financial times – Page 3

In his farewell interview for the Financial Times, Federal Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble warned of a new global financial crisis predicated upon the Quantity of Money theory that the central banks had pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system that is creating a risk of “new bubbles”. Indeed, many just do not comprehend what is going on and are blaming the new highs in share markets on concerns about the increased risks from the accumulation of more and more liquidity and the growth of public and private debt.

The IMF CEO Christine Lagarde has also gone on record warning of a new debt crisis. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has also joined the crowd who see the Quantitative Easing as increasing the risk of asset bubbles. Schäuble has made it clear that he sees the risk is greater in the Eurozone because of the excessive amount of bad loans held by banks.

This is the view that has driven Schäuble calling for the continuation of austerity policy in southern Europe. Schäuble is to be elected president of the new Bundestag at the end of October. The problem with austerity is that this has been directed at the people – not government. The QE policies have brought in government debt, so the added liquidity has FAILED to stimulate the economy and capital has been driven into assets by negative interest rates. Austerity will only further punish the private sector while the public sector continues to spend and then raises taxes maintaining deflation and the negative interest rates rob people of any income from their savings.

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Iran Threatens America: If New Sanctions Pass, US Military “Would Be At Risk”

October 8, 2017

Iran Threatens America: If New Sanctions Pass, US Military “Would Be At Risk”

In the coming days, president Trump is expected to announce that he will decertify the Iran Nuclear Deal, a step that potentially could cause the historic Obama-era accord to unravel. Under the 2015 deal, Iran agreed to limit its disputed nuclear program in return for the easing of economic sanctions. Realizing the dire threat that such a move presents for its economy – not to mention Iranian oil exports – Iran has escalated the rhetoric, and overnight it warned the United States that U.S. regional military bases “would be at risk” if further sanctions were passed or if the US designated its Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a terrorist group.

On Friday the Financial Times reported that Donald Trump is expected to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group, as part of a new hardline strategy against the Islamic republic.

Mr Trump is expected to announce new measures against Iran, including the prospect of additional targeted sanctions, the designation of the Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation and the adoption of a tougher stance on Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, according to a person briefed on the matter.

“It’s an integrated Iran strategy focused on neutralising and rolling back Iran’s malign activities regionally and globally,” the person said.

Iran was not happy: “The Americans should know that the Trump government’s stupid behavior with the nuclear deal will be used by the Islamic Republic as an opportunity to move ahead with its missile, regional and conventional defense program,” Guards’ commander Mohammad Ali Jafari said, quoted by Reuters. He then explicitly threatened US presence in the region, warning that “if America’s new law for sanctions is passed, this country will have to move their regional bases outside the 2,000 km range of Iran’s missiles.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Venezuela Headed For “Messiest Debt-Restructuring In History” Thanks To US Sanctions

September 1, 2017

Venezuela Headed For “Messiest Debt-Restructuring In History” Thanks To US Sanctions

After being effectively shut out from global financial markets – a situation that was made more precarious by US sanctions prohibiting purchases of Venezuelan debt (unless you’re buying them off Goldman Sachs, should the bank’s asset-management arm desire to liquidate its $3 billion “hunger bond” position) – Venezuela is drawing ever-nearer to what the Financial Times describes as potentially the “messiest debt restructuring in history.”

So far, Venezuela has managed to forestall a default by stripping assets from its state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela, commonly referred to as PVDSA, and shaking down local institutions of spare dollars – not to mention the explicit financial support of China and Russia. Recently, Rosneft, the largest Russian oil company, helped support its troubled ally, which enjoys the largest crude reserves in the world, by offering billions of dollars in advance payments for future crude supplies. Thanks to a deal brokered by deceased former President Hugo Chavez, Venezuela has for years been Rosneft’s largest foreign supplier of crude. Last year, the oil giant accepted a 49.9% stake in PVDSA’s US-based subsidiary, Citgo, as collateral for a $1.5 billion loan.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro

However, thanks to the US sanctions, which prohibit purchases of newly issued debt and existing bonds that have so far not been sold outside of Caracas, the country will once again need to innovate or risk sliding into bankruptcy. Making matters all the more urgent, the country recently suffered a loss in US courts after a judge ruled that Canadian miner Crystallex can seize Venezuelan money held in a custody account at Bank of New York Mellon to cover a $1.4 billion judgment awarded by a World Bank tribunal.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Should Bank Regulation be Relaxed?

August 27, 2017

SHOULD BANK REGULATION BE RELAXED?

Leading Federal Reserve policymaker Stanley Fischer has hit out at plans to unwind banking regulation, calling it a “terrible mistake.”

President Donald Trump and republican politicians have advocated the repeal of Dodd Frank, a major piece of post-crisis legislation, and the loosening of some capital and liquidity requirements in a bid to ease banks’ ability to lend.

In an interview with the Financial Times on August 16 2017, Fischer said that loosening capital and liquidity requirements is dangerous and could lead to a new economic crisis. “I find that really, extremely dangerous and extremely short-sighted.”

Whilst Fischer is not a friend of a free market, in this case we are in agreement with Fischer’s comment.

True free financial environment versus financial environment controlled by central bank

The proponents for less control in financial markets hold that fewer restrictions imply a better use of scarce resources, which leads to the generation of more real wealth.

It is true that a free financial environment is an agent of wealth promotion through the efficient use of scarce real resources, whilst a controlled financial sector stifles the process of real wealth formation. The proponents of deregulated financial markets have overlooked the fact that the present financial system has nothing to do with a free market. What we have at present is a financial system within the framework of the central bank, which promotes monetary inflation and the destruction of the process of real wealth generation through fractional reserve banking. In the present system the more unrestricted the banks are the more money out of “thin air” generated and hence greater damage inflicted upon the wealth generation process. (Note that in the genuine free banking i.e. the absence of the central bank, the potential for the creation of money out of “thin air” is minimal).

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Financial Times: “America Is Now A Dangerous Nation”

August 18, 2017

Financial Times: “America Is Now A Dangerous Nation”

The Financial Times reminds readers of something that has occurred numerous times throughout history when leaders lose the support of their people… “The president may exploit an overseas conflict to distract from problems at home…”

Authored by Gideon Rachman via FT.com,

The claim that America is a “threat to world peace” has been a staple of Russian and Iranian propaganda for many years. For believers in the western alliance, it is painful to acknowledge that there is now some truth to this idea. Under Donald Trump, America looks like a dangerous nation. Over the past week, Mr Trump has indulged in nuclear brinkmanship in North Korea, issued vague threats of military action in Venezuela and flirted with white supremacists at home. He is offering the very opposite of the steady, predictable and calm leadership that American allies seek from Washington.

Mr Trump’s swiftly notorious threats that North Korea risks “fire and fury” from a “locked and loaded” America were particularly irresponsible. Even if the threat is a bluff, it puts American credibility on the line and risks triggering escalation from the Kim Jong Un regime, which is threatening to fire missiles near the US territory of Guam. Even more alarming, the Trump administration is openly flirting with the idea of a pre-emptive strike on North Korea — arguing that a nuclear-armed Mr Kim cannot be deterred. But if America could rely on deterrence to contain the nuclear threat from Stalin’s Russia and Mao’s China — it can certainly do the same with Mr Kim’s North Korea. All previous presidents have rejected the idea of pre-emptive attacks on nuclear-armed states — for obvious reasons.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Italy To Nationalize Monte Paschi After Private Sector Rescue Fails

December 21, 2016

Italy To Nationalize Monte Paschi After Private Sector Rescue Fails

Update: the FT writes that the Italian govt set to take a stake between 50% and 70% in Monte dei Paschi, up from the current 4% stake, as part of the government’s third bailout in as many years. As the FT adds, “the government rescue, which had long been resisted in Rome, is designed to draw a line under the slow-burn crisis in Italian banking that has alarmed investors and become the main source of concern for European financial regulators.”

It remains to be seen if Germany, long a critic of state bailouts, will be as agreeable.

Meanwhile, Pier Carlo Padoan, the Italin finmin, insisted that apart from a few “critical” situations, Italy’s banking system was “solid and healthy”. He vowed to “minimise, if not erase” any impact of the public intervention on the savings of ordinary citizens.

* * *

The third bailout, and re-nationalization, of Italy’s third largest banks is imminent following a Reuters report that the ongoing, JPM-led attempt to execute a complex private sector bailout of Monte Paschi has failed.

According to Reuters, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, long considered as the most likely anchor investor with a €1 billion allocation in any rescue plan cash call, decided it is unwilling to invest in the Italian bank, meanwhile Monte Paschi has been unable to find a replacement investor willing to put money in its privately funded rescue plan, less than 24 hours before the offer ends.

As a result, the bank entire share sale, which closes at 2 p.m. (1300 GMT) on Thursday, has drawn very little interest from the wider investment community.

As laid out previously, the bank needs to raise €5 billion by the end of this month to avert being wound down. The Italian government, which earlier today got a greenlight to issue €20 billion in public debt to use for bank bailout purposes, is expected to step in this week and nationalize the bank.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Coming Collapse of the World’s Biggest Economy

October 8, 2016

The Coming Collapse of the World’s Biggest Economy

The stage is set for the collapse of the world’s largest economy—the European Union. The trigger: Italy’s exit from the euro currency.

The Financial Times recently put it this way:

An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period. It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash.

If the FT is even partially right, it means we’re looking at a possible stock market crash of historic proportions. It could devastate anyone with a brokerage account. But it could also present enormous opportunities to profit.

Here’s how it could happen…

What started out as a joke has become Italy’s most popular political party.

In 2007, Beppe Grillo, an Italian actor and comedian, launched Vaffanculo Day (“vaffanculo” is Italian for “f*** off”).

Grillo and his followers used V-Day to bluntly express their displeasure over Italian establishment politicians using imagery from the movie V for Vendetta.

V-Day helped organize Italians frustrated by their political system. It gave birth to the Five Star Movement, Italy’s new populist political party.

Grillo’s Five Star Movement—or M5S, as it’s known by its Italian acronym—is anti-globalist, anti-euro, and anti-establishment. It doesn’t neatly fall into the left/right political paradigm.

According to the latest polls, M5S is now the most popular party in Italy. It won mayoral elections in Rome and Turin earlier this year.

M5S is riding a wave of populist anger at entrenched political elites over economic stagnation. Italy has had virtually no productive growth since it joined the eurozone in 1999.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

When Government Controls All Wealth

July 3, 2016

When Government Controls All Wealth

Sliding Into Absurdity

BALTIMORE – Stock markets continued their rebound on Wednesday. The Dow rose 284 points… or just over 1.5%. London’s FTSE 100 Index was up 3.6%. And Europe’s equivalent of the Dow, the Euro Stoxx 50, was up 2.7%.

brexit-2 No wonder the Dragon and his partners in crime flooded the EU banking system with “money” this past week…

Investors have realized Brexit isn’t the end of the world. First, because they think it won’t really happen. After all, elites can fix elections, buy politicians, and control public policy… surely, they can fix this!

A letter in the Financial Times reminds us that Swedish voters cast their ballots against nuclear power in 1980. The government just ignored them, doubling nuclear power generation over the next 36 years.

Second, because investors see the panic over Brexit leading to more spirited intervention by central banks! The EZ money floodgates – already wide open – are to be opened wider.

The U.S. has its QE program on hold, but Europe’s scheme is gushing like Niagara. Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank buys $90 billion a month in bonds. And he’s not only buying government bonds; he’s buying corporates, too.

Less Than Zero

In Japan, always a trendsetter, the Bank of Japan has bought so many bonds it has pushed Japanese government bond yields below zero – out to more than 45 years on the yield curve!

In other words, you can now lend to the bankrupt Japanese government until 2051 with no hope of making a single yen, nominally, on your investment. Now, with bonds stacking up in their vaults, the Japanese feds are diversifying. They’re buying exchange-traded funds (ETFs), too.

JGB weekly over the past 5 years….still a widow-maker! – click to enlarge.

Via its ETF purchases, the BoJ buys about $30 billion of Japanese stocks a year. This has made it a top 10 shareholder in about 90% of the companies listed on the country’s Nikkei 225 Index.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Another reason to get rid of the euro

May 18, 2016

Another reason to get rid of the euro

From today’s Open Europe news summary:

EUROPEAN COMMISSION CONSIDERING NEW TOOLS TO PREVENT CASH OUTFLOWS FROM FAILING BANKS

According to a document seen by the Financial Times, the European Commission is considering proposing a new ‘moratorium tool’ that would give national regulators the power to freeze payments to bondholders and potentially halt depositor withdrawals in order to prevent huge cash outflows from failing banks before national authorities can intervene.

Source: The Financial Times

This is the typical answer from the elite running the EU and the ECB. When their policies lead to failure, the people’s assets will be seized. In typical Orwellian New Speak fashion, such action will be hailed as the necessary and proper solution to the problem.

“Markets Have No Purpose Any More” Mark Spitznagel Warns “Biggest Collapse In History” Is Inevitable

May 16, 2016

“Markets Have No Purpose Any More” Mark Spitznagel Warns “Biggest Collapse In History” Is Inevitable

After making over $1 billion in one day last August, and warning that “the markets are overvalued to the tune of 50%,” Mark Spitznagel knows a thing or two about managing tail risk.

The outspoken practitioner of Austrian economic philosophy tells The FT, “Markets don’t have a purpose any more – they just reflect whatever central planners want them to,” confirming his fund-management partner, Nassim Taleb’s perspective that “being protected from fragility in the financial system is a necessity rather than an option.”

“This is the greatest monetary experiment in history. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable.”

While some money managers are critical of a strategy that “sells fear,” The FT reports there are others who share Mr Spitznagel’s views that another reckoning is imminent.

Among those who share his worldview is former US presidential candidate, Senator Rand Paul, and his father Ron Paul.

The elder Paul wrote the introduction to Mr Spitznagel’s 2013 book, The Dao of Capital. “As one of the leading voices in the country on economic policy, Mark has been a key friend and ally, and I’m thankful for his always-ready advice,” Senator Paul told the FT. But most investors will be praying he is wrong.

Universa started in January 2007 after its success during the financial crisis, when it reportedly gained about 100 per cent. The firm now protects about $6bn of investor money, backed by about $200m-$300m of capital (the firm declined to say exactly how much because of regulatory issues). Fees are paid on the nominal amount insured against calamity, rather than the capital invested.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

$3 Trillion Black Hole Could Destroy Economy: “True Extent of Pension Problem Has Been Obscured”

April 12, 2016

$3 Trillion Black Hole Could Destroy Economy: “True Extent of Pension Problem Has Been Obscured”

Yet another reason why taxes are going up, cities and states are going broke, and the world is approaching financial implosion…

As if the world needed another dangerous and volatile factor in the mix of looming economic downturn.

Unfunded liabilities for pensions have been a problem for a while now, but as investors continue to face fleeting returns, many states and cities are facing the music… and when it stops, there won’t be enough money to go around.

Someone will lose their savings, their standard of living, their retirement and maybe their future. Others will be taxed to death to clean up the mess of the many places were the system is cracked, fissured and falling apart.

According to FT:

The US public pension system has developed a $3.4tn funding hole that will pile pressure on cities and states to cut spending or raise taxes to avoid Detroit-style bankruptcies.

[…] the collective funding shortfall of US public pension funds is three times larger than official figures showed, and is getting bigger.

Devin Nunes, a US Republican congressman, said: “It has been clear for years that many cities and states are critically underfunding their pension programmes and hiding the fiscal holes with accounting tricks.”

Mr Nunes… added: “When these pension funds go insolvent, they will create problems so disastrous that the fund officials assume the federal government will have to bail them out.”

Large pension shortfalls have already played a role in driving several US cities, including Detroit in Michigan and San Bernardino in California, to file for bankruptcy. The fear is other cities will soon become insolvent due to the size of their pension deficits.

The inevitable result is, of course, tax increases and spending cuts – potentially on important and vital services.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

German and Dutch objections to ECB QE are ignored

April 10, 2016

German and Dutch objections to ECB QE are ignored

From today’s Open Europe news summary:

ECB Minutes show deep divisions over stimulus measures
Minutes of the March meeting of the ECB governing council, released on yesterday reveal deep divisions amongst its members over the latest round of ECB stimulus. The Dutch and German members were fiercely against, The Financial Times reports, with the minutes noting that some feared the measures could result in “market distortions,” and that “the costs and risks of engaging further in public sector asset purchases, particularly in the medium to long term, would outweigh their potential benefits.”

Source: The Financial Times Politico

As usual, Germany’s (now joined by the Dutch) objections to the ECB’s quantitative easing program is ignored. It is a mystery why Germany continues to use the euro, since it is no one’s interest, not even the rest of the Eurozone countries, that it do so. The euro is a mechanism for the rest of Europe to steal German capital in order to prop up unsustainable welfare programs. This process will not cease until Germany’s economy is shattered. How can this be in the best interest of anyone, even the irresponsible countries of Europe? I believe the answer is that the rest of the Eurozone countries are led by opportunistic politicians who will line their pockets so that they themselves will not be affected by the coming collapse.

German and Dutch objections to ECB QE are ignored

April 8, 2016

German and Dutch objections to ECB QE are ignored

From today’s Open Europe news summary:

ECB Minutes show deep divisions over stimulus measures
Minutes of the March meeting of the ECB governing council, released on yesterday reveal deep divisions amongst its members over the latest round of ECB stimulus. The Dutch and German members were fiercely against, The Financial Times reports, with the minutes noting that some feared the measures could result in “market distortions,” and that “the costs and risks of engaging further in public sector asset purchases, particularly in the medium to long term, would outweigh their potential benefits.”

Source: The Financial Times Politico

As usual, Germany’s (now joined by the Dutch) objections to the ECB’s quantitative easing program is ignored. It is a mystery why Germany continues to use the euro, since it is no one’s interest, not even the rest of the Eurozone countries, that it do so. The euro is a mechanism for the rest of Europe to steal German capital in order to prop up unsustainable welfare programs. This process will not cease until Germany’s economy is shattered. How can this be in the best interest of anyone, even the irresponsible countries of Europe? I believe the answer is that the rest of the Eurozone countries are led by opportunistic politicians who will line their pockets so that they themselves will not be affected by the coming collapse.

Mr. MORE!

March 10, 2016

Mr. MORE!

The Man with the Inflation Plan

Proving beyond a shadow of doubt that Keynesian absurdity knows no bounds, Larry Summers has graced the FT – one of the West’s premier establishment propaganda mouthpieces advocating central economic planning as practiced by modern-day regulatory democracies – with yet another cringe-worthy editorial.

a danger to society Larry Summers – it is probably no exaggeration to call the man a danger to civilization Photo credit: Hyungwon Kang / Reuters / Corbis

The editorial is entitled “A world stumped by stubbornly low inflation” with a subheader reading “There is no evidence that policymakers are acting strongly to restore their credibility”.

The title and subheader alone deserve comment. First of all, absolutely no-one outside the inhabitants of the incestuous ivory tower of Keynesian and monetarist mainstream economists and the central planning bureaucrats infesting central banks is in any way “stumped” by “low inflation”.

We suspect that there are billions of consumers in the world who would prefer prices to stop rising altogether. In fact, we believe they not only want them to stop rising, they actually want them to decline. But what do they know? Mr. Summers and his central planning comrades have decreed that it is “bad” for them if they are able to buy more rather than less with their income!

As to the perceived lack of policymaker “credibility”: They don’t deserve any. The world’s economic malaise is to 100% their fault. If only it were true that they are “not acting”! The truth is unfortunately that they continue to heap folly upon folly.

Need we remind Mr. Summers of the Bank of Japan’s decision to implement the perversion of negative deposit rates, or the decision of the Riksbank to lower its negative rates to minus 50 basis points in the middle of a raging housing and consumer credit bubble, even though Sweden’s GDP is forecast to grow by 3%?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Everything Changes At Zero

February 25, 2016

EVERYTHING CHANGES AT ZERO

“Then said Jesus, “Father, forgive them; for they know not what they do.””
– Luke 23:34.

For the benefit of non-subscribers, there are two versions of the Financial Times newspaper. One of them is the hard copy edition, still printed on pink paper, an exact digital replica of which is available on the paper’s website to subscribers. The second is the website itself, at www.ft.com. The difference between the two is subtle, but crucial. In the formal, hard copy edition, ‘reader response’ is strictly edited and controlled. Occasionally a despatch critical of one of the paper’s columnists (normally and deservedly Martin Wolf) will make its way through enemy lines, but as the ‘edition of record’, hostility to and criticism of the newspaper’s editorial staff is, as you might expect, strictly rationed.

On the website, however, the gloves come off.

Last week the FT published an article, ‘Central banks: negative thinking’, co-authored by Robin Wigglesworth, Leo Lewis and Dan McCrum, that was atypically sceptical of the received wisdom on QE (i.e., that it works). The article began, as is probably compulsory these days, in Japan:

“Forums have seen a flood of commentary from Japan’s retirees decrying negative rates and the “torture” that the BoJ’s policy is already inflicting..

“The Japanese can be conservative at the best of times, and few think these are the best of times.”

But as the authors rightly point out, Japan is not the only country affected by negative interest rates, a policy that John Stepek, the editor of MoneyWeek, has nicely called

“the weaponisation of compound interest”.

As Messrs Wigglesworth, Lewis and McCrum rightly observe,

“With quantitative easing seemingly losing its power to dazzle markets, and many governments either unable or unwilling to countenance raising spending, central banks have felt compelled to try new tools.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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