Home » Posts tagged 'credit suisse' (Page 2)
Tag Archives: credit suisse
Forget China: This Extremely “Developed” Country Just Suffered Its Biggest Money Outflow Ever
Forget China: This Extremely “Developed” Country Just Suffered Its Biggest Money Outflow Ever
While understandably all eyes have been fixed on every monthly capital outflow update from China (even the ones that the Politburo is clearly massaging), few have noticed that one of the biggest total outflows currently in the global developed economy is taking place right in America’s own back yard.
According to BofA’s Kamal Sharma, Canada’s basic balance – a combination of the capital and the current account: a measure of national accounts that spans everything from trade to financial-market flows – swung from a surplus of 4.2% of GDP to a deficit of 7.9% in the 12 months ending in June. That’s the fastest one-year deterioration among 10 major developed nations.
Citing Sharma’s data Bloomberg writes that “money is flooding out of Canada at the fastest pace in the developed world as the nation’s decade-long oil boom comes to an end and little else looks ready to take the industry’s place as an economic driver.” In fact, based on the chart below, the outflow is the fastest on record.
“This is Canadian investors that are pushing money abroad,” said Alvise Marino, a foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York. “The policy in Canada the last 10 years has greatly favored investments in energy. Now the drop in oil prices made all that investment unprofitable.”
The reasons for the accelerating otflows are familiar, or mostly one reason: the collapse in crude oil, among the nation’s biggest exports, has dropped to half of its 2014 peak. “The slump has derailed projects this year in Canada’s oil sands – one of the world’s most expensive crude-producing regions. Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s decision to put its Carmon Creek drilling project on ice last week lengthened that list to 18, according to ARC Financial Corp.”
Worse, there does not appear to be any improvement, despite the recent stabilization in Brent prices:
Half of world’s wealth now in hands of 1% of population – report
Half of world’s wealth now in hands of 1% of population – report
Inequality growing globally and in the UK, which has third most ‘ultra-high net worth individuals’, household wealth study finds
Global inequality is growing, with half the world’s wealth now in the hands of just 1% of the population, according to a new report.
The middle classes have been squeezed at the expense of the very rich, according to research by Credit Suisse, which also finds that for the first time, there are more individuals in the middle classes in China – 109m – than the 92m in the US.
Tidjane Thiam, the chief executive of Credit Suisse, said: “Middle class wealth has grown at a slower pace than wealth at the top end. This has reversed the pre-crisis trend which saw the share of middle-class wealth remaining fairly stable over time.”
The report shows that a person needs only $3,210 (£2,100) to be in the wealthiest 50% of world citizens. About $68,800 secures a place in the top 10%, while the top 1% have more than $759,900. The report defines wealth as the value of assets including property and stock market investments, but excludes debt.
About 3.4 bn people – just over 70% of the global adult population – have wealth of less than $10,000. A further 1bn – a fifth of the world’s population – are in the $10,000-$100,000 range.
Each of the remaining 383m adults – 8% of the population – has wealth of more than $100,000. This number includes about 34m US dollar millionaires. About 123,800 individuals of these have more than $50m, and nearly 45,000 have more than $100m. The UK has the third-highest number of these “ultra-high net worth” individuals.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Turkey Arrests Journalists, Sets Up Terrorist “Tip Line” As Currency Plunges, Violence Escalates
Turkey Arrests Journalists, Sets Up Terrorist “Tip Line” As Currency Plunges, Violence Escalates
Last month, Turkey’s central bank had a chance to give the plunging lira some respite by preempting the Fed and hiking rates.
Only they didn’t.
And not only did they not hike, they made it clear that tightening would only occur once the Fed tightened and then made matters immeasurably worse by proceeding to stumble through a “roadmap” of how they planned to deal with DM policy normalization. That, combined with political turmoil, an escalating civil war (and yes, that’s what it is), and pressure on EM in general has led directly to further weakness for TRY:
We bring this up because Turkey, like Brazil, is a country to keep an eye on and not only because of the prominent role it will ultimately play in deciding the fate of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, but because much like Brazil, things seem to get worse by the day both economically and politically. Take Thursday for instance, when inflation came in hot, prompting Goldman to suggest that the central bank had indeed missed its window. Here’s Goldman:
Headline and core inflation accelerated sequentially in August, on broad-based price increases. This trend will likely continue, as renewed exchange rate weakness passes through to domestic prices in the coming months, and food disinflation loses momentum. We continue to forecast end-2015 CPI at 8.2% but with moderate upside risks.In our view, the CBRT may have missed an opportunity to start normalising/simplifying its policy framework by keeping all policy rates unchanged in the August MPC meeting. This raises the risk of earlier and more aggressive rate hikes than we have been forecasting. We reiterate our long-held Conviction View to own Turkey protection, through 5-year CDS spreads.
And a bit more from Credit Suisse:
We are revising our headline inflation forecasts higher. Following the lira’s depreciation in August and the recent upside surprises to food price inflation, we are revising our end-2015 inflation forecast to 8.6% from 7.8% previously and our end-2016 inflation forecast to 7.4% from 7.2% previously.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Eurasian Pivot? Moscow Expects “Progress” From Tsipras Visit
Eurasian Pivot? Moscow Expects “Progress” From Tsipras Visit
As Athens prepares to try and convince eurozone creditors that its latest set of proposed reforms represents a credible attempt to address Greece’s fiscal crisis, and as Greek depositors face the very real possibility that they will soon be Cyprus’d, a leverage-less Alexis Tsipras faces a rather unpalatable choice: bow to the Troika which “wants real reforms… meaning that Greece finally has to implement some/any of the long ago promised and never delivered redundancies in the government sector,” or to quote Credit Suisse, be “digitally bombed back to barter status.” Unfortunately for the Greek populace, the latter seems to be far more likely than the former. Here’s WSJ:
Greek proposals for a revised bailout program don’t have enough detail to satisfy the government’s international creditors, eurozone officials said, making it more likely that Athens will need to go several more weeks without a new infusion of desperately-needed cash…“The proposals were piecemeal, vague and the Greek colleagues could not explain technically what some of them actually implied,” a eurozone official said. “So, let’s hope that they present something more competent next week.”
Senior eurozone finance officials will hold a teleconference on Wednesday to discuss the situation, officials said. But they said it is highly unlikely eurozone ministers will meet before mid-April to release more money for Greece. That means Athens will have to scrape together cash to pay salaries and pensions at the end of the month and make a €460 million debt repayment to the IMF on April 9.
As a reminder, here are two charts which demonstrate the urgency of the situation:
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
