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The world’s largest fertilizer company warned supply disruptions could extend into 2023. A bulk of the world’s supply has been taken offline due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. This has sparked soaring prices and shortages of crop nutrients in top growing areas worldwide; an early indication of a global food crisis could be in the beginning innings.

Bloomberg reports Canada-based Nutrien Ltd.’s CEO Ken Seitz told investors on Tuesday during a conference call that he expects to increase potash production following supply disruptions in Russia and Ukraine (both major fertilizer suppliers). Seitz expects disruptions “could last well beyond 2022.”

Seitz said the conflict plus Western sanctions on Russia and Belarus has reduced fertilizer supply on global markets and could reshape crop nutrient trade, thus creating even more supply uncertainty.

“Could there be a change in global trade patterns as a result? We think that’s a possibility,” he said.

Fertilizer disruptions could be a multi-year event. Already, farmers worldwide are reducing fertilizers, which may threaten yields come harvest time. The repercussions could be huge: Lower yields may exacerbate the food crisis.

Here are the latest signs commercial farmers worldwide are reducing fertilizer usage because of higher prices or shortages.

Revealed last week, SLC Agricola SA, one of Brazil’s largest farming operations, managing fields of soybeans, corn, and cotton fields in an area larger than the state of Delaware, will reduce the use of fertilizer by 20% and 25%.

Coffee farmers in Brazil, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Costa Rica, some of the largest coffee-producing countries, are expected to spread less fertilizer because of high costs and shortages. A coffee cooperative representing 1,200 farmers in Costa Rica predicts coffee output could slip 15% next year because of soaring fertilizer costs.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

WEF Issues Ominous Warning Over Coming Food Crisis, Recommends ‘More Sustainable Diets’

March 22, 2022

WEF Issues Ominous Warning Over Coming Food Crisis, Recommends ‘More Sustainable Diets’

Did you see the ratio Bloomberg just earned for a tweet which recommends getting used to lentils instead of meat, switching to public transportation, and avoiding buying things in bulk?

The piece, written by economist Teresa Ghilarducci, recommends that families earning under $300,000 per year consider switching to public transportation, embracing a veggie diet, and “rethink those costly pet medical needs.”

The intellectual heavyweight oddly retweeted someone slamming her advice.

Which is being parodied throughout social media…

Unsurprisingly, Ghilarducci and the far-left “New School for Social Research” she works for is affiliated with the World Economic Forum (WEF) – which, in addition to bragging about having ‘infiltrated‘ various world governments – infamously suggested that people get used to eating bugs due to inevitable food shortages, and

Yes, this WEF:

Which brings us to the WEF’s latest – warning of an impending food crisis kicked off by the war in Ukraine.

Key points:

More people around the world will go hungry as a result of the pandemic, high fuel prices and the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia and Ukraine are also major producers and suppliers of fertilizers and their raw materials.
Existing logistical issues with moving grain and food are likely to worsen.
Disruptions will put further pressure on this year’s harvest and lead to higher food prices.
Even before the pandemic, the FAO estimated that 690 million people or 9% of the world’s population, were facing food insecurity.

In short, the Ukraine war is accelerating the existing problem of inflation and food shortages, so hold on to your hats and consider a ‘more sustainable diet’ because things are about to get much, much worse.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Falling oil inventories is what matters, not geopolitics: Eric Nuttall

February 16, 2022

Falling oil inventories is what matters, not geopolitics: Eric Nuttall

Video: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/falling-oil-inventories-is-what-matters-not-geopolitics-eric-nuttall~2382581?fbclid=IwAR35n9dgxwTWlZkX2bEYyy72SOGJR0eQM3MkFzRENmj9S8oDz0xkI9XfP8o

Oil prices are retreating as tensions between Russia and Ukraine ease and investors grow more concerned about an Iran nuclear deal, so what does it all mean for the oil market long-term? Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager of Ninepoint Partners, joins BNN Bloomberg for his outlook.

Callling a Super Bubble: Front Row With Jeremy Grantham

January 30, 2022

Callling a Super Bubble: Front Row With Jeremy Grantham

How to Sell ‘Carbon Neutral’ Fossil Fuel That Doesn’t Exist

August 12, 2021

How to Sell ‘Carbon Neutral’ Fossil Fuel That Doesn’t Exist

Energy companies are starting to pitch the idea that planet-warming natural gas can be erased by paying villagers to protect forests. Experts can’t make the math work.

undefined — Volunteers clear vegetation that would otherwise stoke wildfires in forests around their village near Mbire, Zimbabwe. Their work is funded, in part, by the sale of fossil fuel thousands of miles away.

Photographer: Cynthia Matonhodze/Bloomberg

Total had proposed the trade after learning a client had already purchased two carbon-neutral cargos from rivals at Royal Dutch Shell Plc, according to people with knowledge of the deal who asked not to be named discussing a private transaction. One of these insiders said that only after getting the go-ahead did the inexperienced team attempt to figure out how to neutralize the emissions contained in a hulking tanker full of liquified natural gas. Their first step was to search the internet for worthy environmental projects that might offset the pollution.

relates to How to Sell ‘Carbon Neutral’ Fossil Fuel That Doesn’t Exist — ‘This whole bush can be razed to the ground if we don’t do what we’re doing,’ says Kembo Magonyo, one of the volunteers.

Photographer: Cynthia Matonhodze/Bloomberg

Thousands of miles away, a Zimbabwean volunteer named Kembo Magonyo would spend the spring months clearing stubborn jumbles of branches near the thickly forested border with Mozambique. Wildfires tend to leap between the two countries, laying waste to trees before anyone can respond. “This whole bush can be razed to the ground if we don’t do what we’re doing,” Magonyo says, hacking away with his machete. His work is organized by a group partly funded by Total’s carbon-neutral deal.

In the complicated new math of climate solutions, villagers clearing brush in southern Africa can end up redefining networks of global commerce worth billions of dollars. Environmental projects stand as shadow partners to emission-heavy energy trades happening far away.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Worst Drought in 91 Years Turns Brazil Into Hot Spot for LNG

June 6, 2021

Worst Drought in 91 Years Turns Brazil Into Hot Spot for LNG

State-run oil company is seeking liquefied natural gas cargoes
Water crisis curbs hydropower supplies across South America

As hydropower output declines, South America’s most populous nation is turning to the super-chilled fuel to keep lights on for its 212 million people. Brazil has already imported a record number of LNG cargoes just from the U.S. this year while state-run oil company Petrobras SA is tapping the spot market for another four.

The drought comes as the nation — which boosted its ability to import LNG in 2014 to avoid blackouts during soccer’s World Cup — is facing declining gas production from major supplier Bolivia. The conditions are also affecting other countries in South America, with Chile seeking to buy LNG and traders speculating Argentina could be next.

Brazil's Thermal Power Rises as Hydro Slides

“South America is running out of hydropower because of dry weather, and I wouldn’t be surprised if buyers all across the region were buying more LNG,” said Henning Gloystein, global director of energy and natural resources at consultants Eurasia Group. “Besides Southeast Asia and India, South America is a growth area for gas demand.”

Hydropower currently accounts for about 70% of Brazil’s electricity mix, and the lack of rainfall has forced the country to import 34 U.S. LNG cargoes over the past six months to bridge the power-supply gap, shipping data compiled by Bloomberg show. That eclipses the 17 sent to Chile and four to Mexico, which has long been the top buyer of U.S. LNG in the Western Hemisphere. Brazilian imports are approaching levels typically seen only from buyers in Asia and Europe.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Save Earth Get Rich

April 24, 2021

Save Earth Get Rich

Henri Matisse Flowers 1907

I sometimes can’t believe I think I must revisit this theme time and again, but here we are. Joe Biden is chairing a virtual climate plan/summit/whatever, and absolutely nothing has changed since the last time I tried to explain why it is nonsense, or all the other times before that. But this is the biggest boondoggle/cheat/trick ever played on mankind, so what choice do I have?

It’s still a bunch of politicians all over the world who are beholden to a bunch of extremely rich people for their cushy positions and claim they intend to save the world hand in hand with these rich people. In other words, our resident sociopaths and psychopaths are the only ones who can save us. But you’re going to have to pay up, or they won’t do it.

It’s all an intensely moronic piece of theater (no, I won’t insult Kabuki!), but since all the media is in on it, who would know that? It’s the biggest show on earth! Your carrots are jobs, profit, and a saved planet for your children. What’s not to like?

Biden’s billionaire political sponsors promise to save you, but of course they do need to make a profit off it. One that is preferably larger than the profits they have been making over the past decades off of the very things they now pretend to condemn, and are still invested in, fossil fuels.

Of course they know that will never happen, but they also know that you do not. So here goes. This intro from the Guardian, written before Ol’ Joe opened Day Two, tries some critical notes, but that’s just to lift the party mode even higher.

Joe Biden To Stress Green Jobs As Key To Tackling Crisis At Climate Summit

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

What To Expect From Today’s OPEC+ Meeting: Another Saudi Surprise?

April 1, 2021

What To Expect From Today’s OPEC+ Meeting: Another Saudi Surprise?

After Wednesday’s JMMC meeting ended without reaching a recommendation (as is customary and expected), the key decision-making OPEC+ meeting – where ministers will hammer out May’s output quotas – begins at 1pm London Time. As Newsquawk notes, market expectations are skewed towards an extension of current cuts, but a clear stance from Saudi – who have a tendency to surprise in recent months – remains to be seen, namely on the decision regarding the extra 1MM barrels the Kingdom has kept offline since the start of the year.

Commenting on today’s key event, Bloomberg’s Jake Lloyd-Smith reminds us that Saudi Arabia has sprung some big surprises in the oil market already this year, and may do so again today as OPEC+ grapples with a thorny decision on supply. That could make for a volatile session before the long weekend, and already has with oil whipsawing from gains to losses in jittery trading, amid market rumors that OPEC+ is i) considering a return to phased monthly oil-output hikes and ii) is also considering maintaining current cuts, according to a delegate… which pretty much covers every base so is completely useless.

As such, while the consensus view is the grouping will stick with deep output curbs to safeguard crude’s recovery, there’s an outside chance of alternative outcomes. These span the twin extremes, from releasing barrels to tightening further.

At issue is the varied recovery across key regions. For every rosy demand metric from the U.S. or China, there’s a poor one from Europe as lockdowns make a comeback. In addition, Riyadh faces a headache from rival Iran, which has been pushing clandestine barrels into China despite U.S. sanctions…

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

opec+, oil and gas industry, zerohedge, saudi arabia, russia, iran, china, united states, economic sanctions, oil, oil price, bloomberg

Shale Giants Proving OPEC Right

March 13, 2021

Shale Giants Proving OPEC Right

Saudi Arabia’s bet that the golden age of U.S. shale is over appears to be a safe one – for now, at least.

(Bloomberg) — Saudi Arabia’s bet that the golden age of U.S. shale is over appears to be a safe one — for now, at least.

A round-up of data on shale drillers shows they’re sticking to their pledge to cut costs, return money to shareholders and reduce debt. If they stay the course, it would validate the OPEC+ alliance’s high-stakes wager that it can curb output and drive crude prices higher without unleashing an onslaught of supply from U.S. rivals.

That’s still a big “if,” one that’s keeping the oil market on edge as crude’s rally makes it more tempting for shale producers to go back on their word. But the U.S. shale patch is showing little sign of a true comeback so far, and even a dramatic boost in activity would leave oil output below pre-pandemic levels until late next year. Drillers that have shown signs of straying from the script and boosting production have been punished by investors.

Publicly traded explorers that are remaining disciplined on output are helping to keep crude prices aloft, said Michael Tran, managing director for global energy strategy research at RBC Capital Markets. The motives of closely held producers, on the other hand, remain “an open-ended question,” he said. The number of oil rigs has already jumped 80% after bottoming out in August, Baker Hughes data show.

The more restrained shale drillers are this year, “the more they can potentially grow production at higher prices next year and beyond,” Tran said.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bloomberg, M.Tobin, D.Wethe, K.Crowley, oil price, oil, crude oil, saudi arabia, shale oil, opec+, rigzone.com

Aramco’s Carbon Emissions Could Be “Nearly Double” What The Company Discloses

January 22, 2021

Aramco’s Carbon Emissions Could Be “Nearly Double” What The Company Discloses

It was no secret that leading up to Saudi Arabian Oil Co.’s IPO in 2019 that the company touted its low emissions compared to other producers.

Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said while the company was doing its roadshows: “Not because our crude is cleaner than other crudes globally. It’s because of our standards. Even though our numbers are great, climate change is critical for the world.”

But now, it appears the company may have “failed to provide a complete picture”, according to a new Bloomberg report. The report says that Aramco fails to account for emissions generated from many of its refineries and petrochemical plants.

Inclusive of the omissions, Bloomberg estimates that the company’s carbon footprint would “nearly double”, and that Aramco would add as much as 55 million metric tons of CO2 to its annual tally.

Now that investors “need to be able to put a price on the climate risks that they are running in their portfolios,” as one commodity researcher put it, the carbon footprint numbers can easily turn into a “red flag”.

When Bloomberg reached Aramco for questioning, the company replied: “We have a clear and deliberate path to increase the scope and details of [emissions] disclosure.” It said its current number “reflects emissions from those assets where Aramco has the accountability and ability to manage and control emissions.”

The company gets away with its current disclosures by pointing to the process of extracting the oil in Saudi Arabia. It will often cite studies that show that extraction of Saudi oil generates the second lowest amount of emissions in the world.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bloomberg Analysts: “Gold the Asset to Beat in 2021”

January 12, 2021

Bloomberg Analysts: “Gold the Asset to Beat in 2021”

Bloomberg: Gold to outperform S&P 500 & Bonds in 2021

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Gold to spearhead precious metals’ outperformance in 2021, why 2020 was a very good year for national mints, and birdwatcher unearths biggest-ever hoard of Celtic gold in Britain.

Bloomberg analysts: A $2,000 price tag will make gold the asset to beat in 2021

Among traditional assets, it would be difficult to beat gold for the title of top performer in 2020. Having hit a new all-time high of $2,070 in August, the metal has traded around its previous all-time high of $1,911 ever since. And though gold has appeared somewhat rangebound over the previous months, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone sees this as a stepping stone on the way towards an even better year.

According to McGlone, the $2,000 level that gold appears to have had difficulty recapturing is poised to become the metal’s next support, making it the asset to beat once again. “In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by how low — or negative — central banks will set base rates, along with rising debt-to-GDP and QE, we see the foundation solidifying under the price of gold. Resistance at about $2,000 an ounce in 2020 is set to transition to support in 2021,” he explained.

McGlone added rising volatility to the list of reasons why he can’t imagine gold’s price rise stopping, especially as the metal has held steadfast to its upwards-pointing 12-month moving average. In what has by now become a common scenario, McGlone expects gold to continue outperforming the record-setting S&P 500 along with sovereign bonds.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak Oil is Suddenly Upon Us

December 3, 2020

Planes stopped flying. Office workers stayed home. “Zooming with the grandkids” replaced driving to see family. A year of global hunkering yielded the sharpest drop in oil consumption since Henry Ford cobbled together the first Model T. At its worst, global demand dropped by a staggering 29 million barrels a day.

As a once-in-a-century pandemic played out, British oil giant BP Plc in September made an extraordinary call: Humanity’s thirst for oil may never again return to prior levels. That would make 2019 the high-water mark in oil history.

BP wasn’t the only one sounding an alarm. While none of the prominent forecasters were quite as bearish, predictions for peak oil started popping up everywhere. Even OPEC, the unflappably bullish cartel of major oil exporters, suddenly acknowledged an end in sight—albeit still two decades away. Taken together these forecasts mark an emerging view that this year’s drop in oil demand isn’t just another crash-and-grow event as seen throughout history. Covid-19 has accelerated long-term trends that are transforming where our energy comes from. Some of those changes will be permanent.

It’s often difficult to recognize civilization-sized shifts in behavior until after they’ve occurred. Until the pandemic none of the major oil forecasters had seen an imminent demand peak. The debate won’t end now, especially with signs that the pandemic will ease in 2021. But if we look back from here and see the oil peak clearly in the past, what follows will be the evidence of how the energy future snuck up on us.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World’s Negative-Yield Debt Pile Has Just Hit a New Record

November 9, 2020

World’s Negative-Yield Debt Pile Has Just Hit a New Record

$17 trillion of investment-grade debt now has sub-zero rates
U.K. and Australian central banks expand bond-buying programs

The market value of the Bloomberg Barclays Global Negative Yielding Debt Index rose to $17.05 trillion on Thursday, the highest level ever recorded and narrowly eclipsing the $17.04 trillion it reached in August 2019.

Almost $600 billion of bonds have seen their yields turn negative this week, meaning 26% of the world’s investment-grade debt is now sub-zero. Thanks to the slew of global issuance in 2020 as governments and companies wrestle with the impact of the coronavirus, that remains below 30% peak reached last year.

Global supply of bonds with negative yields hits record $17 trillion

The borrowing binge has been mostly met with trillions of dollars of quantitative easing that suppress yields. Just this week, the Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia announced plans to expand their bond-buying programs, while the Federal Reserve discussed a shift.

For investors watching yields vanish, it’s become a dilemma: make riskier bets in order to boost income or accept lower returns.

“There are still return hurdles that investors will try to reach but that is not something you can get in a large share of fixed income products at this point,” said Richard Kelly, head of global strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank. “This will drive a further push out the risk curve for investors, be that equities, credit, or long-end bonds.”

While much of the sub-zero debt pile is denominated in euros and yen, dashed expectations for a massive fiscal spending package under a unified Democratic government are also whittling down Treasury yields.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“The Largest Ever Physical Transfer Of Gold”

May 30, 2020

“The Largest Ever Physical Transfer Of Gold”

Two months ago, when the market was in a state of near-total chaos as a result of a sudden collapse in global supply chains due to the hasty coronavirus lockdowns, one market that saw unprecedented turmoil was that of physical gold.

As we pointed out in late March, due to a sudden breakdown in physical gold supply as the world’s top gold refiners, those located in the southern Swiss town of Ticino, namely Valcambi, Pamp and Argor-Heraeus, suddenly stopped producing gold, the result was a record divergence in the price of spot gold vs gold futures contracts…

… with gold futures decoupling and trading far above spot prices.

The resulting record divergence in gold futures vs spot (in some way analogous to what happened to the price of the prompt WTI contract in April, when the May WTI contract traded as low as ($40) as traders were willing to pay buyers to store oil in a world where there was suddenly no space for the physical commodity), unleashed a flood of physical gold into the US as a record scramble by traders rushing to take advantage of this arbitrage opportunity by shipping bullion to New York sparked what Bloomberg said “may be one of the largest ever physical transfers of the metal.“

“The flows into New York are unprecedented,” Allan Finn, the global commodities director at logistics and security provider Malca-Amit told Bloomberg as his company’s teams in New York have been working 24 hours a day to cope with unprecedented demand for physical gold while navigating lockdowns, flight disruptions and social distancing.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Crisis In Processing” – Pandemic Exposes Fragility Of Food Supply Chain

April 29, 2020

“Crisis In Processing” – Pandemic Exposes Fragility Of Food Supply Chain

Today’s food supply chain crisis began in the meat industry has been developing for decades, and Tyson Foods has helped to create the disaster that is currently unfolding.

The problem is consolidation, and with Tyson, JBS SA and Cargill Inc, three mega-corporations that control 66% of America’s beef, as much of it is processed in just a few dozen meatpacking facilities across the US. Only a few companies also dominate pork and Chicken.

There have been at least 12 closures of meatpacking plants in April because of virus-related issues among employees. This has resulted in at least 25% of pork and 10% of beef processing capacity coming offline in the last several weeks, reported Bloomberg.

“This is 100% a symptom of consolidation,” said Christopher Leonard, author of “The Meat Racket,” which examines the protein industry. “We don’t have a crisis of supply right now. We have a crisis in processing. And the virus is exposing the profound fragility that comes with this kind of consolidation.”

On Sunday, Tyson Foods warned in a full-page ad in the New York Times that the “food supply chain is breaking.”

“As pork, beef and chicken plants are being forced to close, even for short periods of time, millions of pounds of meat will disappear from the supply chain,” wrote Tyson Chairman John Tyson, patriarch of the company’s founding family, in a Tyson Foods website post that also ran as a full-page ad in several newspapers. “The food supply chain is breaking.”

Then on Tuesday, President Trump signed an order for meatpacking facilities to remain open during the pandemic. With plants being forced to stay open as the fast-spreading virus infects workers, that doesn’t necessarily mean workers will show up to work. We discussed that over the weekend in a piece titled “American Farms Cull Millions Of Chickens Amid Virus-Related Staff Shortages At Processing Plants.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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