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While the most recent set of troubles plaguing Deutsche Bank have been duly documented here, most recently yesterday when the stock price tumbled once again just shy of all time lows over fears the bank’s multi-billion DOJ settlement could severely impact its liquidity and/or solvency, this may be the first time we have heard the “n“-word tossed around in an official German publication: as Germany’s top financial newspaper, Handelsblatt said, “German financial officials reacted with shock and dismay to the leaking of a U.S. government demand for a $14 billion fine against Deutsche Bank, which may ultimately need a state bailout to pay the bill.”

Some more details from the article titled “Deutsche Bank in New Existential Crisis“:

Discussion of Deutsche Bank’s shaky capitalization has burst back to life, with renewed speculation on whether Chief Executive John Cryan will be forced to raise new capital, which he had previously ruled out, or make emergency asset sales.

Some have even raised the possibility of a government bailout of Germany’s largest bank, which would be a defining event and a symbolic blow to the image of Europe’s largest economy.

And some more troubling truth:

Many analysts fear the bank may be in a vicious circle, with losses and cancelled dividends pushing down share prices and preventing the rebuilding of a capital buffer.

One thing is clear. With this many unresolved legal issues, any recapitalization is likely to mean selling new shares at knock-down prices. One bright spot for the bank may be ongoing negotiations with finance company Phoenix Group for the sale of Abbey Life, its British insurance subsidiary.

Phoenix recently confirmed talks were at an advanced stage. Any sale would bring €1 billion into Deutsche Bank’s coffers – a welcome sum, but not enough to solve the bank’s problems.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deutsche Bank’s CoCo Bonds Speak of Fear of the Worst

September 17, 2016

Deutsche Bank’s CoCo Bonds Speak of Fear of the Worst

The fine that broke the bank?

Deutsche Bank investors just can’t catch a break. They keep thinking that shares have dropped so low that it’s time to grab them. Herd instinct sets in, and this buying perks up the shares. Then the bank’s sins once again come to the foreground. And what investors had grabbed was a falling knife, and fingers are now getting sliced off.

Early morning on Friday in Frankfurt – in the US, Thursday after the markets had closed, a strategic time for bad news – Deutsche Bank announced that the US Justice Department was trying to wring $14 billion out it. The fine is based on the investigation into mortgage backed securities that the bank had rolled into complex toxic products and sold to unsuspecting investors between 2005 and 2007, just before the Financial Crisis.

The Justice Department already nailed other banks for it and extracted large fines; and it’s still investigating some banks, including UBS, Credit Suisse, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Barclays – which saw their shares get pummeled today.

Deutsche Bank has already paid over $9 billion in fines and settlements since 2008. Other scandals are still simmering on the front burner, unresolved, including the money laundering scandal in Russia for which Deutsche Bank has reserved €5.5 billion this summer to cover the fines.

In its statement early Friday in Frankfurt, Deutsche Bank said it “has commenced negotiations” with the Justice Department:

The bank confirms market speculation of an opening position by the DoJ of USD 14 billion and that the DoJ has invited the bank as the next step to submit a counter proposal.

Deutsche Bank has no intent to settle these potential civil claims anywhere near the number cited. The negotiations are only just beginning. The bank expects that they will lead to an outcome similar to those of peer banks which have settled at materially lower amounts.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Charting The Epic Collapse Of The World’s Most Systemically Dangerous Bank

July 10, 2016

Charting The Epic Collapse Of The World’s Most Systemically Dangerous Bank

It’s been almost 10 years in the making, but the fate of one of Europe’s most important financial institutions appears to be sealed.

After a hard-hitting sequence of scandals, poor decisions, and unfortunate events,Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes that Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank shares are now down -48% on the year to $12.60, which is a record-setting low.

Even more stunning is the long-term view of the German institution’s downward spiral.

With a modest $15.8 billion in market capitalization, shares of the 147-year-old company now trade for a paltry 8% of its peak price in May 2007.

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

THE BEGINNING OF THE END

If the deaths of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were quick and painless, the coming demise of Deutsche Bank has been long, drawn out, and painful.

In recent times, Deutsche Bank’s investment banking division has been among the largest in the world, comparable in size to Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup. However, unlike those other names, Deutsche Bank has been walking wounded since the Financial Crisis, and the German bank has never been able to fully recover.

It’s ironic, because in 2009, the company’s CEO Josef Ackermann boldly proclaimed that Deutsche Bank had plenty of capital, and that it was weathering the crisis better than its competitors.

It turned out, however, that the bank was actually hiding $12 billion in losses to avoid a government bailout. Meanwhile, much of the money the bank did make during this turbulent time in the markets stemmed from the manipulation of Libor rates. Those “wins” were short-lived, since the eventual fine to end the Libor probe would be a record-setting $2.5 billion.

The bank finally had to admit that it actually needed more capital.

In 2013, it raised €3 billion with a rights issue, claiming that no additional funds would be needed. Then in 2014 the bank head-scratchingly proceeded to raise €1.5 billion, and after that, another €8 billion.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Are We Living In “A Riskless World”, Deutsche Asks

July 3, 2016

Are We Living In “A Riskless World”, Deutsche Asks

Two weeks ago, when looking at the performance of bank stocks, Deutsche Bank’s Oleg Melentyev noticed that the ongoing collapse in US bank stocks relative to the change in the S&P from all time highs was starting to hint at patterns last seen just before the last three major market crashes.

Needless to say, European stocks (and especially Melentyev’s own employer, Deutsche Bank) have been in a world of pain of their own. Which in turn brings us to Melentyev’s latest note, one which looks at a world without risk, courtesy of central banks.

A Riskless World

Only a few days into the post-UK referendum world, the market is back on its feet, fearing nothing and laughing at skeptics. So what if a 30yr socio-economic alliance at the heart of post-WWII world has ended? Politicians will figure out a Swiss-like arrangement for the UK, and the ECB will throw the capital keys out of the window. Everything’s gonna be all right.

Such an optimistic narrative does not surprise us in and of itself. What surprises us is zero value being put on a probability of this scenario not playing out. We tend to like markets that present either a discount for uncertainty or a convincing case for improving outlook. It is hard to argue that either one is here today. Even if one believes in the possibility of a watered-down political compromise between the UK and EU, pricing in zero risk of achieving and implementing it leaves no room for error. A long implementation time is not a benefit as it only creates more uncertainty. Several major EU economies are facing elections in the next 18 months, and the markets are going to react every time the word “referendum” is mentioned.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System”: IMF

June 30, 2016

“Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System”: IMF

Over three years ago we wrote “At $72.8 Trillion, Presenting The Bank With The Biggest Derivative Exposure In The World” in which we introduced a bank few until then had imagined was the riskiest in the world.

As we explained then “the bank with the single largest derivative exposure is not located in the US at all, but in the heart of Europe, and its name, as some may have guessed by now, is Deutsche Bank. The amount in question? €55,605,039,000,000. Which, converted into USD at the current EURUSD exchange rate amounts to $72,842,601,090,000…. Or roughly $2 trillion more than JPMorgan’s.”

So here we are three years later, when not only did Deutsche Bank just flunk the Fed’s stress test for the second year in a row, but moments ago in a far more damning analysis, none other than the IMF disclosed that Deutsche Bank poses the greatest systemic risk to the global financial system, explicitly stating that the German bank “appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks.”

Yes, the same bank whose stock price hit a record low just two days ago.

Here is the key section in the report:

Domestically, the largest German banks and insurance companies are highly interconnected. The highest degree of interconnectedness can be found between Allianz, Munich Re, Hannover Re, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and Aareal bank, with Allianz being the largest contributor to systemic risks among the publicly-traded German financials. Both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are the source of outward spillovers to most other publicly-listed banks and insurers. Given the likelihood of distress spillovers between banks and life insurers, close monitoring and continued systemic risk analysis by authorities is warranted.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Stock Market Crash Of 2016: Stocks Have Already Crashed In 6 Of The World’s 8 Largest Economies

June 18, 2016

The Stock Market Crash Of 2016: Stocks Have Already Crashed In 6 Of The World’s 8 Largest Economies

Over the past 12 months, stock market investors around the planet have lost trillions of dollars. Since this time last June, stocks have crashed in 6 of the world’s 8 largest economies, and stocks in the other two are down as well. The charts that you are about to see are absolutely stunning, and they are clear evidence that a new global financial crisis has already begun. Of course it is true that we are still in the early chapters of this new crisis and that there is much, much more damage to be done, but let us not minimize the carnage that we have already witnessed.

In general, there have been three major waves of financial panic over the past 12 months. Late last August we saw the biggest financial shaking since the financial crisis of 2008, then in January and February there was an even bigger shaking, and now a third “wave” has begun in June. Not all areas around the globe have been affected equally by each wave, but without a doubt this new financial crisis is a global phenomenon.

The charts that I am about to show you come from Trading Economics. It is an absolutely indispensable website that is packed full of useful data, and I encourage everyone to check it out.

Let’s talk about China first. The Chinese economy is the second largest on the entire planet, and since this time last year Chinese stocks are down an astounding 40 percent…

As things have started to unravel in China, the Chinese have been selling off U.S. debt and U.S. stocks like crazy. The following comes from Bloomberg…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

According To Deutsche Bank, The “Worst Kind Of Recession” May Have Already Started

May 8, 2016

According To Deutsche Bank, The “Worst Kind Of Recession” May Have Already Started

One week ago, Deutsche Bank’s Dominic Konstam unveiled, whether he likes it or not, what the next all too likely step will be as central bankers scramble to preserve order in a world in which monetary policy has all but lost effectiveness: “It is becoming increasingly clear to us that the level of yields at which credit expansion in Europe and Japan will pick up in earnest is probably negative, and substantially so. Therefore, the ECB and BoJ should move more strongly toward penalizing savings via negative retail deposit rates or perhaps wealth taxes.”

Many were not happy, although in reality the only reason why the DB strategist proposed this disturbing idea is because this is precisely what the central banks will end up doing.

Today, he follows up with an explanation just why the central bankers will engage in such lunatic measures: quite simply, he thinks that economic contraction is now practically assured – and may have already begun – for a simple reason: contrary to popular belief, this particular “expansion” will die of old age after all, and won’t even need the Fed’s intervention to unleash the next recession (if not depression).

There is an old saying amongst market watchers that economic expansions do not die of old age. Rather, during the course of the business cycle dynamics emerge that threaten to become unacceptable from a policy perspective. In the context of economic expansion, that dynamic has been inflation. The conventional pattern has been that as expansions mature, demand for labor outstrips the available supply, creating upward pressure on wages. In the presence of pricing power, higher wages are passed along to end consumers through higher prices.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed “QE For The Entire World”… And May Have Bailed Out US Shale

April 22, 2016

The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed “QE For The Entire World”… And May Have Bailed Out US Shale

Almost exactly one year ago, we wrote “Mario Draghi, Collateral Scarcity, And Why The ECB Will Soon Buy Corporate Bonds.” 11 months later, the ECB confirmed this when for the first time ever, Mario Draghi said he would do purchase corporate bonds when he launched the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP), confirming that with government bond collateral evaporating and the liquidity situation getting precariously dangerous and forcing moments of historic volatility (as in the April/May 2015 Bund fiasco), he had run out of other options.

And while we have been covering this key development closely since its announcement more than a month ago, we were surprised by how little attention most of the sellside was paying to what is clearly a watershed moment in capital markets as a central banks now openly backstops corporate bond issuance (among other things pointing out a month ago Why The ECB Will Be Forced To Buy Junk Bonds Next). Ironically, the market was fully aware of what the ECB’s action meant as we showed in the “The ECB Effect: European Telecom Issues Largest Ever Junk Bond After More Than 100% Upsizing.”

Now, following the release of the full details of its corporate bond buying program, analysts are once again keenly focused on hits program who impact will be dramatic over the coming years.

First, as a reminder, here are the big picture details:

May buy in primary and secondary markets
Issue share limit of 70% per ISIN
Inclusion of bonds issued by insurance companies
Can buy bonds of companies incorporated in the euro area whose ultimate parent is not based in the euro area
Remaining maturity of 6 months and maximum of 30Y

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“We Aren’t Thinking About It At All”, Or How Kuroda Just Assured That Helicopter Money Is Coming To Japan

April 21, 2016

“We Aren’t Thinking About It At All”, Or How Kuroda Just Assured That Helicopter Money Is Coming To Japan

On Friday, courtesy of a Deutsche Bank report laughably titled Helicopter Money 101, we showed how to trade the coming helicopter money paradrop that will be provided by central banks in the very near future. When asking the question of who would be the first to try it, one of the first central banks that comes to mind (both Deutsche’s and ours) would be the Bank of Japan. To date, the BoJ has tried everything in order to increase inflation (or simply to generate any, for that matter), and boost their economy. Everything that is, except for helicopter money (giving money directly to the government or citizens and bypassing all current institutions acting as middle men).

Yesterday according to Bloomberg, BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that he isn’t thinking about using so-called helicopter money, and that the notion contradicts the law.

“In advanced nations nowadays, fiscal policy is determined by the government and the parliament while monetary policy is decided by the central bank, which is separate from government and parliament,” Kuroda told lawmakers in the Japanese Diet. “Deciding and implementing these things together would contradict the current legal framework. So unless the existing legal framework changes, helicopter money isn’t possible, and we at the Bank of Japan aren’t thinking about it at all.“

If you read the end of that carefully, you’ll want to revisit our article on how to trade the coming helicopter money (here). First, we’ll start with the fact that Deutsche Bank already has an answer on how to work around the “current legal framework”, and it’s called simply getting the legislature’s approval.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Mobs of Angry Investors Fight Market Rigging, Maul Deutsche Bank in Class-Action Lawsuit, other Banks Next

April 18, 2016

Mobs of Angry Investors Fight Market Rigging, Maul Deutsche Bank in Class-Action Lawsuit, other Banks Next

Since none of the criminal bankers responsible end up in prison…

Prior to last week, Deutsche Bank made headlines for a string of huge losses and massive exposure to risky derivatives. The last time the firm’s shares traded at prices this low, the world was in the midst of 2008’s financial apocalypse.

Deutsche Bank didn’t need more bad news, but a group of investors who brought suit against the massive German bank for cheating them by rigging the London “fix” price for gold and silver certainly must be smiling. Last week, the bank offered to settle their class action suit for an undisclosed amount.

Perhaps more importantly, DB promises to provide evidence to help the plaintiffs in their suit against the other banks who participated in manipulating the fix: Bank of Nova Scotia, Barclays, HSBC and SocGen. In a letter to U.S. District Court Judge Valerie Caproni, the plaintiff’s attorney said, “In addition to valuable monetary consideration, Deutsche Bank has also agreed to provide cooperation to the Plaintiffs, including the production of instant messages and other electronic communications, as part of the settlement.”

If the information DB provides is incriminating, as the plaintiff’s expect, it won’t be the only recent example of bankers getting caught talking smugly amongst themselves about swindling investors and clients. A year ago Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, and RBS pled guilty to criminally rigging the foreign exchange markets following the leak of some embarrassing communiques.

That case rested, in large part, on logs from an exclusive chat group participants dubbed “The Cartel.”

Here is a good example of the type of conversations contained in those logs. The banker representing Barclays “mentors” another member:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deutsche Bank Admits It Also Rigged Gold Prices, Agrees To Expose Other Manipulators

April 14, 2016

Deutsche Bank Admits It Also Rigged Gold Prices, Agrees To Expose Other Manipulators

Well, that didn’t take long.

Earlier today when we reported the stunning news that DB has decided to “turn” against the precious metals manipulation cartel by first settling a long-running silver price fixing lawsuit which in addition to “valuable monetary consideration” said it would expose the other banks’ rigging having also “agreed to provide cooperation to plaintiffs, including the production of instant messages, and other electronic communications, as part of the settlement” we said “since this is just one of many lawsuits filed over the past two years in Manhattan federal court in which investors accused banks of conspiring to rig rates or prices in financial and commodities markets, we expect that now that DB has “turned” that much more curious information about precious metals rigging will emerge, and will confirm what the “bugs” had said all along: that the precious metals market has been rigged all along.”

This was confirmed moments ago when Reuters reported that Deutsche Bank has also reached a settlement in US litigation alleging the bank conspired to fix gold prices. In other words, hours after admitting it was rigging the silver market, it did the same for gold.

Some more headlines from Reuters:

Reaches settlement in U.S. litigation alleging it conspired to fix gold prices.
Plaintiffs’ lawyers, in filing, say Deutsche Bank has signed a settlement term sheet
Plaintiffs’ lawyers say are negotiating formal settlement agreement that would be presented for judge’s approval later
Plaintiffs’ lawyers say settlement contemplates a monetary payment by Deutsche Bank
Gold settlement follows similar accord involving alleged silver price-fixing that was disclosed on Wednesday

Most importantly, as the actual settlement reveals, Deutsche has agreed that in addition to once again providing “valuable monetary consideration” which will be paid into a settlement fund, that like in the silver settlement it will provide “cooperation in pursuing claims against the remaining Defendants.“

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Deutsche Bank Confirms Silver Market Manipulation In Legal Settlement, Agrees To Expose Other Banks

April 14, 2016

Deutsche Bank Confirms Silver Market Manipulation In Legal Settlement, Agrees To Expose Other Banks

Back in July of 2014, we reported that in an attempt to obtain if not compensation, then at least confirmation of bank manipulation in the precious metals industry, a group of silver bullion banks including Deutsche Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC (later UBS was also added to the defendants) were accused of manipulating prices in the multi-billion dollar market.

The lawsuit, which was originally filed in a New York district court by veteran litigator J. Scott Nicholson, a resident of Washington DC, alleged that the banks, which oversee the century-old silver fix manipulated the physical and COMEX futures market since January 2007. The lawsuit subsequently received class-action status. It was the first case to target the silver fix.

Many expected that this case would never go anywhere and that the defendant banks would stonewall indefinitely: after all their legal budgets were far greater than the plaintiffs.

Which is why we were surprised to read overnight that not only has this lawsuit against precious metals manipulation not been swept away, but that the lead defendant, troulbed German bank Deutsche Bank agreed to settle the litigation over allegations it illegally conspired with Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC Holdings Plc to fix silver prices at the expense of investors, Reuters reported citing a court filing by law firm Lowey.

Terms were not disclosed, but the accord will include a monetary payment by the German bank.

It goes without saying, that there would have been neither a settlement nor a payment if the banks had done nothing wrong.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is This Class Warfare?

March 30, 2016

Is This Class Warfare?

Is there a conspiracy to keep wages from rising or is it just plain-old class warfare?

Check out these charts from a recent report by Deutsche Bank and see what you think:

Screen Shot 2016-03-29 at 6.15.59 PM

(Feeling Underpaid, Zero Hedge)

Well, what do you know? Everywhere the global bank cartel has its tentacles, wages are either flatlining or drifting lower.

“Coincidence”, you say?

Not bloody likely, I say. There’s either policy coordination between the various heads of state and their central banks or wealthy elites have secretly seized the levers of power and imposed their neoliberal dogma when no one was looking. Either way, it’s pretty easy to see the effects of “extraordinary monetary accommodation” on wages. It’s done absolutely nothing, which is why inflation has stayed in check. Because if wages aren’t rising, then inflation remains subdued which gives central bankers an excuse for launching another one of their trillion dollar QE programs that further enriches their crooked friends on Wall Street.

Yipee! More free money for Wall Street and the investor class!

See how it works?

And what about productivity? Why are wages no longer rising along with productivity?

unnamed

(What Killed the Middle Class, Zero Hedge)

It seems fairly obvious that if wages don’t rise with productivity, then personal consumption is going to flag and the economy’s going to tank. If that’s the case, then boosting wages should be a top priority among policymakers, right?

But it’s not. The top priority for most politicians is kowtowing to their private sector bosses who fund their campaigns and make sure they have a nice-comfy job when they finally call it quits after years of groveling service. Isn’t that the way it usually works for these so-called “public servants”; they craft legislation that serves their fatcat constituents and then count the days until their next big payoff?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Presenting The Complete Global Currency Swirlogram

March 25, 2016

Presenting The Complete Global Currency Swirlogram

In case you missed it, DM central banks are locked in a truly epic FX deathmatch.

Sluggish growth and trade and the attendant global deflationary supply glut have left the world stuck in a nauseating, perpetual hangover from the financial crisis. Subpar inflation and disappointing growth have become the norm in developed markets and that’s lured central bankers into a mad Keynesian dash for the bottom.

The Fed got a head start on the race in 2008 and so naturally, the FOMC is set to try and normalize first. Unfortunately, dollar strength plays havoc with an EM complex that’s already coping with collapsing demand from China, a cloudy outlook for commodity currencies, and a laundry list of idiosyncratic domestic issues (see Turkey and Brazil for instance).

And so, in this increasingly confusing environment wherein one round of DM easing begets another and wherein strange dynamics persist such as the perverse trading pattern of the BRL- which rallies every time the government looks set to collapse entirely only to be reined in by central bank sales of reverse FX swaps so excessive currency strength doesn’t keep the CA from adjusting – we present the following swirlogram from Deutsche Bank whose analysts have taken the average of several models to determine where the world’s currencies stand on the spectrum from overvalued to undervalued.

Average:

Deutsche Bank’s Dire Warning On Global Trade: “The Currency War Is Futile”

March 25, 2016

Deutsche Bank’s Dire Warning On Global Trade: “The Currency War Is Futile”

“It’s almost like the timing belt on the global growth engine is a bit off or the cylinders are not firing as they should.”

That’s from WTO chief economist Robert Koopman, and it’s a quote we’ve used on a number of occasions. Koopman is referring to the fact that for several years in a row, the rate of growth in global trade has lagged GDP growth. That’s a problem for two reasons: 1) GDP growth is hardly robust as it is, and 2) before the recent downturn, the last time trade growth underperformed the rate of economic expansion was two decades ago.

As WSJ noted last autumn, trade growth has averaged just 3% per year. That’s half of the 1983-2008 average.

“It’s fairly obvious that we reached peak trade in 2007,” Scott Miller, trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C., think tank told the Journal.

Since then, the evidence has continued to pile up that global trade has flatlined. Freight volume in the US fell for the first time in three years in November, while monumental declines for Class 8 truck sales vividly demonstrate the extent to which commerce is simply grinding to a halt across the US economy. As for global trade, well, the Baltic Dry speaks for itself.

“It is worse than in 2008. The oil price [is low] and freight rates are lower. The external conditions are much worse,” Maersk CEO Nils Andersen said, just last month. Maersk Line – the company’s golden goose and the world’s largest container operator – racked up $182 million in red ink last quarter alone.

In this environment the “answer” has been competitive devaluation – i.e. a currency war.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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