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Will Turkey be the first domino to fall?

Will Turkey be the first domino to fall?  There has been many financial crises over the past century, yet few of those provided much of a warning that they were about to hit.  It only becomes clear after the fact. We then begin to hear speeches on what there was to learn and how to avert any […]

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Turkish Banks Scramble to Stave Off Debt Crisis, as Lira Plummets

Turkish Banks Scramble to Stave Off Debt Crisis, as Lira Plummets Too little, too late? Desperation is rising in Turkey’s banking sector following months of escalating political and financial instability. Benchmark interest rates have been hiked 10 percentage points so far this year to over 17%, making it much more expensive for companies and families […]

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Goldman Warns Turkish Banks Will Be Wiped Out If Lira Hits 7.1

Goldman Warns Turkish Banks Will Be Wiped Out If Lira Hits 7.1 After its worst day in 10 years, the Turkish Lira’s early rebound is already starting to fade amid denied rumors of US officials predicting Lira’s demise, a record high yield at its bond auction, and Goldman warning of the collapse of Turkey’s financial […]

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Turkish Lira Tumbles To Record Low As “Ticking Time Bomb” Looms In Banking System

Turkish Lira Tumbles To Record Low As “Ticking Time Bomb” Looms In Banking System Having exercised his newly-omnipotent capabilities to alter central bank decrees and appointing a puppet cabinet, Turkish President Erdogan is now urging the general public to borrow in the currency in which they are paid, but, as Bloomberg reports, that warning came […]

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“Truly Awful Numbers”: Lira Tumbles After Turkish Inflation Explodes Most In 15 Years

“Truly Awful Numbers”: Lira Tumbles After Turkish Inflation Explodes Most In 15 Years Having stabilized modestly after its mid-June rout, which sent the Turkish Lira to a record low of 4.74 – on the re-election of president Erdogan of all things – overnight the TRY tumbled as much as 1.4% to 4.6813 after Turkey reported […]

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Good as gold: Turkey uses bullion to stabilise its economy

Good as gold: Turkey uses bullion to stabilise its economy Commercial banks are putting gold into Turkey’s central bank to help deal with rapid inflation Turkey’s central bank has accumulated an additional 400 metric tonnes of gold since 2011 (Reuters) Turkey’s economy has been in a tailspin with an inflationary currency, but the country is […]

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“Whispers Of Capital Controls” As Turkish Lira Plunge Resumes

“Whispers Of Capital Controls” As Turkish Lira Plunge Resumes As widely expected , the beneficial boost to the Turkish Lira from yesterday’s emergency 3% hike in the late liquidity window rate by the Turkish Central Bank did not even last one full day, and on Thursday the Turkish Lira collapse resumed, with the currency reversing […]

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Weekly Commentary: Crisis Watch

Weekly Commentary: Crisis Watch Where to begin? Contagion… The Argentine peso dropped another 5.0% this week, bringing y-t-d losses to 23.7%. The Turkish lira fell 3.9%, boosting 2018 losses to 15.4%. As notable, the Brazilian real dropped 3.7% (down 11.5% y-t-d), and the South African rand sank 4.0% (down 3.0% y-t-d). The Colombian peso fell […]

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Turkey – Default or War?

Turkey – Default or War? QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, My father was ______ the banker who commissioned you to do the Turkish lira hedging project in 1983. He passed away as you know. I found this material in his files on Turkey that you apparently published back in 1985. Some articles are saying that Turkey is […]

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Why One Trader Thinks The Turkish Crash Will Lead To EM Contagion

Why One Trader Thinks The Turkish Crash Will Lead To EM Contagion Yesterday when we discussed the dramatic crash in the Turkish lira, resulting from the visa suspension drama at both Turkish and US consulates, we noted that “this is the currency’s seventh consecutive decline, after dropping on Friday amid concern Fed tightening would hurt […]

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Turkey Arrests Journalists, Sets Up Terrorist “Tip Line” As Currency Plunges, Violence Escalates

Turkey Arrests Journalists, Sets Up Terrorist “Tip Line” As Currency Plunges, Violence Escalates Last month, Turkey’s central bank had a chance to give the plunging lira some respite by preempting the Fed and hiking rates. Only they didn’t. And not only did they not hike, they made it clear that tightening would only occur once the Fed […]

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Turkey On The Brink As Calls For Martial Law, Civil War Send Lira Plunging Again

Turkey On The Brink As Calls For Martial Law, Civil War Send Lira Plunging Again For anyone who might have missed it, Turkey is quickly descending into chaos on all fronts. The lira is putting to new lows against the dollar on a daily basis as confidence suffers from a worsening political crisis which began […]

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Turkey Turmoiling: Lira Plunges To Record Low On Financial, Political, Terrorism Fears

Turkey Turmoiling: Lira Plunges To Record Low On Financial, Political, Terrorism Fears Turkey’s lira is once again in free fall, after testing all-time lows against the dollar during multiple sessions of late as political turmoil and civil war wreak havoc on the currency. On Tuesday, the central bank failed to hike rates and delivered what was generally […]

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