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Worst Case Scenario = 73% Down From Here

WORST CASE SCENARIO = 73% DOWN FROM HERE

As the stock market gyrates higher and lower in a fairly narrow range, the spokesmodels and talking heads on CNBC breathlessly regurgitate the standard bullish mantra designed to keep the muppets in the market. They are employees of a massive corporation whose bottom line and stock price depend upon advertising revenues reaped from Wall Street and K Street. They aren’t journalists. They are propagandists disguised as journalists. Their job is to keep you confused, misinformed, and ignorant of the true facts.

Based on the never ending happy talk and buy now gibberish spouted by the pundit lackeys, you would think we are experiencing a bull market of epic proportions and anyone who hasn’t been in the market has missed out on tremendous gains. There’s one little problem with that bit of propaganda. It’s completely false. The Fed turned off the QE spigot at the end of October 2014 and the market has gone nowhere ever since.

QE1 began in September 2008, taking the Fed balance sheet from $900 billion to $2.3 trillion by June 2010. This helped halt the stock market crash and drove the S&P 500 up by 50% from its March 2009 lows. QE2 was implemented in November 2010 and increased the Fed balance sheet to $2.9 trillion by the end of 2011. This resulted in an unacceptable 10% increase in the S&P 500, so the Fed cranked up their printing presses to hyper-speed and launched the mother of all quantitative easings, with QE3 pushing their balance sheet to $4.5 trillion by October 2014, when they ceased their “Save a Wall Street Banker” campaign.

As Main Street dies, Wall Street has been paved in gold. The S&P 500 soared to all-time highs, with 40% gains from the September 2012 QE3 launch until its cessation in October 2014. Like a heroine addict, Wall Street has experienced withdrawal symptoms ever since, and begs for more monetary easing injections.

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DANGER WILL ROBINSON

DANGER WILL ROBINSON

It’s funny how the truth sometimes leaks out from the government. I’m guessing that Mr. Ted Berg will not be working for the Office of Financial Research much longer. This new agency was created by the Dodd Frank Law and is supposed to protect consumers from the evil Wall Street banks. But we all know the evil Wall Street banks wrote the bill, have gutted the major provisions, have captured all the regulatory agencies, own the Federal Reserve, and control all the politicians in Washington D.C. So, when an honest government analyst writes an honest truthful report that unequivocally proves the stock market is grossly overvalued and headed for a crash, the Wall Street banking cabal will surely call the top government apparatchiks to voice their displeasure. Truth is treason in an empire of lies.

The soon to be fired Mr. Berg’s verbiage is subtle, but pretty clear.

Option-implied volatility is quite low today, but markets can change rapidly and unpredictably, a phenomenon described here as “quicksilver markets.” The volatility spikes in late 2014 and early 2015 may foreshadow more turbulent times ahead. Although no one can predict the timing of market shocks, we can identify periods when asset prices appear abnormally high, and we can address the potential implications for financial stability.

Markets can change rapidly and unpredictably. When these changes occur they are sharpest and most damaging when asset valuations are at extreme highs. High valuations have important implications for expected investment returns and, potentially, for financial stability.

However, quicksilver markets can turn from tranquil to turbulent in short order. It is worth noting that in 2006 volatility was low and companies were generating record profit margins, until the business cycle came to an abrupt halt due to events that many people had not anticipated.

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Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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