

Turks — and the Turkish military — increasingly recognize that Erdoğan is taking Turkey to the precipice. By first bestowing legitimacy upon imprisoned Kurdish leader Abdullah Öcalan with renewed negotiations and then precipitating renewed conflict, he has taken Turkey down a path in which there is no chance of victory and a high chance of de facto partition. After all, if civil war renews as in the 1980s and early 1990s, Turkey’s Kurds will be hard-pressed to settle for anything less, all the more so given the precedent now established by their brethren in Iraq and Syria.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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