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Impending Iran Deal Could Crush Current Rally
Impending Iran Deal Could Crush Current Rally
The headline for the week was Saudi Arabia’s attack on rebels in Yemen, which threatens to ignite tensions between regional rivalries in the Middle East. The proximate cause was the advance by Houthi rebels on Aden where the Yemeni President is located. Saudi Arabia spent several weeks secretly reaching out to its regional allies to build support for an attack on the Houthis, signing up support from Turkey, Egypt, and an array of Gulf States. The advanced knowledge of the United States government appears to be a matter of dispute, with some top level Pentagon officials saying they were only given one hour’s notice before the attack. Nevertheless, the U.S. is providing logistical support – refueling and satellite imagery.
This attack comes at an awful time which may not be a coincidence. The negotiations between the P5+1 nations and Iran are coming down to the wire. The outlines of a deal are visible, but the sides are hoping to use the next few days to seal the deal. Saudi Arabia’s attack on Houthi rebels is not just about Yemeni stability. It is a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies on one side, and Iran on the other. The U.S. finds itself confronting Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen at the same time that it is attacking ISIS in Iraq alongside Iran. How this affects nuclear negotiations is anybody’s guess.
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How Russia Plans To Retaliate To The Saudi-Driven Collapse In Oil
How Russia Plans To Retaliate To The Saudi-Driven Collapse In Oil
A week ago we explained that yet another conspiracy theory, one involving virtually every geopolitical hotzone, from Saudi Arabia, to Russia, the United States, Qatar, Syria, ISIS, and Ukraine, has become fact when our speculation from last September, namely that the plunge in oil was an choreographed move between the US and the Saudis (even if Kerry realized – we hope – that it meant a recession for the US energy producing states and a collapse in the only vibrant US industry of the past decade: shale), one seeking to dislodge Russian control over the Syrian government and to facilitate the passage of a Qatar pipeline under Syrian territory.
This is what the NYT said: “Saudi Arabia has been trying to pressure President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to abandon his support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, using its dominance of the global oil markets at a time when the Russian government is reeling from the effects of plummeting oil prices.”
The NYT added:
Saudi Arabia and Russia have had numerous discussions over the past several months that have yet to produce a significant breakthrough, according to American and Saudi officials. It is unclear how explicitly Saudi officials have linked oil to the issue of Syria during the talks, but Saudi officials say — and they have told the United States — that they think they have some leverage over Mr. Putin because of their ability to reduce the supply of oil and possibly drive up prices.
That’s the quo. As for the quid, it is as we predicted:
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Ukraine ‘Peace’ Talks In Tatters: Defiant Putin “Won’t Tolerate Unipolar World”; Hollande Proposes “Strong Autonomy” For Rebel Region
Ukraine ‘Peace’ Talks In Tatters: Defiant Putin “Won’t Tolerate Unipolar World”; Hollande Proposes “Strong Autonomy” For Rebel Region
Just as the existing ‘truce’ in Ukraine has been made a total farce as 1000s of military and civilians have been killed, so any ‘hope’ that this weekend’s “peace efforts” will result in anything but more talk is rapidly diminishing… Germany’s Merkel exclaimed honestly that it’s “uncertain whether this will be successful,”seemingly resigned to the fact as she added, “but it’s at least worth making an attempt.” French PresidentHollande admitted that Ukraine’s eastern regions likely need “strong autonomy.” Ukraine’s Poroshenko blustered that he “trusts” Merkel, that the economy is collapsing (more money please), that the country does not need peacekeepers and a lack of arms is fueling conflict (so send us weapons) while pushing for a Russian withdrawal and quick cease-fire. Finally Vladimir Putin blasted that Russia is unwilling to tolerate a post-Cold War global system dominated by one absolute leader, to which US VP Joe Biden remarked simply “get out of Ukraine.” But apart from that, talks are going great…
Stocks rallied after hours on Friday on a spurious headline that peace talks were progressing…
That appears to be entirely false…
Merkel… not optimistic… (via Bloomberg)
“It’s uncertain whether this will be successful, but in my view and in the view of the French president, it’s at least worth making an attempt,” Merkel says in speech at the Munich Security Conference. “I feel that we at least owe it to those affected in Ukraine.”“Russia needs to show its contribution” in defusing Ukraine crisis, Merkel says.
“This conflict can’t be solved militarily,” Merkel says
Minsk accord must be fulfilled: Merkel
Hollande… does not see a united Ukraine anytime soon (via France24)
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US risking another proxy war with Russia?
US risking another proxy war with Russia?
Surge of violence in Ukraine prompting the US to review its involvement in the conflict.
Ten months of fighting, more than 5,000 people killed and a poorly respected ceasefire in tatters.
A surge in violence in Ukraine is prompting the US to review its involvement in the conflict.
Up until now, it has stopped short of providing arms, as the Kiev government battles pro-Russia separatists.
But the White House has been hinting at a change of policy. But is it prompting a bigger fight that Ukraine is unlikely to win?
And does the US risk expanding a proxy war with its old adversary?
Host: Adrian Finighan
Guests:
Mychailo Wynnychyj, Associate Professor at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, in Kiev.
Sergei Strokan, foreign affairs columnist for Kommersant newspaper in Moscow.
Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC.
…click on the above link to view the video…
Tomgram: David Vine, A Permanent Infrastructure for Permanent War | TomDispatch
Tomgram: David Vine, A Permanent Infrastructure for Permanent War | TomDispatch.
In a September address to the United Nations General Assembly, President Barack Obamaspoke forcefully about the “cycle of conflict” in the Middle East, about “violence within Muslim communities that has become the source of so much human misery.” The president was adamant: “It is time to acknowledge the destruction wrought by proxy wars and terror campaigns between Sunni and Shia across the Middle East.” Then with hardly a pause, he went on to promote his own proxy wars (including the backing of Syrian rebels and Iraqi forces against the Islamic State), as though Washington’s military escapades in the region hadn’t stoked sectarian tensions and been high-performance engines for “human misery.”
Not surprisingly, the president left a lot out of his regional wrap-up. On the subject of proxies, Iraqi troops and small numbers of Syrian rebels have hardly been alone in receiving American military support. Yet few in our world have paid much attention to everything Washington has done to keep the region awash in weaponry.
Since mid-year, for example, the State Department and the Pentagon have helped pave the way for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to buy hundreds of millions of dollars worth of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) launchers and associated equipment and to spend billions more on Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles; for Lebanon to purchase nearly $200 million in Huey helicopters and supporting gear; for Turkey to buy hundreds of millions of dollars of AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM (Air-to-Air) missiles; and for Israel to stock up on half a billion dollars worth of AIM-9X Sidewinder (air-to-air) missiles; not to mention other deals to aid the militaries of Egypt, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
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