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Inflation, real interest rates revisited
Gold prices ticked higher on Tuesday after inflation data showed US consumer prices rose in March for the fourth straight month and inflation hit its highest level in 2.5 years.
Gold for June delivery climbed $8.50, or half a percent, to $1,741.20 an ounce, and spot gold at time of writing was trading at an even $1,745/oz, reversing a year-to-date downward trend. Since January, the yellow metal has fallen 8.7% due to a combination of factors including a stronger US dollar, higher US treasury yields and better macroeconomic data, as covid-19 inoculation programs gather pace.
However, the blistering speed of economic recovery in the US — economists are predicting annual GDP growth of 6.5%, versus a 2020 contraction of 3.5% — is stoking fears of inflation.
Unwilling to see their gains eroded in the near future by a loss of purchasing power (inflation increases the prices of goods and services over time, effectively decreasing the amount you can buy with a dollar in future), investors are dumping bonds and piling into riskier asset classes like stocks, causing bond prices to fall and yields to climb. The interest rate on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has been steadily increasing and now sits at 1.69%, after bumping along at between 0.5% and 1% for most of 2020 as investors rotated funds into Treasuries (and gold) as protection against pandemic-related market turbulence.
Consumer prices rise
The US Federal Reserve, whose dual mandate is to keep inflation in the “Goldilocks zone” of around 2% and to control unemployment, has been downplaying inflation, telling the public that even if prices rise, it will only be temporary.
In a recent interview with ’60 Minutes’, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed won’t raise interest rates based on short-term jumps in inflation readings.
Ghost Empires
Ghost EmpiresAs a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information
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Drought is a normal recurring feature of the climate in most parts of the world. It doesn’t get the attention of a tornado, hurricane or flood. Instead, it’s a slower and less obvious, a much quieter disaster creeping up on us unawares.
Climate change is currently warming many regions, warmer temperatures increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves and droughts.
We can prepare for some climate change consequences with public education, water conservation programs, limiting pumping from our freshwater aquifers to recharge rates and putting in place early warning systems for extreme heat events.
Unfortunately some things cannot be prepared for…like the pervasiveness and persistence of a hundred year drought caused by climate change.
The collapse of some of the world’s earliest known empires was because of drought.
Akkadians
The Akkadians of Mesopotamia forged the world’s first empire more than 4,300 years ago. The Akkad’s seized control of cities along the Euphrates River and swept up onto the plains to the north – in a short period of time their empire stretched 800 miles, all the way from the Persian Gulf to the headwaters of the Euphrates, through what is now Iraq, Syria and parts of southern Turkey.
Tell Leilan was a small village founded by some of the world’s first farmers. It’s located in present day Syria and has existed for over 8,000 years. The Akkad’s conquered Tell Leilan around 2300 B.C. and the area became the breadbasket for the Akkadian empire.
After only a hundred years the Akkadian empire started to collapse.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
BC earthquakes and fracking
BC earthquakes and frackingAs a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information
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There is no fracking going on right now in northeastern British Columbia, the epicenter of the province’s oil and gas production. Hydraulic fracturing operations have been shut down there for a month due to earthquakes that happened on Nov. 29 about 20 kilometers southeast of Fort St. John.
The BC Oil and Gas Commission (BCOGC), which both regulates and promotes the industry (more on that below), is investigating the 4.5 magnitude quake, followed by two smaller aftershocks. One of the largest oil and gas producers in Canada, Canadian Natural Resources, was fracking in the area.
The commission has linked previous earthquake incidents to increased seismicity, though it states on its website that none of the events in BC have resulted in environmental or property damage. Yet.
For those who have been following our investigations into the BC government’s plans to develop a liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry in BC – something we vehemently disagree with considering its costs will vastly outweigh its benefits – there is an irony in the operations suspension.
A couple of months ago the BC Premier and the Prime Minister gathered with industry representatives to announce the final investment decision by Shell and its Asian partners to go ahead with LNG Canada. The first-in-BC $40 billion LNG compression plant, to be built in Kitimat, will receive natural gas via a new pipeline – filled with the same fracked gas that is causing earthquakes and shutting down the industry while the BCOGC investigates. It would be downright shocking if they found anything that would slow fracking in northeastern BC, which supplies natural gas to BC and Alberta, as well as valuable liquefied gas products like diluted bitumen (dilbit) to the oilsands, not to mention hundreds of millions in royalty payments to the BC and Alberta governments.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Ghost Empires
Ghost Empires
As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information
Drought is a normal recurring feature of the climate in most parts of the world. It doesn’t get the attention of a tornado, hurricane or flood. Instead, it’s a slower and less obvious, a much quieter disaster creeping up on us unawares.
Climate change is currently warming many regions, warmer temperatures increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves and droughts.
We can prepare for some climate change consequences with public education, water conservation programs, limiting pumping from our freshwater aquifers to recharge rates and putting in place early warning systems for extreme heat events.
Unfortunately some things cannot be prepared for…like the pervasiveness and persistence of a hundred year drought caused by climate change.
The collapse of some of the world’s earliest known empires was because of drought.
Akkadians
The Akkadians of Mesopotamia forged the world’s first empire more than 4,300 years ago. The Akkad’s seized control of cities along the Euphrates River and swept up onto the plains to the north – in a short period of time their empire stretched 800 miles, all the way from the Persian Gulf to the headwaters of the Euphrates, through what is now Iraq, Syria and parts of southern Turkey.
Tell Leilan was a small village founded by some of the world’s first farmers. It’s located in present day Syria and has existed for over 8,000 years. The Akkad’s conquered Tell Leilan around 2300 B.C. and the area became the breadbasket for the Akkadian empire.
After only a hundred years the Akkadian empire started to collapse.
In 1978, Harvey Weiss, a Yale archaeologist, began excavating the city of Tell Leilan. Everywhere Weiss dug he encountered a layer of dirt that contained no signs of human habitation. This dirt layer corresponded to the years 2200 to 1900 B.C. – the time of Akkad’s fall.
…click on the link above to read the rest of the article…
