Home » Posts tagged 'imf'

Tag Archives: imf

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Catacylsm
Click on image to purchase

Post categories

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Cataclysm
Click on image to purchase

NEW UNCOVERED INFORMATION: Why Central Banks Were Forced To Rig The Gold Market

NEW UNCOVERED INFORMATION: Why Central Banks Were Forced To Rig The Gold Market

According to newly uncovered information in the gold market, it provides additional evidence of why the Fed, Central Banks and the IMF were forced to RIG the gold market.  Not only was the dropping of the Gold-Dollar peg going to release a great deal of pressure on the manipulated gold price, but forecasts of a massive increase in gold demand was going to totally overwhelm supply.

Thus, this new information provides clear evidence that the gold market was being assaulted on “two fronts.”  Not only was the gold market suffering from a decades of price suppression schemes via the Fed and Central Banks, but also that surging gold demand in the jewelry and industrial sectors was going to lead to severe shortages in the gold market.

Which means, the gold market was experiencing a great deal more stress than complications stemming from the debasement of the U.S. Dollar due to massive money printing.  Actually, looking at this new information, I had no idea of the amount of Fed, Central Bank and IMF gold market intervention until I put all the pieces together.

Now, when I say “new information”, it pertains to new information and data that I dug up from older official documents.  While most of the folks in the precious metals community realize that the Fed and Central Banks have sold gold into the market to depress the price, this new evidence puts the gold market it in an entirely DIFFERENT LIGHT. 

Furthermore, additional data points to a “Gold Supply & Demand” situation that would have gone completely out of control, if the Fed, Central Banks and IMF did not step in.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Strange That The Same Point In Time For The Economic Crisis Keeps Coming Up

Strange That The Same Point In Time For The Economic Crisis Keeps Coming Up

This video was produced by X22 Report

Netherlands is making a move to leave the EU. Theresa May is worried that a Scottish Referendum vote will happen at the same time as the Article 50 vote. Former IMF chief sentenced to jail in Spain. The EU says no bail-ins at this time because it would hurt the creditors. Maine drops 9,000 from Food Stamp roll says people need to look for jobs. Pending home sales tumble. Durable goods decline. David Stockman says it will begin on March 15 and the economy will really go down hill in the summer and the fall will be a disaster.

Tsipras Warns IMF, Schauble To “Stop Playing With Fire” Over Greek Debt

Tsipras Warns IMF, Schauble To “Stop Playing With Fire” Over Greek Debt

One day after Greek 2Y bond yields tumbled following press reports that for the first time in the latest Greek mini-crisis, the IMF and Eurozone creditors finally agreed on a “common stance” regarding what the Greek fiscal surplus and debt profile would look like, despite talks between Greece and its creditors ending in Brussels with no breakthrough, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras on Saturday warned the IMF and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble to “stop playing with fire” in handling his country’s debt.

Nonetheless, striking a positive tone, Tsipras opened a meeting of his Syriza party by saying he was confident a solution would be found, and urged a change of course from the IMF. “We expect as soon as possible that the IMF revise its forecast so that discussions can continue at the technical level”, AFP reported, suggesting that contrary to initial reports, the bid-ask between the Troika and Greece still remains irreconcilable .

Tsipras also attacked Greek nemesis Wolfgang Schauble – who earlier in the week ruled out a Greek debt cut, saying “for that Greece would have to exit the currency area”- and called for German Chancellor Angela Merkel to “encourage her finance minister to end his permanent aggressiveness” towards Greece.

As documented before, ongoing feuding with the IMF has raised fears of a new debt crisis. Greece, whose economic collapse is now worse than the US Great Depression – remains embroiled in a row with its eurozone paymasters and the IMF over debt relief and budget targets that has rattled markets and revived talk of its place in the euro. 

A silver lining emerged on Friday, when Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said progress had been made in the Brussels talks with Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos and other EU and IMF officials. But he provided few details.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why energy prices are ultimately headed lower; what the IMF missed

Why energy prices are ultimately headed lower; what the IMF missed

  • Too much growth in debt, with China particularly mentioned as a problem
  • World economic growth seems to have slowed on a long-term basis
  • Central bank intervention required to produce artificially low interest rates, to produce even this low growth
  • Global international trade is no longer growing rapidly
  • Economic stagnation could lead to protectionist calls

These issues are very much related to issues that I have been writing about:

  • It takes energy to make goods and services.
  • It takes an increasing amount of energy consumption to create a growing amount of goods and services–in other words, growing GDP.
  • This energy must be inexpensive, if it is to operate in the historical way: the economy produces good productivity growth; this productivity growth translates to wage growth; and debt levels can stay within reasonable bounds as growth occurs.
  • We can’t keep producing cheap energy because what “runs out” is cheap-to-extract energy. We extract this cheap-to-extract energy first, forcing us to move on to expensive-to-extract energy.
  • Eventually, we run into the problem of energy prices falling below the cost of production because of affordability issues. The wages of non-elite workers don’t keep up with the rising cost of extraction.
  • Governments can try to cover up the problem with more debt at ever-lower interest rates, but eventually this doesn’t work either.
  • Instead of producing higher commodity prices, the system tends to produce asset bubbles.
  • Eventually, the system must collapse due to growing inefficiencies of the system. The result is likely to look much like a “Minsky Moment,” with a collapse in asset prices.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The IMF and All The Other Losers


Andre Kertesz Bumper cars at amusement park in Neuilly-sur-Seine, near Paris 1930
I read a lot, been doing it for years, about finance and affiliated topics (a wide horizon of them), which means I’ve inevitably seen a wholesale lot of nonsense fly by. But for some reason, and I think I know why, Q3 2016 has been gunning for a top -or bottom- seat in that regard, and Q4 is looking to do it one better/worse.

Apart from the fast increasingly brainless political ‘discussions’ that don’t deserve the name, in the US and UK and beyond, there are the transnational organizations, NATO, IMF, EU and all those things, all suffocating in their own hubris, things I’ve dealt with before in for instance Globalization Is Dead, But The Idea Is Not and Why There is Trump. But none of it still seems to have trickled through anywhere that I can see.

The end of growth exposes the stupidity and ignorance of all but (and even that’s a maybe) a precious few (of our) ‘leaders’. There is no other way this could have run, because an era of growth simply selects for different people to float to the top of the pond than a period of contraction does. Can we agree on that?

‘Growth leaders’ only have to seduce voters into believing that they can keep growth going, and create more of it (though in reality they have no control over it at all). Anyone can do that. So ‘anyone’ who’s sufficiently hooked on power games will apply.

‘Contraction leaders’ have a much harder time; they must convince voters that they can minimize the ‘suffering of the herd’. Which is invariably a herd that no-one wants to belong to. A tough sell.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Someone Is Lying

Someone Is Lying

Observant readers may recall the name Vitas Vasiliauskas from our May story in which we quoted the ECB governing council member as defining not only himself, but his central banking peers, as “magic people.” As the portly Lithuanian banker said in a Bloomberg interview then, “markets say the ECB is done, their box is empty, but we are magic people. Each time we take something and give to the markets — a rabbit out of the hat.” What was more disturbing is that he was dead serious when he said it, which is important, because it is finally obvious that central bankers are neither gods, nor magicians, nor even doing “god’s work on earth”, but plain and simple psychopaths.

They could also be pathological liars, as the WSJ revealed today when it published an interview with Vasiliauskas, in which among other things, covered the topic of Deutsche Bank. To wit:

Struggling German lender Deutsche Bank won’t drive the eurozone economy into the ground, a member of the European Central Bank’s governing council said Thursday, adding a fresh dose of calm into a case that has raised concerns about the continent’s ability to confront the struggles of Germany’s largest lender.

“I don’t think that problems related with one of the banks somehow can influence overall financial stability,” said Vitas Vasiliauskas, the head of Lithuania’s central bank, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. The small Baltic state has used the euro since last year and therefore has a voice on the 25-member governing council that sets monetary policy in the currency bloc. The ECB also serves as supervisor of the eurozone’s largest banks. “I don’t think that we face something systemic,” he said on the sidelines of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund.

And just in case the punchline is somehow missed, here it is timestamped for posterity.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Doomed to Failure

We’ve been waiting for the U.S. economy to reach escape velocity for the last six years.  What we mean is we’ve been waiting for the economy to finally become self-stimulating and no longer require monetary or fiscal stimulus to keep it from stalling out.  Unfortunately, this may not be possible the way things are going.

fischersAs Milton Jones once revealed: “A month before he died, my grandfather covered his back in lard. After that, he went downhill quickly” (his other grandfather drowned in a bowl of cheerios). A similar fate may await the larded up US economy.

In short, the U.S. economy may never reach “escape velocity” unless it is first allowed to crash.  It has been too larded up and larded over with debt for any real sustainable growth to take root.  More evidence, to this effect, was revealed this week.

For example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates the U.S. economy will expand by just 1.6 percent this year.  That’s about one percent less than last year’s estimated growth.  In other words, the rate of economic growth in the United States isn’t increasing; rather, it’s decreasing.

According to the IMF, “the slower-than-expected activity comes out of the ongoing oil industry slump, depressed business investment and a persistent surplus in business inventories.”  Could this be the twilight of the weakest economic recovery in the post-World War II era?  Only time will tell, for sure.

But anyone with an ear to the ground and a nose to the grindstone knows the answer to that question.  Business ain’t booming.  Moreover, it has become near impossible for corporations to grow their earnings.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Stanley Fischer’s Novel Idea: “We’d Be Better Off With A Price For Using Money”

Stanley Fischer’s Novel Idea: “We’d Be Better Off With A Price For Using Money”

The end game of central bank lunacy is surely near. Even the Fed heads appear to be mumbling bits and pieces of truth in public.

Former Philly Fed President Charles Plosser, for example, told Bloomberg TV this morning that central bankers “wring their hands all the time,” are very “concerned about credibility,” and are “pretty good at conjuring up reasons not to act.”

Having screwed up his mutinous courage, he then let loose with words that haven’t been heard from a central banker in decades, if ever:

The Fed “shouldn’t be afraid a recession might come,” he exclaimed, “there’s a real problem here”. 

Then again, Plosser recently retired and perhaps it wasn’t all that voluntary. By contrast, Stanley Fischer is in line to takeover the joint, and perhaps soon.

That’s because Janet Yellen is surely finished whether the Donald wins or loses. Her dithering and double-talk have become a laughingstock even in the Wall Street casino.

So you might have thought the good professor from MIT—-by way of the IMF and Bank Of Israel—– would be carefully parsing his words. Instead, he was apparently moved during a speech to economics students to confess that he is more or less flummoxed by his own policies:

WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Tuesday expressed frustration with ultralow interest rates, saying they should rise over time.

“It bothers me, it really bothers me,” he said when asked about low rates at an event for economics students at Howard University in Washington…….I don’t like it, but I don’t want to raise the interest rate too much. I think we should at some point. I don’t know when,” he said. “The interest rate I believe is not at zero at a normal level and it should be [normal] at some point, not immediately.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

China Relies On Property Bubbles To Prop Up GDP


Carl Mydans Sharecropper’s family in Mississippi County, Missouri 1936
Lots of China again today. Most of it based on warnings, coming from the BIS, about the country’s financial shenanigans. I’m getting the feeling we have gotten so used to huge and often unprecedented numbers, viewed against the backdrop of an economy that still seems to remain standing, that many don’t know what to make of this anymore.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard ties the BIS report to Hyman Minsky’s work, which is kind of funny, because our good friend and Minsky adept Steve Keen is the economist who most emphasizes the need to differentiate between public and private debt, in particular because public debt is not a big risk whereas private debt certainly is.

And that happens to be the main topic where people seem to get confused about China. To quote Ambrose: “..Outstanding loans have reached $28 trillion, as much as the commercial banking systems of the US and Japan combined. The scale is enough to threaten a worldwide shock if China ever loses control. Corporate debt alone has reached 171pc of GDP..”

The big Kahuna question then becomes: should Chinese outstanding loans and corporate debt be seen as public debt or private debt, given that the dividing line between state and corporations is as opaque and shifting as it is? Even the BIS looks confused. I’ll address that below. First, here’s Ambrose:

BIS Flashes Red Alert For a Banking Crisis in China

The Bank for International Settlements warned in its quarterly report that China’s “credit to GDP gap” has reached 30.1%, the highest to date and in a different league altogether from any other major country tracked by the institution. It is also significantly higher than the scores in East Asia’s speculative boom on 1997 or in the US subprime bubble before the Lehman crisis.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Ken Rogoff’s Government Debt Default Plan

Ken Rogoff’s Government Debt Default Plan

 

Ken Rogoff is by all accounts a brilliant man. The Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist is a chess grandmaster. His thesis committee included current Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer. But like many survivors of Ivy League hoop jumping, the poor fellow appears to have emerged punch drunk.

That’s the only conclusion to be drawn from Rogoff’s new book, The Curse of Cash , which, in effect, proposes a ban on paper currency.

It’s terrifying piece of work, for several reasons.

First, the cashless society, which Rogoff proposes in order to make it easier for the US government to confiscate private wealth, in effect, amounts to an admission that Washington can’t pay back its debts.

Second, the fact that Rogoff uses the fight against “terrorism” and “crime” arguments in selling his proposals to the public – justifications which he as a mathematician should know are farcical – suggest that his arguments hide another agenda.

Third, and most important, is the fact that not only would banning cash not achieve Rogoff’s objectives – it could cause irreparable harm to the dollar’s role in the American economy and as a reserve currency.

Let’s look at these arguments one at a time.

Enforced negative rates ARE debt defaults

Rogoff’s “cashless society” is an elegant solution to a key problem bedeviling the Federal Reserve: with interest rates at the zero bound, the US central bank has no ammunition left to fight the next recession – because if cuts rates below zero, savers will withdraw their cash and put it under their mattresses.

“In principle, cutting interest rates below zero ought to stimulate consumption and investment in the same way as normal monetary policy,” Rogoff writes. “Unfortunately, the existence of cash gums up the works.”

That argument is spurious at best.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“The Resentment Will Explode” – In Dramatic Twist, McKinsey Slams Globalization

“The Resentment Will Explode” – In Dramatic Twist, McKinsey Slams Globalization

Moments ago, in a speech in Washington, IMF head Christine Lagarde said that “The greatest challenge we face today is the risk of the world turning its back on global cooperation—the cooperation which has served us all well. We know that globalization – and increased integration – over the past generation has yielded many economic benefits for many people.”

The IMF is not alone: for years, consultancy giant McKinsey towed the party line as well saying in 2010 that “the core drivers of globalization are alive and well” and adding as recently as 2014 that “to be unconnected is to fall behind.

That appears have changing, and cracks are starting to form behind the cohesive push for globalization, at least among those who benefit the most from globalization.

In a stunning study released today, one which effectively refutes all its prior conclusions on the matter, McKinsey slams the establishment’s status quo thinking and admits that the economic gains of changes in the global economy have not been widely shared lately, especially in the developed world. In the report titled “Poorer Than Their Parents? Flat or Falling Incomes in Advanced Economies” it finds that prospects for income growth have deteriorated significantly since the financial crisis, and that the benefits from globalization are now over:

This overwhelmingly positive income trend has ended. A new McKinsey Global Institute report, Poorer than their parents? Flat or falling incomes in advanced economies, finds that between 2005 and 2014, real incomes in those same advanced economies were flat or fell for 65 to 70 percent of households, or more than 540 million people (exhibit). And while government transfers and lower tax rates mitigated some of the impact, up to a quarter of all households still saw disposable income stall or fall in that decade.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System”: IMF

“Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System”: IMF

Over three years ago we wrote “At $72.8 Trillion, Presenting The Bank With The Biggest Derivative Exposure In The World” in which we introduced a bank few until then had imagined was the riskiest in the world.

As we explained then “the bank with the single largest derivative exposure is not located in the US at all, but in the heart of Europe, and its name, as some may have guessed by now, is Deutsche Bank. The amount in question? €55,605,039,000,000. Which, converted into USD at the current EURUSD exchange rate amounts to $72,842,601,090,000….  Or roughly $2 trillion more than JPMorgan’s.”

So here we are three years later, when not only did Deutsche Bank just flunk the Fed’s stress test for the second year in a row, but moments ago in a far more damning analysis, none other than the IMF disclosed that Deutsche Bank poses the greatest systemic risk to the global financial system, explicitly stating that the German bank “appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks.”

Yes, the same bank whose stock price hit a record low just two days ago.

Here is the key section in the report:

Domestically, the largest German banks and insurance companies are highly interconnected. The highest degree of interconnectedness can be found between Allianz, Munich Re, Hannover Re, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and Aareal bank, with Allianz being the largest contributor to systemic risks among the publicly-traded German financials. Both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are the source of outward spillovers to most other publicly-listed banks and insurers. Given the likelihood of distress spillovers between banks and life insurers, close monitoring and continued systemic risk analysis by authorities is warranted. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Bravo Brexit!

Bravo Brexit!

At long last the tyranny of the global financial elite has been slammed good and hard. You can count on them to attempt another central bank based shock and awe campaign to halt and reverse the current sell-off, but it won’t be credible, sustainable or maybe even possible.

The central bankers and their compatriots at the EU, IMF, White House/Treasury, OECD, G-7 and the rest of the Bubble Finance apparatus have well and truly over-played their hand. They have created a tissue of financial lies; an affront to the very laws of markets, sound money and capitalist prosperity.

After all, what predicate of sober economics could possibly justify $10 trillion of sovereign debt trading at negative yields?

Or a stock market trading at 24X reported earnings in the face of a faltering global economy and a tepid domestic US business cycle expansion which at 84 months is already long in the tooth and showing signs of recession everywhere?

And that’s to say nothing of the endless ranks of insanely over-valued “story” stocks like Valeant was and the megalomaniacal visions of Elon Musk still are.

So there will be payback, clawback and traumatic deflation of the bubbles. Plenty of it, as far as the eye can see.

On the immediate matter of Brexit, the British people have rejected the arrogant rule of the EU superstate and the tyranny of its unelected courts, commissions and bureaucratic overlords.

As Donald Trump was quick to point out, they have taken back their country. He urges that Americans do the same, and he might just persuade them.

But whether Trumpism captures the White House or not, it is virtually certain that Brexit is a contagious political disease. In response to today’s history-shaking event, determined campaigns for Frexit, Spexit, NExit, Grexit, Italxit, Hungexit and more centrifugal political emissions will next follow.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

IMF Blames Bad Loans For Mozambique’s Soaring Debt-To-GDP Ratio

IMF Blames Bad Loans For Mozambique’s Soaring Debt-To-GDP Ratio

Mozambique has a broad swath of problems within its governing councils.  Back in December of 2005, Management Systems International based out of Washington issued a report titled CORRUPTION ASSESSMENT: MOZAMBIQUE which said point blank: “The scale and scope of corruption in Mozambique are cause for alarm”.

Mozambique’s head of state Joaquim Chissano left office in February 2005 after 15 years.  His replacement, Armando Guebza, that same year opened Mozambique’s coastline to international companies seeking to search for resources.  Between 2005 and 2006 three firms were able to capture rights to explore the coast, Anadarko, Italy’s Eni, and Petronas.  Some 75 trillion cubic feet of natural gas was discovered and this set of a a blitz into Mozambique as international banks, corporations, and organizations flooded the area.  This opened a breeding ground for corruption and unregulated financing, specifically the controversial Tuna Bond that was supposed to be used to support regional fishing and was instead used for military expenditures and to purchase some 40 boats that remain anchored to this day.

The Collapse Of Mozambique’s FX – Annotated With Key Events

On Friday Reuters said the IMF blamed “undisclosed loans” for Mozambique’s 86% Debt/GDP ratio.

“Mozambique’s economic growth will likely slow to 4.5 percent in 2016 from 6.6 percent the previous year due to rapidly rising inflation and growing government debt, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday. The leader of a Fund team that visited the southern African country, Michel Lazare, said the discovery of more than $1 billion of previously undisclosed government debt would increase pressure on the economy.”

On April 19 2015 the IMF suspended its disbursement of $155M payment as part of a larger $286M emergency loan that was established as a means of stabilizing the nation’s currency after it collapsed.  What’s frustrating is that the IMF is blaming the 86% Debt-to-GDP as if they had not planned for it.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Another Stern Stock Market Crash Warning Was Just Issued by the IMF

Another Stern Stock Market Crash Warning Was Just Issued by the IMF

Another stern stock market crash warning was just issued from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and it’s fueling fear across global markets.

The IMF, an organization of 189 countries, is worried about the ripple effects should the United Kingdom vote to leave the European Union (EU).

A British vote to exit the EU, or “Brexit,” could have significant and negative effects on the UK economy, the IMF said last Friday. The quickly approaching Brexit voting date is June 23.

Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, said nothing positive could come from a Brexit. She cautioned a vote in favor of a Brexit could lead to a technical recession. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney shares a similar sentiment.

Dow Jones Industrial AverageThat has many investors worried that tensions overseas could lead to a 2016 stock market crash

A Brexit vote would cause a “protracted period of heightened uncertainty” and “severe regional and global damage,” the IMF warned. A spike in interest rates, extreme financial market volatility, and damage to London’s revered status as a global financial hub are all likely outcomes.

Other concerns include falling stock prices, a plunge in real estate values, surging borrowing costs for businesses and households, and a steep drop-off in foreign investment.

The UK’s economy could contract by 1% to 9% following a Brexit, according to the IMF’s research. If the UK chooses to stay in the 28-country bloc next month, the IMF expects the economy to grow about 2% this year and around 2.25% in 2017.

And the issue isn’t isolated to the United Kingdom. All global economies will be affected, which is what has sparked the stock market crash fears.

Atlanta U.S. Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart said last month that a vote for the UK to leave the EU might have destabilizing consequences for the world economy.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai II: Exodus
Click on image to purchase

Olduvai III: Cataclysm
Click on image to purchase