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Behold Unintended Consequences: Japan Cancels 10Y Auction For First Time Ever Due To Sub-Zero Rates
Behold Unintended Consequences: Japan Cancels 10Y Auction For First Time Ever Due To Sub-Zero Rates
- PLANNED MARCH SALE OF 10-YEAR JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS THROUGH BANKS TO BE CANCELED AMID EXPECTED BELOW-ZERO YIELDS – NIKKEI
- JAPAN’S MINISTRY OF FINANCE IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE WEDNESDAY THE FIRST-EVER DECISION TO CALL OFF SALES OF 10-YEAR JGBS- NIKKEI
Here is the full Nikkei report on this absolute stunner of a development:
The planned March sale of 10-year Japanese government bonds through banks to retail investors, municipalities and others will be canceled amid expected below-zero yields following the Bank of Japan’s recent move to adopt negative interest rates.The Ministry of Finance is expected to announce Wednesday the first-ever decision to call off sales of 10-year JGBs.
The JGBs in question are sold through Japan Post Bank and regional banks in 50,000 yen ($415) units. The holder can cash out this new type of bond ahead of maturity. With the ministry already having suspended sales of two- and five-year instruments, all sales will end. But variable-rate 10-year JGBs for retail investors will still be offered.
Winning bids at the ministry’s auction of 10-year JGBs on Tuesday translated to a record-low average yield of 0.078%. As of Monday, nearly 70% of JGBs on the market already had negative yields, according to the Japan Securities Dealers Association.
Corporations and municipalities have started delaying their own issuances. Daiwa Securities Group has dropped plans to set conditions later this week for the issuance of seven- and 10-year straight bonds this month. The brokerage decided to take a fresh look at JGB yields and investor demand and said it has not decided when to proceed.
The Nagoya Expressway Public Corp., which had planned to float bonds later this week, has postponed the setting of conditions to next week.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Negative Interest Rates Already In Fed’s Official Scenario
Negative Interest Rates Already In Fed’s Official Scenario
Over the past year, and certainly in the aftermath of the BOJ’s both perplexing and stunning announcement (as it revealed the central banks’ level of sheer desperation), we have warned (most recently “Negative Rates In The U.S. Are Next: Here’s Why In One Chart”) that next in line for negative rates is the Fed itself, whether Janet Yellen wants it or not. Today, courtesy of Wolf Richter, we find that this is precisely what is already in the small print of the Fed’s future stress test scenarios, and specifically the “severely adverse scenario” where we read that:
The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession, accompanied by a period of heightened corporate financial stress and negative yields for short-term U.S. Treasury securities.
As a result of the severe decline in real activity and subdued inflation, short-term Treasury rates fall to negative ½ percent by mid-2016 and remain at that level through the end of the scenario.
And so the strawman has been laid. The only missing is the admission of the several global recession, although with global GDP plunging over 5% in USD terms, we wonder just what else those who make the official determination are waiting for.
Finally, we disagree with the Fed that QE4 is not on the table: it most certainly will be once stock markets plunge by 50% as the “severely adverse scenario” envisions, and once NIRP fails to boost economic activity, as it has failed previously everywhere else it has been tried, the Fed will promtply proceed with what has worked before, if only to make the true situation that much worse.
Until then, we sit back and wait.
Here is Wolf Richter with Negative Interest Rates Already in Fed’s Official Scenario
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Puerto Rico “Generously” Offers To Repay 54 Cents On The Dollar To Creditors Owed $70 Billion
Puerto Rico “Generously” Offers To Repay 54 Cents On The Dollar To Creditors Owed $70 Billion
Height Securities’ Daniel Hanson is “deeply skeptical” about the viability of Puerto Rico’s proposal for restructuring the island’s $70 billion in debt.
Hanson, in a note out late last week, said Governor Alejandro Padilla was “significantly unlikely” to present a “credible” plan and that the commonwealth’s offer to creditors may be “laughably low.”
As a reminder, Puerto Rico defaulted on some of its non-GO debt last month, presaging more missed payments this year as creditors come calling in May and July.
So far, the island has been able to avoid a messy default on its GO debt by utilizing a revenue “clawback” mechanism that effectively allows the commonwealth to divert money earmarked for non-GO debt, a move decried by the monolines.
In December, the market thought there might be a light at the end of the tunnel when creditors and the island’s power utility managed to get the bond insurers to go along with a $8 billion restructuring for PREPA, but that fell apart a week ago when lawmakers failed to vote on a new tax. Ultimately, the deadline to pass the bill was extended to February 16, but the fraugh negotiations underscore how precarious the situation has become.
On Monday, we got our first look at Puerto Rico’s opening salvo in what’s likely to be protracted battle to tackle the entire debt burden.
“Puerto Rico on Monday announced a major exchange offer to creditors that could reduce its debt by about $23 billion, the opening salvo in efforts to resolve the island’s crippling $70 billion debt crisis,” Reuters reports, adding that “the new plan would reduce a $49.2 billion chunk of Puerto Rico’s debt by about 46 percent, to $26.5 billion, by offering creditors payout reductions under a new, so-called “base bond” with better legal protections.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“The Fed Suspended The Laws Of The Market In Order To Save It” – What Happens Next
“The Fed Suspended The Laws Of The Market In Order To Save It” – What Happens Next
That the Fed has been boxed in by unleashing destructive monetary policies to “fix” decades of prior policy mistakes, is something we have been warning about since our first day. And, with every passing day that the Fed and its central bank peers pile up error upon error to offset prior mistakes, the day approaches when this latest bubble, which some have dubbed it the “central banks all-in” bubble, will burst as well: Friday’s shocking announcement of NIRP by the BOJ just brought us one step closer to the monetary doomsday.
However, the one saving grace for the central banks was that as long as none of the market participants who benefited from these flawed policies dared to open their mouths and point out that the emperor is naked, nobody really cared: after all, why spoil the party, especially since virtually nobody outside of finance knows, let alone cares, about monetary policy or why the Fed is the most important institution in the world.
All of that has changed in recent weeks, when just one week ago in the aftermath of the Fed’s dovish quasi-relent, the billionaires in Davos were quite clear that in light of the upcoming bursting of the latest “policy error” bubble by the central banks, “The Only Winning Move Is Not To Play The Game.” As the WSJ summarized the Davos participants’ mood so well, “their mood here was irritated, bordering on affronted, with what they say has been central-bank intervention that has gone on too long.”
There is just one problem: central bank intervention simply can not go away. Exhibit A: NIRP in Japan.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Who Warned “Be Careful What You Wish For… If Interest Rates Go Negative”
Who Warned “Be Careful What You Wish For… If Interest Rates Go Negative”
… which quickly puts into in context all the recent warnings about physical cash being eliminated (because as a reminder negative rates and cash simply can not coexist as the latter provides a ready immunity from the former), such as the following:
- Norway’s Biggest Bank Demands Cash Ban
- Bank Of England Economist Calls For Cash Ban, Urges Negative Rates
- Citigroup’s Gold “Expert” Demands A Cash Ban
- Leading German Keynesian Economist Calls For Cash Ban
- The War On Cash Is Advancing On All Fronts
Perhaps the only open question is which comes first i) Japan hinting at a cash ban, or ii) the Fed going NIRP as well.
So in light of all this monetary lunacy, we have dug up the following blast from the not so distant past, which contains several rather dire warnings about the dystopian future of a NIRP world:
- if rates go negative, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Bureau of Engraving and Printing will likely be called upon to print a lot more currency as individuals and small businesses substitute cash for at least some of their bank balances.
- I might even go to my bank and withdraw funds in the form of a certified check made payable to myself, and then put that check in a drawer.
- If bank liabilities shifted from deposits to certified checks to a significant degree, banks might be less willing to extend loans, because certified checks are likely to be less stable than deposits as a source of funding.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“Time To Panic”? Nigeria Begs World Bank For Massive Loan As Dollar Reserves Dry Up
“Time To Panic”? Nigeria Begs World Bank For Massive Loan As Dollar Reserves Dry Up
Having urged “don’t panic” just 4 short months ago, it appears Nigeria just did just that as the global dollar short squeeze forces the eight-month-old government of President Muhammadu Buhari to beg The World Bank and African Development Bank for $3.5bn in emergency loans to help fund a $15bn deficit in a budget heavy on public spending amid collapsing oil revenues. Just as we warned in December, the dollar shortage has arrived, perhaps now is time to panic after all.
In September, Nigerian central bank Governor Godwin Emefiele ruled out a naira devaluation on Thursday and told people not to panic about a government order which risks draining billions of dollars from the financial system.
In an interview with Reuters, Emefiele said he was ready to inject liquidity if needed into the interbank market, which dried up this week following the directive to government departments to move their funds from commercial banks into a “Treasury Single Account” (TSA) at the central bank.The policy is part of new President Muhammadu Buhari’s drive to fight corruption, but analysts say it could suck up as much as 10 percent of banking sector deposits in Africa’s biggest economy – playing havoc with banks’ liquidity ratios.
With global oil prices tumbling, banks and companies are already struggling with the consequences of a dive in Nigeria’s energy revenues that has hit the naira currency and triggered flows of capital out of the country.
Then JP Morgan kicked Nigeria out of its influential Emerging Markets Bond Index last week due to restrictions that the central bank imposed on the currency market to support the naira and preserve its foreign exchange reserves.
Since taking office in May, Buhari has vowed to rein in Nigeria’s dependency on oil exports which account for 90 percent of foreign currency earnings.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“Pandora’s Box Is Open”: Why Japan May Have Started A ‘Silent Bank Run’
“Pandora’s Box Is Open”: Why Japan May Have Started A ‘Silent Bank Run’
As Goldman’s Naohiko Baba previously explained, NIRP in Japan will not actually boost the economy: “we do have concerns about the policy transmission channel. Policy Board Member Koji Ishida, who voted against the new measures, said that “a further decline in JGB yields would not have significantly positive effects on economy activity.” We concur with this sentiment, particularly for capex. The key determinants of capex in Japan are the expected growth rate and uncertainty about the future as seen by corporate management according to our analysis, while the impact of real long-term rates has weakened markedly in recent years.”
What the BOJ’s NIRP will do, is result in a one-time spike in risk assets, something global stock and bond markets have already experienced, and a brief decline in the Yen, one which traders can’t wait to fade as Citi FX’s Brent Donnelly explained yesterday.
NIRP will also have at most two other “positive” consequences, which according to Deutsche Bank include 1) reinforcing financial institutions’ decisions to grant new loans and invest in securities (if only in theory bnecause as explained further below in practice this may very well backfire); and 2) widening interest rate differentials to weaken JPY exchange rates, which in turn support companies’ JPY-based sales and profit, for whom a half of consolidated sales are from overseas.
That covers the positive. The NIRP negatives are far more troubling. The first one we already noted yesterday, when Goldman speculated that launching NIRP could mean that further QE is all tapped out:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Francois Hollande Admits Socialist Policies Failed, Declares “Economic State Of Emergency”
Francois Hollande Admits Socialist Policies Failed, Declares “Economic State Of Emergency”
Since 2012, when Mr Hollande came to power, more than 600,000 people have joined the ranks of the unemployed at a time when joblessness has decreased in most of the other large European economies.
Well for Francois Hollande, the days of hiding behing manipulated data are over and the open kimono reveals a nation whose stability is wracked by record unemployment. In a desperate-for-re-election speech today, The FT reports that socialist leader Hollande admitted his policies needed reform and that France is an economic “state of emergency.”
In a turn towards pro-business policies (sacre bleu!), Hollande prescribed new measures which involve the creation of 500,000 vocational training schemes, additional subsidies for small companies and a programme to boost apprenticeships.
With 15 months before the presidential election, the sense of urgency is also political for the socialist leader, who has tied his decision to run for a second mandate to his ability to curb unemployment significantly this year.“We have to act so that growth becomes more robust and job creation more abundant,” Mr Hollande said in an address to unions and business leaders. “Our country has been facing structural unemployment for too long and it needs to reform.”
Under the plan, which takes effect immediately, companies with fewer than 250 workers will receive a €2,000 payout for hiring youths and unemployed people for contracts lasting more than six months at salaries below 1.3 times the minimum wage. After two years, the subsidy will become permanent in the form of a decrease in social security charges. The tax breaks previously announced will become permanent beyond 2017, he said.
The new measures, which will cost about €2bn, are seen as aimed at this political goal.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Fed’s Stunning Admission Of What Happens Next
The Fed’s Stunning Admission Of What Happens Next
All of this happened before JPM cut its Q4 GDP estimate from 1.0% to 0.1% in the quarter in which Yellen hiked.
To be sure, the dramatic reaction and outcome following the Fed’s “error” rate hike was predicted on this website on many occasions, most recently two weeks prior to the rate hike in “This Is What Happened The Last Time The Fed Hiked While The U.S. Was In Recession” when we demonstrated what would happen once the Fed unleashed the “Ghost of 1937.”
As we pointed out in early December, conveniently we have a great historical primer of what happened the last time the Fed hiked at a time when it misread the US economy, which was also at or below stall speed, and the Fed incorrectly assumed it was growing.
We are talking of course, about the infamous RRR-hike of 1936-1937, which took place smack in the middle of the Great Recession.
Here is what happened then, as we described previously in June.
[No episode is more comparable to what is about to happen] than what happened in the US in 1937, smack in the middle of the Great Depression.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Creditors Accuse Portugal Of “Unfair, Populist Short-Cut” In €2 Billion Bank Bail-In
Creditors Accuse Portugal Of “Unfair, Populist Short-Cut” In €2 Billion Bank Bail-In
Two weeks ago, The Bank of Portugal shocked markets by bailing in senior Novo Banco bondholders.
Novo Banco was the “good” bank forged from the ashes of Banco Espirito Santo which had to be bailed out by the state in August of 2014. The idea was to sell Novo Banco to pay for the cost of the bailout, but the auction process eventually floundered amid turmoil in Chinese markets (at least two of the potential bidders were Chinese) and uncertainty about whether this “good” bank would in fact need more capital given the elevated level of NPLs already on its books.
In November, the ECB told Novo it woudl indeed need to raise some €1.4 billion in fresh capital which the bank initially said would come from asset sales. A little over a month later, Portugal’s central bank essentially just gave up. On December 29, the bank announced it was transferring €2 billion in NB senior notes back to Banco Espirito Santo which, like a ghost skyscraper in China, is set for demolition.
In other words, Novo Banco plugged the €1.4 billion hole by essentially declaring €2 billion in bonds null and void.
There were five issues affected but you can get a pretty good idea about what happened next by having a look at how the 2017s traded that morning:
The reason this had to be done quickly was because if Portugal had waited until January, uninsured depositors would have been at risk under the EU’s new bank resolution mechanism. Plus, Portugal is anxious to get the auction process started again to avoid the decidedly unappealing prospect of having to keep the cost of the bailout on Lisbon’s books in perpetuity thus inflating the fiscal deficit by an extra 3% of GDP.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Last Bubble Standing
Last Bubble Standing
EM debt bubble… emaciated, FX Carry… crucified, Crude…crushed, High yield bonds… burst, Chinese equities… blown, Trannies… trounced, Small Caps… slammed, Biotechs… busted, and FANGs finally FUBAR!But there is one big (very big) bubble left in the world that no one is talking about, and a rather large liquidity-busting pin beckons…
In May 2015 we first explained exactly why China was blowing its equity market bubble. Simply put, with more “equity,” companies were better able to refinance/roll (note, no interest in debt reduction or deleveraging) their record-breaking mountain of debt and avoid the systemic collapse that is utterly imminent for just a few more months/years.
Now that the equity market bubble has burst, Chinese authorities have chased investors into another bubble.
In October 2015, we warned of the relative risk building in the Chinese corporate bond market.
As the rout in Chinese stocks this year erased $5 trillion of value, investors fled for safety in the nation’s red-hot corporate bond market. They may have just moved from one bubble to another.
Into Chinese corporate bonds…
As we detailed just two months ago, this historic bond bubble is paradoxical for the simple reason that China’s credit fundamentals have never been worse, and as we further showed, as a result of the ongoing collapse in commodity prices (which today’s Chinese rate and RRR-cut will have absolutely no impact on), more than half of commodity companies can’t generate the cash required to even pay their interest, a number which drops to “only” a quarter when expanded to all industries.
“The equity rout merely reflects worries about China’s economy, while a bond market crash would mean the worries have become a reality as corporate debts go unpaid,” said Xia Le, the chief economist for Asia at Banco Bilbao. “A Chinese credit collapse would also likely spark a more significant selloff in emerging-market assets.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Russell Napier Explains How The Decline Of The Yuan Destroys Belief In Central Banking
Russell Napier Explains How The Decline Of The Yuan Destroys Belief In Central Banking
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
– The Second Coming- W.B. Yeats
First catch your falcon, as the formidable Mrs Beeton might have said if she was in need of a method of catching her main course (see Mrs Beeton’s Book of Household Management 1861- ‘Recipe for Jugged Hare’).
Having caught your wild falcon, you can now begin the training process. You are attempting to impose your will upon a creature that, in its wild state, catches, kills and devours other birds. This is creative destruction in its rawest form as those acts of savagery provide the fuel to keep our falcon flying. Taming such wild forces is not easy, whether they be birds of prey or the desires, wishes, greed and fear of millions of people determining prices through their supply and also their demand.
Let’s get some advice from the field of falconry for our central bankers, and the other handmaidens of state control, as they seek to impose their wishes on the will and acts of millions-
‘Falconry is a great sport, but there is a lot of time involved. You will want to have enough time to train your bird. If you don’t have the time, or the willingness, then you might as well not do it at all. If you are one of those people who is not patient, falconry may not be for you. You should not take up falconry if you want the falcon as a pet, or something to show off.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Bob Janjuah Warns The Bubble Implosion Can’t Be “Fixed” This Time
Bob Janjuah Warns The Bubble Implosion Can’t Be “Fixed” This Time
As Janjuah said in September (excerpted):
I believe there is more weakness ahead – both fundamentally and within markets – over Q4 and perhaps into Q1 2016.
I repeat my view that the Fed does not need to hike based on fundamentals, but I would not be at all surprised to see the Fed hike in late 2015, in an attempt to convince markets that strong growth and inflation are on their way back. Any such hiking cycle by the Fed would I believe be extremely short-lived and quickly give way to renewed dovishness.While I think a US recession is merely possible rather than probable, the evidence is growing in my view that a global recession is more probable than possible.
Where is the Fed “put”, and what would such a “put” look like? It is very early in the process and lots will depend on global policy responses and data outcomes, but I am happy to declare my view: the next Fed “put” is not likely until the S&P 500 is trading in the 1500s at least (so more likely to be a Q1 2016 item rather than Q4 2015); and in terms of what the Fed could do, clearly QE4 has to be in the Fed’s toolkit.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Big Short is a Great Movie, But…
The Big Short is a Great Movie, But…
Paris — Michael Lewis is the chronicler of Wall Street. He takes the complexity behind which the inhabitants of the financial world hide and weaves a tale that is both understandable and compelling. Starting with the classic “Liars Poker” (1989), Lewis has produced a number of books about the financial markets including “Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt” (2014) and “The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine” (2010). Working with director Adam McKay and some great actors and screen writers, Lewis has managed to produce what is perhaps the most accessible and relevant treatment of the mortgage boom and financial bust of the 2000s, and the subsequent 2008 financial crisis.
The beauty of “The Big Short,” both as a movie and a book, is that it provides sufficient detail to inform the general audience about events and issues that are not part of everyday life. Wall Street is a secretive place, but “The Big Short” manages to convey enough of the details to make the story credible as a journalistic effort, yet also enormously entertaining. Lewis does this with two essential ingredients of any film: a simple story and compelling characters.
Images of greed and stupidity are presented like Italian frescos in “The Big Short,” pictures that are memorable and thought provoking. Indeed, what many people know and remember years from now about the 2008 financial crisis will be shaped by creative efforts such as “The Big Short” for the simple reason that Lewis has simplified the description into a manageable portion. Unlike hedge fund manager Michael Burry (played by Christian Bale), most people lack the patience and expertise to sift through and understand reams of financial data.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Puerto Rico Is Greece, & These 5 States Are Next To Go
Puerto Rico Is Greece, & These 5 States Are Next To Go
Wilbur Ross discusses Puerto Rico’s debt struggles and where it goes from here…
But, as JPMorgan details, Muni risk is on the rise for US states, but broad generalizations do not apply (in other words, these five states are ‘screwed’)…
The direct indebtedness of US states (excluding revenue bonds) is $500 billion. However, bonds are just one part of the picture: states have another trillion in future obligations related to pension and retiree healthcare. In the summer of 2014, we conducted a deep-dive analysis of US states, incorporating bonds, pension obligations and retiree healthcare obligations. After reviewing over 300 Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports from different states, we pulled together an assessment of each state’s total debt service relative to its tax collections, incorporating the need to pay down underfunded pension and retiree healthcare obligations.
While there are five states with significant challenges (Illinois, Connecticut, Hawaii, New Jersey, and Kentucky) , the majority of states have debt service-to-revenue ratios that are more manageable.
As a brief summary, we computed the ratio of debt, pension and retiree healthcare payments to state revenues. The blue bars show what states are currently paying. The orange bars show this ratio assuming that states pay what they owe on a full-accrual basis, assuming a 30-year term for amortizing unfunded pension and retiree healthcare obligations, and assuming a 6% return on pension plan assets.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
