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Perhaps the most extraordinary part of Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel was that it was countered by a coalition that included Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It is also noteworthy that this was the first time that the United States engaged militarily in Israel’s defense.

The events of April did not begin with the October 6, 2023 strike on Israel from Gaza but have their origins decades earlier. It is now evident, however, that the catalyst for Hamas’ attack was the impending normalization of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

This would have had significant consequences for Israel’s oil supply, an important aspect of the present crisis that is rarely discussed by the press or politicians. Almost everything is about oil in the Middle East.

The Saudis were ready to join the Abraham Accords that in 2020 established ties between the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco and Israel on regional security and trade.

As a direct consequence, Israel was officially moved under the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility in early 2021, shifting from its decades-long alignment with the U.S. European Command (EUCOM).

The timing of the Gaza incursion into Israel in October was designed to prevent Saudi Arabia from joining the Abraham Accords.

It is hardly a coincidence that Houthi attacks on shipping in the Suez Canal and the Red Sea started in November. Almost 9 million barrels of oil per day (mmb/d) pass through the Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

It’s worth recalling that the Houthis have been in an armed conflict with Saudi Arabia in Yemen since 2015, and were responsible for attacking the main Saudi refinery complex in 2019. Both Hamas and the Houthis, along with Hezbollah in Lebanon, are funded and largely directed by Iran.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Dominoes Falling As Biden Admin Deals With Twin Energy Crisis In Russia, Middle East

March 26, 2024

Dominoes Falling As Biden Admin Deals With Twin Energy Crisis In Russia, Middle East

A twin crisis is unfolding for the Biden administration as the US tax-payer-funded Ukrainian military bombs key crude refineries deep within Russian territory with suicide drones. The administration has pleaded with the Ukranians to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure as this will only contribute to tightening global supplies and push energy prices higher, as well as inflation in the US, hurting Biden’s re-election odds.

Now for the other crisis that’s unfolding in the Middle East: US Vice President Kamala Harris told ABC’s “This Week” that a major attack on the Gazan city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians have sought refuge, “would be a huge mistake.”

“We have been clear in multiple conversations and in every way that any major military operation in Rafah would be a huge mistake,” Harris said.

She added: “I have studied the maps – there’s nowhere for those folks to go. And we’re looking at about a million and a half people in Rafah who are there because they were told to go there.”

Harris was asked whether there would be “consequences” from the US on an Israeli counteroffensive in Rafah. She responded, “I am ruling out nothing.”

This comes as The Jerusalem Post said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior officials say an operation into the southern Gazan city is “imminent.”

Bloomberg quoted Israeli intelligence that estimate about 5,000 to 8,000 Hamas fighters are in Rafah.

As we’ve explained before, in the note titled “Terrified” Joe Biden Demands Ukraine Halt Strikes On Russian Refiners As It Is Sending Oil Prices Surging,” Biden’s foreign policy has been and always been about crude markets.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

‘Do not play with fire’ Yemen warns EU as Brussels embarks on Red Sea mission

February 21, 2024

‘Do not play with fire’ Yemen warns EU as Brussels embarks on Red Sea mission

EU warships have set off for the Red Sea, where the US navy is waging its largest conflict since the end of WWII in support of Israel

(Photo Credit: Getty Images)

A high-ranking Yemeni official has warned the EU against “supporting the American devil to protect [Israel]” following the formal launch of the Aspides naval mission in the Red Sea.

“For Europeans, do not play with fire. Take a lesson from Britain,” Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a senior member of Yemen’s Supreme Political Council, said via social media on 20 February.

“You do not need the support of the American devil in protecting the occupying entity so that it can exterminate the people of Gaza with no disturbance,” Houthi added, stressing that “international navigation is safe.”

His message followed an announcement by Brussels of the official launch of the EU naval operation codenamed Aspides – Greek for shield.

“I welcome today’s decision … Europe will ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, working alongside our international partners. Beyond crisis response, it’s a step towards a stronger European presence at sea to protect our European interests,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said via social media.

France, Germany, Italy, and Belgium have said they will contribute ships to the EU mission in support of Israel.

The bloc’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, described the mission as “bold action to protect the commercial and security interests of the EU and the international community.”

With a mandate initially set for one year, Aspides will see the deployment of EU warships and airborne early warning systems to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and surrounding waters. According to officials in Brussels, the mission will be exclusively defensive, and its forces will not partake in US-led attacks against Yemen.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

How Yemen’s ‘asabiyya’ is reshaping geopolitics

January 28, 2024

How Yemen’s ‘asabiyya’ is reshaping geopolitics

The Arabic word Asabiyya, or ‘social solidarity,’ is a soundbite in the west, but taken very seriously by the globe’s new contenders China, Russia, and Iran. It is Yemen, however, that is mainstreaming the idea, by sacrificing everything for the world’s collective morality in a bid to end the genocide in Gaza.

Photo Credit: The Cradle

When there is a general change of conditions,

It is as if the entire creation had changed

and the whole world been altered,

as if it were a new and repeated creation,

a world brought into existence anew.

— Ibn Khaldun

Yemen’s Ansarallah resistance forces have made it very clear, right from the start, that they set up a blockade in the Bab el-Mandeb and the southern Red Sea only against Israeli-owned or destined shipping vessels. Their single objective was and remains to stop the Gaza genocide perpetrated by the Israeli biblical psychopathy.

As a response to a morally-based call to end a human genocide, the United States, masters of the Global War Of Terror (italics mine), predictably re-designated Yemen’s Houthis as a “terrorist organization,” launched a serial bombardment of underground Ansarallah military installations (assuming US intel know where they are), and cobbled together a mini-coalition of the willing that includes its UK, Canadian, Australian, Dutch, and Bahraini vassals.

Without missing a beat, Yemen’s Parliament declared the US and UK governments “Global Terrorist Networks.”

Now let’s talk strategy.

With a single move, the Yemeni resistance seized the strategic advantage by de facto controlling a key geoeconomic bottleneck: the Bab el-Mandeb. Hence, they can inflict serious trouble on sectors of global supply chains, trade, and finance.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

‘Playground of choice’: Iran mobilises to drive US troops out of Iraq

January 23, 2024

‘Playground of choice’: Iran mobilises to drive US troops out of Iraq

The US has the cudgel of the American dollar to prevent its expulsion from Iraq, but will the Biden administration use it?

When Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani arrived in New York City in September for the UN General Assembly, a delicate truce was in balance between the two foreign powers that loom over Baghdad.

Iraqi paramilitaries, backed by Iran, had frozen their attacks on US troops in the country. Iraq’s new leader arrived in New York City amid the lull. He was feted on a circuit of swanky receptions with western businessmen and diplomats on the sidelines of the General Assembly, as he pitched Iraq’s oil-rich but corruption-riddled economy as an investment destination.

Four months later, the Iraqi leader is condemning Iran and the US for launching deadly strikes in his country and his investment pitch to the global elite at Davos Switzerland is overshadowed by his call for the US military and its coalition partners to leave Iraq.

Since the Hamas-led attacks on 7 October and the war in Gaza, Iranian-backed militias have launched at least 70 attacks on US forces in Iraq.

In early January, the US hit back with its most powerful response yet, launching a drone strike in Baghdad that killed Mushtaq Taleb al-Saidi, also known as Abu Taqwa, a senior commander in the Popular Mobilisation Units, an umbrella organisation of Iraqi state-funded and Iran-aligned, Shia militias.

Baghdad hit out at the strike as “a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty”. But no sooner was Iraq chastising the US for the strike, when Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles into the Iraqi city of Erbil, killing four people, including a prominent Kurdish real estate developer and his one-year-old daughter.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Rickards’ Five 2024 Forecasts

December 17, 2023

I have five forecasts for 2024 to help keep you ahead of the curve in positioning your investment portfolio.

My overall forecast is that 2024 will be more tumultuous and shocking than 2023. That may seem hard to credit.

With two major wars going on, an indicted former president and a demented current president, how can 2024 be more challenging than 2023?

Rest assured; it will be. I explain why below.

An Election of Dire Consequences

It’s a cliche to write that the next presidential election will be the “most important in our lifetimes.” Yet in 2024 that cliche will actually be true.

The divide between the two parties is probably greater than at any time in U.S. political history since the Civil War. The choice could not be more stark and the stakes could not be higher.

That’s why this election is so important.

First off, I don’t think that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee for president.

Biden’s problem is not just his age, but the fact that he actually is mentally and physically impaired. He’s simply not fit to be president, and everyone knows it even if Democratic operatives and media sycophants don’t want to mention it. But who will replace Biden?

The most likely replacements are Gavin Newsom, J.B. Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer and Jennifer Granholm. All four were or are state governors. They’re all about the same ideologically; take your pick. Forget Kamala Harris; she’s simply too much of a liability.

The Republican Side

On the Republican side, there’s not a lot to say. Trump will be the nominee; no one can recall a non-incumbent with such a large lead in the polls.

He’s leading the pack by 55 points or more and is now even running ahead of Joe Biden in recent polls.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Israel, Gaza, and the Struggle for Oil

December 16, 2023

Israel, Gaza, and the Struggle for Oil

Aerial View of Haifa oil refineries. Photo: Meronim, CC BY-SA 4.0 Deed.

It was the sign that got to me. I was standing with protesters outside the Burlington (VT) City Hall at a rally organized by Jewish Voice for Peace. To my left I spotted a man, grim-faced and silent, holding aloft a piece of cardboard with these words scratched in black:

“Jews against Genocide.”

“So it has finally come to this,” I said to myself.

Why, I wondered, would Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Biden administration risk their standing in the world and ignore calls for a ceasefire? Did they have an unspoken agenda?

As a chronicler of the endless post-9/11 wars in the Middle East, I concluded that the end game was likely connected to oil and natural gas, discovered off the coast of Gaza, Israel and Lebanon in 2000 and 2010 and estimated to be worth $500 billion. The discovery promised to fuel massive development schemes involving the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.

Also at stake was the transformation of the eastern Mediterranean into a heavily militarized energy corridor that could supply Europe with its energy needs as the war in Ukraine dragged on.

Here was the tinderbox waiting to explode that I had predicted in 2022. Now it was exploding before our very eyes. And at what cost in human lives?

Eastern Mediterranean, Oil and Gas Reserves

Map of the Eastern Mediterranean region showing the area included in the USGS Levant Basin Province assessment. Photo credit: USGS.

Reflections on the Israeli War on Gaza

The year 1975 was my last in beautiful, cosmopolitan Beirut, Lebanon, before it descended into 15 years of brutal civil war, killing 100,000 people.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

War, Peace, And That Other Thing.

November 30, 2023

War, Peace, And That Other Thing.

Understanding political violence.

I was thinking of writing something about Gaza this week, but frankly I don’t have the detailed knowledge of the region, nor for that matter experience of fighting in tunnels, to add to what’s already been said elsewhere. But reading some of this coverage made me realise, again, how little our society really understands and is prepared to acknowledge about the roots and purposes of political violence, and so I thought it might be interesting to discuss that subject, looping back to the current situation in Gaza at the end.

Let’s start with the obvious point that western Liberal society likes clear distinctions and opposites in all areas of life. We are a profoundly Aristotelian society: everything is either A or B, there is nothing in the middle. Because real life itself is messy, this produces endless complex and ultimately pointless arguments about precisely where to draw a dividing line, and whether this or that act or event or pronouncement is ultimately acceptable, or whether it should be rejected and cast into outer darkness. Thus, everything to do with the use of force in politics is presented in stark, opposed terms: war vs. peace, violence vs negotiations, conflict vs cooperation, and of course good vs. bad. And then we wonder why we cannot understand the world, and why the behaviour of many of its actors surprises us so often.

Most civilisations before the modern western era have not seen things this way, and quite a few still don’t. According to taste, we can follow the theories of Ian McGilchrist, arguing that we live in an epoch of dangerous left-brain domination, which sees everything in terms of binary opposites and infinitely detailed differences…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Israel A ‘Nuclear Wildcard’ On ‘Dangerous Road To Armageddon’: Macgregor

October 24, 2023

Israel A ‘Nuclear Wildcard’ On ‘Dangerous Road To Armageddon’: Macgregor

Tucker Carlson sat down with Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret.), who laid out a disturbing scenario in which the United States could quickly be pulled into a direct conflict with Iran, Russia and China over Israel’s anticipated response to the October 7 Hamas attack.

Carlson starts off highlighting Lindsey Graham, who vowed; “…if Hezbollah, which is a proxy of Iran, launches a massive attack on Israel, I consider that a threat to the… state of Israel, existential in nature. I will introduce a resolution [in] the United States Senate to allow military action by the United States in conjunction with Israel to knock Iran out of the Oil Business…”

Carlson then asks: “So what would war with Iran mean? Well, it’s hard to know because virtually no one who’s talking about it in public is operating from a deep interest in America’s interest. Is this good for us, or is it not?”

If, as Sen. Graham suggests, we start bombing critical infrastructure in Iran, Macgregor warns “the destruction would be wholesale” as Iran would target “all the bases we have in Iraq and Syria – with around 1000 Americans – would be targeted… and this time accurately.“

According to Macgregor, “The chosen destination” if we continue on this path, “is Armageddon,” and the implications (of which nobody seems to be considering) for the United States, Europe, and the Middle East are grave. For example, “just on the economic side, about 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Straits of Hormuz every month – probably 25% of liquefied natural gas, and you’re talking about shutting down 2 to three million barrels a day of oil from Iran.

“You know this entire region is involved in the war. This is not an Iranian Monopoly by any stretch of the imagination,” he continued.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Sword of Damocles

October 15, 2023

The Sword of Damocles

An economic worst-case scenario for the Israeli-Palestine war (Free)

On Tuesday, I published a post on X (Twitter), which summarized an economic worst-case scenario for the Israeli-Palestine war. It included 10 points:

The conflict escalates into a regional war with the U.S. becoming directly involved.
OPEC responds with an oil embargo.
Iran closes the strait of Hormuz.
The price of oil reaches $300/barrel.
Europe succumbs into a full-blown energy crisis due to LNG shortage.
Massive spike in energy prices reinvigorates inflation with central banks responding accordingly.
Financial markets and the global banking sector collapse.
Debt crisis engulfs the U.S. forcing the Federal Reserve to enact yet another financial market bailout.
Petrodollar trade collapses.
Hyperinflation emerges.

In this entry, I go through each step.

History rhymes?

In October 1973, Israel fought the Yom Kippur War against a coalition of Arab States led by Egypt and Syria. As a result of this, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries proclaimed an oil embargo against western countries supporting Israel. In six months, the price of oil rose by nearly 300%, globally, and even more in the U.S., which at that time had become dependent on the Middle-Eastern oil.

In the current time, in the worst-case, Israel launches a major counter-offensive against Palestine leading to a declaration of war, to Israel, from Iran and Syria (others may join too). In this situation, the U.S. would be almost surely forced to respond and take part in the defense of Israel. The Ford carrier strike group (which includes world’s largest warship, USS Gerald R. Ford) has been dispatched to eastern Mediterranean and the Biden administration has been reported of considering sending another carrier strike group to eastern Mediterranean. There are also rumors of U.S. military cargo planes making routine trips to Israel.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

US Confirms 2nd Carrier Group En Route To “Deter Hostile Actions Against Israel”

October 15, 2023

US Confirms 2nd Carrier Group En Route To “Deter Hostile Actions Against Israel”

Update (2100ET): The Pentagon has ordered a second carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean Sea, according to two US officials, as Israel prepares to expand its Gaza operations.

The first carrier strike group, led by the USS Gerald R. Ford, arrived off the coast of Israel earlier this week.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced on Saturday night that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrying nine aircraft squadrons, as well as two guided-missile destroyers and a guided-missile cruiser, will soon join the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group in the region to “deter hostile actions against Israel or any efforts toward widening this war following Hamas’s attack on Israel.”

The Biden administration made clear that the carrier, and its accompanying force, are not there to engage in combat activities on behalf of Israel but rather to deter others from entering the conflict, including Hezbollah.

“The increases to US force Posture signal the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security and our resolve to deter any state or non-state actor seeking to escalate this war,” Austin stated.

Additionally, the US administration has so far ruled out sending military personnel into Gaza as part of any Israeli ground invasion or attempt to free American hostages there, only aiding the IDF with intelligence and operation planning.

* * *

Update (1330ET): The Israeli military has announced it is prepared for a coordinated air, ground and naval offensive in the Gaza Strip “very soon,” according to reports from AP.

In a nationally broadcast address Saturday night, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari issued a new appeal to residents to move to the southern Gaza Strip.

“We are going to broadly attack Gaza City very soon,” he said.

He accused Hamas of trying to use civilians as human shields.

Meanwhile, the social media rhetoric between leaders has gone to ’11’…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Why Israel Blows Up Media Offices & Targets Journalists

May 22, 2021

Why Israel Blows Up Media Offices & Targets Journalists

Rather than reduce the cruelty, the Israeli government keeps trying to reduce accurate news coverage, writes Norman Solomon.

Palestinian solidarity demonstration in New York City on May 11. (Andrew Ratto, CC BY 2.0, Wikimedia Commons)

Israel’s missile attack on media offices in Gaza City last weekend was successful. A gratifying response came quickly from the head of The Associated Press, which had a bureau in the building for 15 years: “The world will know less about what is happening in Gaza because of what happened today.”

For people who care about truth, that’s outrageous. For the Israeli government, that’s terrific.

The AP president, Gary Pruitt, said “we are shocked and horrified that the Israeli military would target and destroy the building housing AP’s bureau and other news organizations in Gaza.”

There’s ample reason to be horrified. But not shocked.

Israel’s military began threatening and targeting journalists several decades ago, in tandem with its longstanding cruel treatment of Palestinians. Rather than reduce the cruelty, the Israeli government keeps trying to reduce accurate news coverage.

The approach is a mix of deception and brutality. Blow up the cameras so the world won’t see as many pictures of the atrocities.

Of course, there’s no need to interfere with journalists documenting the also awful — while relatively few — deaths of Israelis due to rockets fired by Hamas. In recent days the Israeli government has spotlighted such visuals, some of them grimly authentic, others fake.

The suffering in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is tragically real on both sides, while vastly asymmetrical. During the last 10 days, as reported by the BBC, 219 people have been killed in Gaza. In Israel, the number was 10. In Gaza, at least 63 of the dead were children. In Israel, two.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Literally Armageddon”: 53 Killed In Gaza & 5 Israelis Dead As UN Warns “Full-Scale War” Imminent

May 12, 2021

“Literally Armageddon”: 53 Killed In Gaza & 5 Israelis Dead As UN Warns “Full-Scale War” Imminent

After overnight sustained rocket fire from Gaza and at the same time Israeli airstrikes pounding the strip, the combined death toll reached to at least 50, with hundreds more injured, into Wednesday. International reports are citing over 50 Palestinians killed in Gaza alone, many among these children.

Middle East Eye cites the following numbers by late into the afternoon (local time): “At least 53 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel began its bombing campaign in the besieged territory on Sunday morning.”

“That number, accurate as of Wednesday afternoon, includes 14 children and three women, with a further 320 people wounded with injuries of varying degrees of severity, according to Gaza’s health ministry.”

And on the Israeli side, local reports cite that “three Israeli women were killed in rocket attacks, with more than 50 injured, including two women in serious condition: an 81-year-old as well as a 30-year-old who was hit by shrapnel in her upper body.”

This takes the death toll on the Israeli side to five since the start of fighting early this week.

*Overnight airstrikes on Gaza, via Middle East Eye*

The IDF announced that 16 among the Gaza dead were militants – some of them “senior commanders” – while also counting “hundreds” of Hamas and Islamic Jihad rockets fired into Israel, many reaching deep into central Israel and scoring direct hits on heavily populated residential areas.

Israeli media is reporting that multiple members of Hamas’ “General Staff” were eliminated in airstrikes Wednesday:

The dead men were identified as Bassem Issa, the head of the Gaza City brigade since 2017 and head of the group’s cyber network and missile improvement project Jamaa Tahla. According to the Shin Bet, Tahla was the right-hand man of Muhammad Deif and the central leader of the group’s efforts to improve its military capabilities.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Netanyahu: Israel Might Launch Full-Scale Gaza War “Before The Elections”

September 13, 2019

Netanyahu: Israel Might Launch Full-Scale Gaza War “Before The Elections”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears ready to risk launching a major Middle East war rather than see his chances of re-election to a record fifth term dwindle.

Desperately trying to shore up more votes ahead of Tuesday’s election by trying to “out-hawk” his opponents in the center-right Blue and White Party, he said Thursday Israel will probably launch a full-scale war on Gaza “before the elections”.

In his comments, which came just after returning from Sochi, Russia where he met with President Vladimir Putin, Netanyahu asserted, “An operation in Gaza could happen at any moment, including four days before the elections.” He immediately followed with the dubious assertion, “The date of the elections does not factor [into a decision to go to war].”

And the day before he said similarly during an Israeli radio interview that Israel will be left with no choice but to “topple the Hamas regime” should such a military campaign begin.

As part of a media blitz five days before the elections, he said, “There probably won’t be a choice but to topple the Hamas regime. Hamas doesn’t exert its sovereignty in the Strip and doesn’t prevent attacks.”

However, so far it doesn’t appear his hawkish rhetoric is substantially moving the polls — unlike past successful appeals to far-right and nationalist sectors.

Starting Tuesday Hamas militants and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) engaged in a small scale exchange of fire after multiple rockets were launched from Gaza, which briefly interrupted a Netanyahu campaign speech in the southern city of Ashdod, where he was rushed off the stage amid inbound rocket siren warnings.

Why The Powerful Always Paint Their Side As The Victims

May 8, 2019

Why The Powerful Always Paint Their Side As The Victims

On Friday Israel began a two-day attack on Gaza which as of this writing has left a total of 27 Palestinians dead, including a pregnant woman and a baby.

Moon of Alabama documents how the mass media have been consistently depicting this attack as a “response” to a Hamas rocket attack, suggesting that Hamas were the initial aggressors and Israel merely responded in self-defense, yet Hamas is very open about the fact that the rocket attack was done in retaliation for two Palestinian civilians who were killed by Israeli snipers. MoA cites an excerpt from a 2011 Louis Allday blog on Israel’s extensive history of painting all of its aggressions as acts of self-defense:

If one consults only mainstream media for information on the conflict in Palestine, what is immediately striking is that Israel appears to be in a permanent state of “retaliation” — a phrase which immediately confers at least a modicum of legitimacy or justification upon the act to which it refers. Israel is never presented as the aggressor and however much its actions are condemned — which they are by some mainstream sources — they are invariably portrayed as a reaction to some form of provocation. Conversely, missiles launched from the Gaza Strip or southern Lebanon are habitually portrayed as “attacks” — never “retaliations,” even if Israel has launched a devastating missile strike immediately prior to the event — as so often is the case.

The public is subliminally conditioned to understand that Israel is a permanent victim that on occasion is forced to lash out in response to the ostensibly irrational and unruly aggression of illegitimate non-state actors that encircle it.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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