On Earth Day, some 171 nations formally signed the Paris climate agreement; it was a mostly symbolic, though meaningful next step. The document now awaits individual ratification and, more specifically, ratification by 55 countries representing 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. When and from where those approvals will come is difficult to say with certainty. How are the targets are then actually met is even less clear. For its part – and well aware of the fact that it has much to do – Germany is in the process of reshaping its transformative Energiewende policy.
To be sure, Germany is no slouch. Over the last two years the country has added roughly 11 and 4 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar capacity respectively. Last year, nearly 33 percent of Germany’s electricity demand was satisfied by renewable sources – wind even out-producedcoal for the first time ever in December. Renewable energy penetration in the power supply is already greater than 100 percent in two German states. Moreover, renewables account for 15.3 percent of gross final energy consumption nationwide, up nearly 2 percent from 2014. Globally, Germany has a top-three wind fleet and the world’s largest solar PV capacity.
But – with high expectations and increasingly heavy realties – there’s still much left to do. As it stands, Germany will not meet its current climate obligations. By 2020, it is estimated that Germany will only have cut greenhouse gas emissions by 32 percent compared to 1990 levels, or well short of its 40 percent target. In fact, GHG emissions have seen year-on-year growth in six out of the last ten years. Persistent, and in some cases growing coal use, combined with backward progress in the transportation sector suggest the current, aggressive electricity transformation is having trouble maturing into a full blown energy shift.
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