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The Doomsday Clock, set by the US-based magazine Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, has been moved to 90 seconds to midnight…

That’s the closest ever to total nuclear doom, the global catastrophe.

The Clock had been set at 100 seconds since 2020. The Bulletin’s Science and Security Board and a group of sponsors – which includes 10 Nobel laureates – have focused on “Russia’s war on Ukraine” (their terminology) as the main reason.

Yet they did not bother to explain non-stop American rhetoric (the US is the only nation that adopts “first strike” in a nuclear confrontation) and the fact that this is a US proxy war against Russia with Ukraine used as cannon fodder.

The Bulletin also attributes malignant designs to China, Iran and North Korea, while mentioning, only in passing, that “the last remaining nuclear weapons treaty between Russia and the United States, New START, stands in jeopardy”.

“Unless the two parties resume negotiations and find a basis for further reductions, the treaty will expire in February 2026.”

As it stands, the prospects of a US-Russia negotiation on New START are less than zero.

Now cue to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov making it very clear that war against Russia is not hybrid anymore, it’s “almost” real.

“Almost” in fact means “90 seconds.”

So why is this all happening?

The Mother of All Intel Failures

Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke has concisely explained how Russian resilience – much in the spirit of Iranian resilience past four decades – completely smashed the assumptions of Anglo-American intelligence.

Talk about the Mother of All Intel Failures – in fact even more astonishing than the non-existent Iraqi WMDs (in the run-up to Shock and Awe in 2003, anyone with a brain knew Baghdad had discontinued its weapons program already in the 1990s.)

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Europe’s Energy Crisis Leaves Almost All Of Pakistan Without Power

January 27, 2023

Europe’s Energy Crisis Leaves Almost All Of Pakistan Without Power

Pakistan faced an almost nationwide power outage on Monday.
A significant energy shortage is one of the main drivers of the nation’s current economic crisis.
The energy crisis in Europe has made Pakistan vulnerable to high fuel prices.

The long-awaited winter energy crisis has finally hit…but it wasn’t in Europe after all. On Monday, almost the entirety of Pakistan was left without power when a misguided energy saving strategy by the government backfired. Runaway inflation, a severely weakened currency, and rapidly emptying foreign exchange reserves have left Pakistan on the brink of economic collapse. The country of 230 million people is plagued by overdue energy payments, and was seeking to cut costs by lowering energy use when the plan went off the rails, leaving people across the country without power or water for more than 12 hours.

Pakistani officials had planned to save on energy costs by turning off electricity across the country overnight. Nighttime has the lowest usage hours for energy in Pakistan, where winters are relatively mild. The problem came when technicians tried to reboot the electric system in the morning, and found out that the infrastructure wasn’t capable of booting up the entire nation’s energy grid all at once. Major cities, including the capital city of Islamabad, as well as smaller cities and towns across the country were left in the dark for 15 hours on Monday, lasting into the night.

“As an economic measure, we temporarily shut down our power generation systems” Sunday night, Energy Minister Khurram Dastgir told local media. He went on to explain that when engineers tried to turn the systems back on, a “fluctuation in voltage” occurred, which “forced engineers to shut down the power grid” stations altogether.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Germany Still Years Away From Replacing Russian NatGas, Official Admits To “Unspoken Strategy To Pay Crazy Prices”

January 26, 2023

Germany Still Years Away From Replacing Russian NatGas, Official Admits To “Unspoken Strategy To Pay Crazy Prices”

Some European politicians and economists are breathing a sigh of relief after mild temperatures, increasing liquefied natural gas shipments, and above-average natural gas stockpiles have so far averted a worsening energy crisis this winter. Other politicians believe the energy crunch won’t be over for many years.

“Gas storage is up and gas prices are down. Inflation is falling and uncertainty is declining,” Deutsche Bank AG wrote in a note this week, adding, “We can afford to be more optimistic.”

As of late, Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, has seen an improvement in business outlook as recession fears recede, according to data from the Ifo Institute, a Munich-based economic researcher.

Ifo President Clemens Fuest told Bloomberg TV:

“The most important risk for the German economy was a gas-rationing scenario … and that risk is off the table now.”

There’s a lot to be happy about in Europe: Dutch front-month NatGas, the continent’s benchmark, slid as much as 5% to 55 euros a megawatt-hour today, the lowest level since late 2021. Prices have collapsed by more than 83% since peaking at 311 euros a megawatt-hour last August.

However, the optimism could be short-lived because Germany is years from entirely substituting Russian NatGas flows with LNG shipments.

Last week, Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Bloomberg that German learned a hard lesson in its addiction for cheap Russian NatGas. He said the country is now rejiggering supply chains that will increase capacity for LNG imports at major ports.

A new report via the country’s Economy Ministry shows Germany will install 56 billion cubic meters of domestic LNG import capacity by 2026. By 2030, capacities will increase to 76.5 billion cubic meters or about 80% of total German NatGas consumption in 2021.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

German Foreign Minister Just Said The Quiet Part Out Loud On Ukraine

January 25, 2023

German Foreign Minister Just Said The Quiet Part Out Loud On Ukraine

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock bluntly stated in fresh remarks that Western allies are fighting a war against Russia. The remarks came during a debate at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) on Tuesday amid discussions over sending Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

While Baerbock’s words were largely ignored in mainstream media, a number of pundits on social media noted with alarm that the German foreign minister just essentially declared war on Russia.

Ironically other German officials have long sought to emphasize their country is not a party to the conflict, fearing uncontrollable escalation.

Contradicting this official stance, Baerbock said the quiet part out loud, and introduced the comments with: “And therefore I’ve said already in the last days – yes, we have to do more to defend Ukraine. Yes, we have to do more also on tanks.”

And that’s when she asserted: “But the most important and the crucial part is that we do it together and that we do not do the blame game in Europe, because we are fighting a war against Russia and not against each other.”

Interestingly, both Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his former defense minister who recently resigned, Christine Lambrecht, have been seen as weak on arming Ukraine – repeatedly declaring an unwillingness to get pulled deeper into the proxy war aspect to the conflict. But now it seems the more hawkish Baerbock is willing to at this point be much more open with the reality of what’s happening.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova seized on the comments, saying this is yet more proof that the Western allies were planning a war on Russia all along…

“If we add this to Merkel’s revelations that they were strengthening Ukraine and did not count on the Minsk agreements, then we are talking about a war against Russia that was planned in advance. Don’t say later that we didn’t warn you,” Zakharova said.

One thing is for sure, things are moving fast…

ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead – Germany’s Leopard Tank Dilemma & Warnings Of “Global Catastrophe”

January 23, 2023

ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead – Germany’s Leopard Tank Dilemma & Warnings Of “Global Catastrophe”

A weekly round-up of geopolitical flashpoint and energy news we’re keeping our eyes on, and trends impacting global markets, which will later be accessible for Premium members and above…

The start of this week saw no less than four top level Russian officials warn of impending “global catastrophe” if the West keeps ramping up heavier arms to Ukraine, now as the decision of Germany to sign off on sending its Leopard II tanks looms.

State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the lower house of Russia’s parliament, asserted in fresh remarks that NATO providing more weapons to Ukraine risks “global tragedy that would destroy” Western countries. “Supplies of offensive weapons to the Kyiv regime would lead to a global catastrophe,” Volodin said. “If Washington and NATO supply weapons that would be used for striking peaceful cities and making attempts to seize our territory as they threaten to do, it would trigger a retaliation with more powerful weapons.”

And one can read further ultra dire warnings from Moscow’s point of view… specifically from Lavrov, Peskov, and Medvedev… all statements issued on Monday. The red line is being laid out quite brightly.

As for whether these escalatory scenarios will come to pass, with Russia and the West continuing to slide toward direct military confrontation, the question of whether or not Germany resists the growing pressure from allies for it to lead the way on sending its Leopard 2 main battle tanks looms. Can Berlin resist? Will Kremlin warnings be heeded by Berlin? And for how long? Despite a growing political rift both within the Scholz government among NATO allies more broadly, it’s not looking good. Germany has already bowed to pressure early in the conflict, given it walked away from its historic neutrality. The outcome to the tank question is likely to be decided by month’s end.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

French And German Power Prices Soar As Cold Sweeps Europe

January 17, 2023

French And German Power Prices Soar As Cold Sweeps Europe

After a mild start to the year, cold weather sweeping across western Germany, France, and the UK led to a surge in electricity prices on Tuesday.

French day-ahead power prices jumped to 135 euros a megawatt-hour, a 42% increase versus the rolling two-week average. The cause of the price spike is a surge in heating demand and delays in restarting nuclear plants.

Day-ahead prices in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, increased as much as 16% Tuesday.

“Cold is expected to grip areas from the mid-continent to west, including in western Germany, France and the UK where average departures from normal range anywhere between 2-6 degrees Celsius below normal,” Matthew Dross, a meteorologist at Maxar Technologies, told Bloomberg.

Dross said the cold spell “will increase heating demand for those regions to above normal levels.”

Despite colder weather and increasing heating demand, Dutch front-month natural gas futures, Europe’s benchmark, slid as much as 7.3% after rising 4.6%. Prices have clawed back some losses after tagging 16-month lows.

Mild temperatures are expected to return next week, denting demand once more. Morgan Stanley recently wrote that Europe’s NatGas consumption in the year to October could be as low as 16% below the five-year average.

“Even if it makes gas-fired power plants increasingly competitive with coal-fired power plants, it does not lead to an increase in gas demand for power generation because” other cheaper power generation sources will be used first, Engie SA’s EnergyScan wrote in a note.

* * *

Record warmth spread across Europe in the first half of January. Temperatures in the energy-stricken continent felt more like spring as several metropolitan areas recorded the warmest temperatures on record. Now a pattern shift is underway as parts of northwest Europe brace for a cold snap starting Monday.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The Lost Forest Gardens of Europe

January 15, 2023

The Lost Forest Gardens of Europe

europe hazelnut orchard mossy shade forest garden filbert farm

Contents

People of the Hazel: Europe’s indigenous cultures return after the glaciers retreat, bringing their most cherished tree with them
The Continent-Wide Orchard: Mesolithic people create Europe’s post-glacial ecosystems as vast forest gardens
A Changing Climate: millennia of drastic fluctuations in the climate lead to the creation and spread of grain-based agriculture
Strength in Diversity: early farmers innovate resilient crop mixes and companion planting to guard against climate change
Hybrid Cultures: Europe’s new creolized societies mix the best of hunter-gatherer and farmer cultures, practices, livestock, and crops to create entirely new ways to grow food
The Domesticated Forest Garden: farmers in the Mediterranean adapt their region’s hunter-gatherer forest gardens into diverse multi-story farms, creating resilient agricultural forests of domesticated crops that exist to this day
Towards a New Culture: imperialist monoculture farming systems take precedence in Europe, but the indigenous forest garden methods survive in the margins. These ancient methods are nearly forgotten, but they can provide a framework for rethinking the way we live and grow food in a changing climate.

Introduction

In the hills above the Po river in northern Italy, there are a handful of farms that look almost the same today as they would have three thousand years ago.

There are rows of short pruned trees, with fruit-laden grape vines festooned between them. The trees are common natives in the area that produce fruit, firewood, basketmaking materials, and fodder for farm animals. The grapes are ancient cultivars that have been grown here for millennia. Between these rows of grapes and trees are diverse plots of cereals, hayfields, vegetables, and herbs. In a single field, one can find all of the staples needed to live and support the farmstead, and more to sell at a high premium…

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Europe Is Being Deindustrialized With a Purpose

January 13, 2023

Europe Is Being Deindustrialized With a Purpose

The sun is shining, birds are singing and natural gas demand destruction goes on unabated in the EU. One might ask here: why have TTF gas prices fallen below 70 Eur/MWh (1) actually to even lower levels than in Asia? Mainstream media tries to spin the story that this is largely due to mild weather, energy saving and a rise in US LNG deliveries — and this is where thinking usually stops. According to Irina Slav writing for oilprice.com though:

The first red flags appeared last year: much of the gas consumption decline in Germany that was praised by politicians actually came from demand destruction among industrial users because of prohibitive prices. In other words, gas demand in much of Europe last year fell because it was destroyed and not so much because everyone suddenly became conscientious with their gas use. But demand destruction is not good for the economy. It means shutdowns of factories and layoffs.

In other words: Europe is deindustrializing as expected, and simply shed 20% of it’s gas consumption as a result. Mission accomplished.

Low demand begets low prices. Should the price of Natural Gas fall further still though, it would quickly deter LNG ships to pursue more lucrative business opportunities — i.e.: deliver their gas to Asia instead, where they can sell it for a higher price. That would (will?) leave the EU with even less gas supply. Norwegians alone will surly not able to fill in the gap, especially so that their ‘production’ is actually on a high plateau and about to peak soon (then decline).

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Colder Weather Might Return To Northwest Europe Next Week

January 12, 2023

Colder Weather Might Return To Northwest Europe Next Week

European natural gas prices have plunged to pre-Ukraine invasion levels on mild winter. Heating demand across the EU has declined, allowing fuel storage tanks to continue injections and remain above seasonal levels. This bodes well for the energy-stricken continent, but new weather forecasts suggest a late-month return to winter.

The benchmark Dutch TTF futures contract for February was down to 65.80 euros a megawatt-hour or more than 6% on the session. On the eve of Russia’s invasion last February, the contract sold for about 88 euros.

Several factors have allowed the EU to skirt around an energy crisis, including alternatives to Russian NatGas, such as increased imports of US LNG, widespread conservation efforts for residential and business customers, and a very mild winter.

NatGas stockpiles across the continent are well above a 12-year mean for this time of the year. The percentage of NatGas full has yet to fall from around 83% since Christmas.

Meanwhile, new weather models are pointing to a possible flip back to colder temperatures next week for parts of Europe. Natgas traders will be focused on the severity of the cold and the impacts on heating demand.

The return of wintry conditions follows a record-warm start to the year, which provided relief from an energy crunch that has hammered Europe for months. The mild weather curbed demand for heating, allowing some countries to top up natural gas stockpiles at a time when they’d usually be tapping supplies.

Most of Britain will see below-average temperatures by the end of next week, with snow possible in northern areas, according to the country’s Met Office. –Bloomberg

A few models show the possible cold snap for parts of the EU next week.

Colder temperatures could be arriving in North West EU in days.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

World Bank Warns Global Economy “Perilously Close To Falling Into Recession”

January 10, 2023

World Bank Warns Global Economy “Perilously Close To Falling Into Recession”

Six months ago, The World Bank slashed its global growth outlook for 2022 and 2023 to +2.9% and +3.0% respectively blaming “the war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions, and the risk of stagflation” for hammering growth.

Today, in its latest report on global economic prospects, The World Bank has slashed its growth forecast for 2023 by almost a half to just +1.7%, led by weaker growth in all the world’s top economies — the United States, Europe and China.

“Global growth has slowed to the extent that the global economy is perilously close to falling into recession,” the World Bank said.

That would mark the third-weakest pace of global growth in nearly three decades, overshadowed only by the 2009 and 2020 downturns.

The World Bank called on global central banks to remain alert to the risk that aggressively tightening monetary policy to fight inflation could spill across borders. The new report called for discussions between central bankers to “help mitigate risks associated with financial stability and avoid an excessive global economic slowdown in the pursuit of inflation objectives.”

“Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already devastating reversals in education, health, poverty, and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change,” said David Malpass, president of the World Bank.

For now, those central bankers are facing their nemesis… Stagflation…

Though the United States might avoid a recession this year – the World Bank predicts the U.S. economy will eke out growth of 0.5% – global weakness will likely pose another headwind for America’s businesses and consumers, on top of high prices and more expensive borrowing rates.

The United States also remains vulnerable to further supply chain disruptions if COVID keeps surging or the war in Ukraine worsens.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

In 2022, the world as we knew it ended. Decades of conflict lie ahead

January 8, 2023

In 2022, the world as we knew it ended. Decades of conflict lie ahead

The ‘end of history’ has concluded and the world has returned to conflicts between ‘great powers’. Let’s hope it doesn’t turn nuclear By Ivan Timofeev, Valdai Club Programme Director & one of Russia’s leading foreign policy experts.© Getty Images / erhui1979

In 1989, the ‘short 20th century’ concluded with the ‘end of history’ – the victory of the Western capitalist world over the Soviet socialist project. At that time, there was not a single country, or community, left in the world which offered a realistic alternative to the US-led view of the organization of the economy, society, and the political system.

The Soviet bloc dissolved itself. A large part of it quickly integrated into NATO and the European Union. Other major world players had begun to integrate organically into the Western-centered world system long before the end of the Cold War. China retained a high level of sovereignty in terms of its domestic order, but quickly moved into a capitalist economy, actively trading with the US, EU, and the rest of the world.

Beijing, meanwhile, shied away from promoting the socialist project abroad. India had avoided claiming global projects of its own, although it has, to this day, also maintained a high level of identity in its political system and has so far shied away from joining blocs and alliances. Other major players also remained within the rules of the ‘liberal world order’ game, avoiding attempts to challenge it.

Individual rebels, such as Iran and North Korea, did not pose much of a threat, although they raised concerns with their stubborn resistance, persistent promotion of nuclear programs, successful adaptation to sanctions, and for the most part, any potential military attack was ruled out because of its high cost. For a brief period, it seemed that the global challenge might come from radical Islamism. But it could not shake the existing order either.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Austrian Defense Minister Warns Europeans Are Unprepared For Days-Long Blackouts

December 30, 2022

Austrian Defense Minister Warns Europeans Are Unprepared For Days-Long Blackouts

Leaving one third of citizens unable to “supply themselves.”

SOPA Images via Getty Images

The Austrian defense minister has warned that Europeans could face blackouts that go on for days, leaving one–third of citizens unable to “supply themselves.”

Klaudia Tanner made the comments during an interview with German news outlet Die Welt.

“The question is not whether it (the blackout) will come, but when it will come,” said Tanner, blaming the war in Ukraine.

“For Putin, hacking attacks on Western power supplies are a tool of hybrid warfare. We must not pretend that this is just a theory. We must be prepared for blackouts in Austria and Europe,” she added.

Austrian armed forces are set to establish 100 self-sufficient barracks by 2025 that are capable of sustaining themselves for a minimum of two weeks if energy supplies are seriously disrupted.

Tanner spoke to how unprepared Europeans were for crippling elongated blackouts by warning, “one-third of citizens would not be able to supply themselves on the fourth day of a blackout at the latest.”

While Vladimir Putin remains the convenient scapegoat, others have pointed to Europe’s overdependence on ‘green energy’ and its shutting down of traditional coal-fired and nuclear plants as one of the primary reasons for increasing the risk of blackouts.

In Germany for example, the country only has three remaining operational nuclear power plants, with MPs even having to vote to extend their life span into 2023 after previous plans to shut them down.

As we previously highlighted, Germans buying up electric heaters in anticipation of the gas supply being cut off is threatening to cause huge spikes in demand that could lead to widespread blackouts.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Just Getting Started

December 23, 2022

Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Just Getting Started

While Europe managed to fill its gas storage ahead of winter this year, it will have to import huge amounts of LNG in a competitive market to survive next winter.
The next 12 to 24 months will be critical in establishing whether Europe can stave off a long-term energy crisis.
According to the IEA, if Russian gas supply drops to zero and Chinese LNG demand hits 2021 levels, the EU could have a supply-demand gap of 27 billion cubic meters in 2023.

Despite successfully filling its gas storage ahead of winter this year, Europe’s energy crisis is far from over. The situation for Europe could, in fact, be worse next winter when Russian pipeline gas supply will be down to a trickle, at best.

European households and businesses have already seen a rise in total energy costs by $1.06 trillion (1 trillion euros), according to estimates by European economic think-tank Bruegel published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to Bruegel’s analysts, if governments in Europe do nothing except offer financial support, and if they cover the price increases, this sum would represent a massive 6% of the annual GDP of the EU.

“Massive government support could delay adjustment to a new price equilibrium and create the need for even more support,” Bruegel’s experts say.

Instead, the EU needs a “grand bargain” to encourage savings and increase supply at the same time.

The next 12 to 24 months will determine whether Europe will be able to cope with the energy crisis without having to resort to mandatory rationing or without losing too much industry competitiveness.

Europe’s energy systems were already put to the first real test this month amid an Arctic blast that swept through most of northwestern Europe, bringing freezing temperatures, snow in the UK, and depressing wind speeds in Germany.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

The End of Europe: The Conclusion of a Long Historical Cycle.

December 15, 2022

The End of Europe: The Conclusion of a Long Historical Cycle.

The failure of the European Union may have started with the choice of the flag. Not that state flags are supposed to be works of art, but at least they can be inspiring. But this flag is completely flat, unoriginal, and depressing. It looks mostly like a blue cheese pizza gone bad. And that’s just one of the many things gone bad with the European Union. (attempts to make it more appealing failed utterly). It is the conclusion of a thousand-year cycle that’s coming to an end. It was probably unavoidable, but that doesn’t make it less painful.

Europe has a long history that goes back to when the ice sheets retreated at the end of the last ice age, some 10,000 years ago. At that time, our remote ancestors moved into a pristine land, cultivated it, built villages, roads, and cities. They traveled, migrated, fought each other, created cultures, built temples, fortresses, and palaces. On the Southern coast of Europe, a lively network of commercial exchanges emerged, made possible by maritime transportation over the Mediterranean Sea. Out of this network, the Greek civilization was born, and then the Roman Empire appeared around the end of the first millennium BCE. It included most of Western Europe. (image from ESA)

As all empires do, the Roman Empire went through its cycle of glory and decline. In the 5th century AD, as Europe entered the Middle Ages, the Empire had disappeared except as a memory of past greatness. In the following centuries, the population of Western Europe declined to a historical minimum, maybe less than 20 million people. Europe became a land of thick forests, portentous ruins, small villages, and petty warlords fighting each other. No one could have imagined that, centuries later, Europeans would become the dominators of the world.

…click on the above link to read the rest…

First Big Freeze Puts “Heavy Strain” On European Power Grids

December 13, 2022

First Big Freeze Puts “Heavy Strain” On European Power Grids

Europe’s cold blast is due to a weak, polar vortex split in the stratosphere, which allowed high pressure to build across Greenland last week. As a result, Arctic air poured over the energy-stricken continent, sending natural gas and power prices higher.

The unseasonably cold weather will continue through this week. North West and Central Europe are recording average temperatures well below normal, boosting residential and commercial heating demand.

In the North West region, temperatures are forecasted to average around 30 degrees Fahrenheit this week, about 10 degrees less than the 30-year mean.

A similar setup is for Central Europe.

The arrival of the cold snap has already sent UK electricity prices to record highs.

Bloomberg’s energy crisis index shows gas storage percentages full for top European countries have already flipped from injections to drawing season. Power prices in France, Germany, Italy, and the UK are elevated as the cost of producing electricity is surging.

Here’s a better view of the gas storage situation. Even though significant progress was made to refill storage in an unusually warm autumn, cold snaps will draw down supplies much quicker as supply gaps persist due to Russian flows to the continent severed at some key entry points.

“The first winter blast is placing a heavy strain on European power grids, after a mild autumn allowed utilities to replenish depleted natural gas reserves. The energy crunch has forced some countries to return to coal, with the UK’s National Grid asking two coal-fired units from its winter reserve to run on Monday,” Bloomberg reported.

In a separate report, Bloomberg outlined three reasons why Europe’s addiction to NatGas persists:

First, nuclear outages in France have resulted in the loss of a sizable chunk of electricity generation. .

…click on the above link to read the rest…

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