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Rating agency S&P warns 13 oil and gas companies they risk downgrades as renewables pick up steam

January 30, 2021

Rating agency S&P warns 13 oil and gas companies they risk downgrades as renewables pick up steam

Firms including Woodside, Chevron, Shell and Exxon Mobil, told they could be downgraded within weeks.

Royal Dutch Shell rig operators in Texas. Oil and gas companies have been told they could be downgraded between one and two notches as S&P increases risk rating for the entire sector.

Royal Dutch Shell rig operators in Texas. Oil and gas companies have been told they could be downgraded between one and two notches as S&P increases risk rating for the entire sector. Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images

Rating agency S&P has warned 13 oil and gas companies, including the some of the world’s biggest, that it may downgrade them within weeks because of increasing competition from renewable energy.

 

On notice of a possible downgrade are Australia’s Woodside Petroleum as well as multinationals Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Imperial Oil, Royal Dutch Shell, Shell Energy North America, Canadian Natural Resources, ConocoPhillips and French group Total.

S&P said it was also considering downgrading four large Chinese producers – China Petrochemical Corp, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, China National Offshore Oil Corp and CNOOC.

The rating agency said it had increased its risk rating for the entire oil and gas sector from “intermediate” to “moderately high” because due to the move away from fossil fuels, poor profitability and volatile prices.

It said it also had a negative outlook for two other big oil and gas companies, British multinational BP and Canadian group Suncor, but did not plan to immediately reassess their credit ratings.

“In particular, we note significant challenges and uncertainties engendered by the energy transition, including market declines due to growth of renewables; pressures on profitability, specifically return on capital, as a result of high dollar capital investment levels over 2005-2015 and lower average oil and gas prices since 2014; and recent and potential oil and gas price volatility,” S&P said on Wednesday.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Connecticut Capital Hartford Downgraded To Junk By S&P

July 11, 2017

Connecticut Capital Hartford Downgraded To Junk By S&P

One week ago, Illinois passed its three year-overdue budget in hopes of avoiding a downgrade to junk status, however in an unexpected twist, Moody’s said that it may still downgrade the near-insolvent state, regardless of the so-called budget “deal.” In fact, a downgrade of Illinois may come at any moment, making it the first U.S. state whose bond ratings tip into junk, although as of yesterday, credit rating agencies said they were still reviewing the state’s newly enacted budget and tax package. The most likely outcome is, unfortunately for Illinois, adverse: “I think Moody’s has been pretty clear that they view the state’s political dysfunction combined with continued unaddressed long-term liabilities, and unfavorable baseline revenue performance as casting some degree of skepticism on the state’s ability to manage out of the very fragile financial situation they are in,” said John Humphrey, co-head of credit research at Gurtin Municipal Bond Management.

And yet, while Illinois squirms in the agony of the unknown, another municipality that as recently as a month ago was rumored to be looking at a bankruptcy filing, the state capital of Connecticut, Hartford, no longer has to dread the unknown: on Tuesday afternoon, S&P pulled off the band-aid, and downgraded the city’s bond rating by two notches to BB from BBB-, also known as junk, citing “growing liquidity pressures” and “weaker market access prospects”, while keeping the city’s General Obligation bonds on Creditwatch negative meaning more downgrades are likely imminent.

“The downgrade to ‘BB’ reflects our opinion of very weak diminished liquidity, including uncertain access to external liquidity and very weak management conditions as multiple city officials have publicly indicated they are actively considering bankruptcy,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Victor Medeiros. Hartford has engaged an outside law firm with expertise in financial restructuring. 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Fitch Downgrades Italy To BBB From BBB+

April 22, 2017

Fitch Downgrades Italy To BBB From BBB+

Having largely disappeared from the market’s scope for the past 6 months, ever since Europe “bent” its rule allowing the bailout of Monte Paschi and several smaller banks despite Italy having the greatest amount of disclosed NPLs of any European nation, moments ago Fitch decided to drag Italy right back in the spotlight when it downgraded Italy to BBB from BBB+, citing “Italy’s persistent track record of fiscal slippage, back-loading of consolidation, weak economic growth, and resulting failure to bring down the very high level of general government debt has left it more exposed to potential adverse shocks. This is compounded by an increase in political risk, and ongoing weakness in the banking sector which has required planned public intervention in three banks since December.”

And some more:

Italy has missed successive targets for general government debt/GDP, which increased by 0.5pp in 2016 to 132.6%. This is 11.2% of GDP higher than the target in the Stability Programme of 2013, the year Fitch downgraded Italy’s Long-Term IDRs to ‘BBB+’, and compares with the current ‘BBB’ range median of 41.5% of GDP. Fitch forecasts general government debt to peak at 132.7% of GDP in 2017, falling only gradually to 129.3% in 2020 in our debt sensitivity projections.

Fitch’s rating Outlook for the Italian banking sector is Negative, primarily reflecting the challenge of reducing the high level of un-provisioned non-performing loans (NPLs), alongside weak profitability and capital generation. The rate of new NPLs edged down to 2.3% in 4Q16, and there is some greater impetus for disposals and write-downs, which has slightly reduced total NPLs. However, sofferenze, the worst category of loans, increased to EUR203 billion in February, from EUR199 billion in October. Total NPLs amount to close to 17.5% of loans and 20% of GDP, and just over half are provided against.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed “QE For The Entire World”… And May Have Bailed Out US Shale

April 22, 2016

The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed “QE For The Entire World”… And May Have Bailed Out US Shale

Almost exactly one year ago, we wrote “Mario Draghi, Collateral Scarcity, And Why The ECB Will Soon Buy Corporate Bonds.” 11 months later, the ECB confirmed this when for the first time ever, Mario Draghi said he would do purchase corporate bonds when he launched the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP), confirming that with government bond collateral evaporating and the liquidity situation getting precariously dangerous and forcing moments of historic volatility (as in the April/May 2015 Bund fiasco), he had run out of other options.

And while we have been covering this key development closely since its announcement more than a month ago, we were surprised by how little attention most of the sellside was paying to what is clearly a watershed moment in capital markets as a central banks now openly backstops corporate bond issuance (among other things pointing out a month ago Why The ECB Will Be Forced To Buy Junk Bonds Next). Ironically, the market was fully aware of what the ECB’s action meant as we showed in the “The ECB Effect: European Telecom Issues Largest Ever Junk Bond After More Than 100% Upsizing.”

Now, following the release of the full details of its corporate bond buying program, analysts are once again keenly focused on hits program who impact will be dramatic over the coming years.

First, as a reminder, here are the big picture details:

  • May buy in primary and secondary markets
  • Issue share limit of 70% per ISIN
  • Inclusion of bonds issued by insurance companies
  • Can buy bonds of companies incorporated in the euro area whose ultimate parent is not based in the euro area
  • Remaining maturity of 6 months and maximum of 30Y

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

KKR’s Chilling Message about the “End of the Credit Cycle”

April 7, 2016

KKR’s Chilling Message about the “End of the Credit Cycle”

“Opportunities in Distressed Assets” as current investors get crushed

After seven years of “emergency” monetary policies that allowed companies to borrow cheaply even if they didn’t have the cash flow to service their debts, other than by borrowing even more, has created the beginnings of a tsunami of defaults.

The number of corporate defaults in the fourth quarter 2015 was the fifth highest on record. Three of the other four quarters were in 2009, during the Financial Crisis.

At stake? $8.2 trillion in corporate bonds outstanding, up 77% from ten years ago! On top of nearly $2 trillion in commercial and industrial loans outstanding, up over 100% from ten years ago. Debt everywhere!

Of these bonds, about $1.8 trillion are junk-rated, according to JP Morgan data. Standard & Poor’s warned that the average credit rating of US corporate borrowers, at “BB,” and thus in junk territory, hit a record low, even “below the average we recorded in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 credit crisis.”

The risks? A company with a credit rating of B- has a 1-in-10 chance of defaulting within 12 months!

In total, $4.1 trillion in bonds will mature over the next five years. If companies cannot get new funds at affordable rates, they might not be able to redeem their bonds. Even before then, some will run out of cash to make interest payments.

A bunch of these companies are outside the energy sector. They have viable businesses that throw off plenty of cash, but not enough cash to service their mountains of debts! Among them are brick-and-mortar retailers that have been bought out by private equity firms and have since been loaded up with debt. And they include over-indebted companies like iHeart Communications, Sprint, or Univsion.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Debt Spiral Grips Both, Pemex and Mexico

April 6, 2016

Debt Spiral Grips Both, Pemex and Mexico

It was just a matter of time before Pemex, Mexico’s chronically indebted state-owned oil giant, began dragging down the national economy it had almost single handedly sustained for over 75 years.

The company has been bleeding losses for 13 straight quarters. As of December 31, it had $114.3 billion in assets and $180.6 billion in liabilities, a good chunk of it denominated in dollars, leaving a gaping hole of $66.3 billion (negative equity), after having been strip-mined over the decades by its owner, the government. And given these losses and the equity hole, new credit is becoming harder to come by.

Now it seems that Mexico’s worst nightmare is beginning to come true, thanks in no small part to Moody’s Investors Service. The credit rating agency last week downgraded Pemex’s credit rating from Baa1 to Baa3. In November Pemex had a perfectly respectable credit rating of Aa3; now, just six months later, it’s perilously perched just one notch above junk.

“Moody’s believes that Pemex’s credit metrics will worsen as oil prices remain low, production continues to drop, taxes remain high, and the company must adjust down capital spending to meet its budgetary targets,” the report said.

That was for Pemex. Now Moody’s also changed the outlook for Mexico’s sovereign rating from stable to negative.

This, coupled with the mounting risk of a credit downgrade, heaps further pressure on a government already struggling to shore up its balance sheet. Hardly helping matters is the fact that oil prices, a key source of government revenues, continue to languish at low levels, while the prospect of a massive bailout of Pemex looms ever larger. As if that were not enough, Mexico’s manufacturing industry is beginning to feel a very sharp pinch from weakening U.S. consumer demand.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Sweden Most At Risk Of Asset Bubble” Moody’s Warns, After Taking A Look At Swedish House Prices

March 16, 2016

“Sweden Most At Risk Of Asset Bubble” Moody’s Warns, After Taking A Look At Swedish House Prices

Last September, in the aftermath of Sweden going full NIRP, we warned that “Sweden Goes Full Krugman, Gets Massive Housing Bubble“, in which we showed the unprecedented surge in Swedish home prices, which have been the one asset class to “benefit” the from the Riksbank’s ultra loose monetary policy hoping to stimulate inflation, even as overall inflation has failed to materialize.

Since then things have only gone more surreal, and the chart below shows what has happened to Swedish home prices in recent months.

Today, six months after our most recent observations on the state of the Swedish housing bubble, Moody’s chimes in and warns that as a result of NIRP, the country is most at risk of an “ultimately unsustainable asset bubble”:

… the unintended consequences of the ultra-loose monetary policy are becoming increasingly apparent — in the form of rapidly rising house prices and persistently strong growth in mortgage credit”, adds Ms Muehlbronner. In Moody’s view, these trends will likely continue as interest rates will remain low, raising the risk of a house price bubble, with potentially adverse effects on financial stability as and when house prices reverse trends. In all three countries, households are highly leveraged, and while they also have high levels of financial assets, returns on these assets will be under increasing pressure if the negative interest and yield environment persists.

And adds:

Moody’s believes that the Riksbank will find it difficult to achieve its objective of significantly pushing up consumer price inflation in a deflationary global environment, while the sustained and strong growth in mortgage lending and house prices risks leading to an (ultimately unsustainable) asset bubble.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Moody’s Just Put Over Half A Trillion Dollars In Energy Debt On Downgrade Review

January 22, 2016

Moody’s Just Put Over Half A Trillion Dollars In Energy Debt On Downgrade Review

One week ago, in the aftermath of the dramatic downgrade to junk of Asian commodity giant Noble Group, we showed readers the list of potential “fallen angel” companies, those “investment “grade companies (such as Freeport McMoRan whose CDS trades at near-default levels) who are about to be badly junked, focusing on the 18 or so US energy companies that are about to lose their investment grade rating.

Perhaps inspired by this preview, earlier today Moody’s took the global energy sector to the woodshed, placing 175 global oil, gas and mining companies and groups on review for a downgrade due to a prolonged rout in global commodities prices that it says could remain depressed indefinitely.

The wholesale credit rating warning came alongside Moody’s cut to its oil price forecast deck. In 2016, it now expects the Brent and WTI to average $33 a barrel, a $10 drop for Brent and $7 for WTI.

Warning of possible downgrades for 120 energy companies, among which 69 public and private US corporations, the rating agency said there was a “substantial risk” of a slow recovery in oil that would compound the stress on oil and gas firms.

As first reported first by Reuters, the global review includes all major regions and ranges from the world’s top international oil and gas companies such as Royal Dutch Shell and France’s Total to 69 U.S. and 19 Canadian E&P and services firms. Notably absent, however, were the two top U.S. oil companies ExxonMobil and Chevron.

Moody’s said it was likely to conclude the review by the end of the first quarter which could include multiple-notch downgrades for some companies, particularly in North America, in other words, one of the biggest event risks toward the end of Q1 is a familiar one: unexpected announcements by the rating agencies, which will force banks to override their instructions by the Dallas Fed and proceed to boost their loss reserves dramatically.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Peak Desperation

October 14, 2015

Peak Desperation

When Standard and Poor’s downgraded Dell to junk in September 2013, it cited the slump in the PC business, the pricing pressures in the sector, and the proposed buyout of the company by founder Michael Dell and private equity firm Silver Lake Management. They’d heap new debt on the company whose sales at the time had dropped 8% from a year earlier, and whose net profit had plunged 32%. But at least it still had a profit.

Today the PC industry is still in trouble. HP has been laying off people in big mega-waves, so have Microsoft, Intel, and others.

But OK, instead of investing in cutting-edge products and services that could move the company forward, it’s the perfect time for Dell and its investors to embark on the largest tech deal ever, a masterpiece of financial engineering, the $67 billion buyout of data-storage company EMC.

Standard and Poor’s, which affirmed Dell’s current junk rating of BB+ but put EMC on CreditWatch negative, figured that the deal would be funded through a mix of debt issuance, including perhaps $40 billion in leveraged loans, equity from current owners and the Singaporean wealth fund Temasek, some cash on hand, and the issuance of a flimsy tracking stock – similar to issuing old bicycles – to track VMware’s stock price. Details have not been disclosed.

Wall Street loves it. A whole slew of financial advisors are in on the deal, on both sides. The $40 billion in leveraged loans alone could rake in $500 million in fees, Business Insider reported. Total advisory and financing fees could exceed $700 million. Ka-ching.

And what multiple is Dell paying for EMC? Back in 2013, Michael Dell and his compadres were paying 5 times Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) for Dell.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

S&P Wakes Up, Cuts Italy to One Notch Above Junk | Wolf Street

December 5, 2014

S&P Wakes Up, Cuts Italy to One Notch Above Junk | Wolf Street.

Italy has one of the most troubled economies in the EU. Businesses and individuals are buckling under confiscatory taxes that everyone is feverishly trying to dodge. Banks are stuffed with non-performing loans that have jumped 20% from a year ago. The economy is crumbling under an immense burden of government debt that, unlike Japan, Italy cannot slough off the easy way by devaluing its own currency and stirring up a big bout of inflation – because it doesn’t have its own currency.

Devaluation and inflation used to be Italy’s favorite methods of dealing with its economic problems. It went like this: Politicians made promises that they knew couldn’t be kept but that bought a lot of votes. When everything ground down as industries were getting hammered by competition from across the border, the government stirred up inflation, and then over some weekend, the lira would be devalued. It was bitter medicine. It was painful. It didn’t even cure anything. It impoverished the people. But it temporarily made Italy competitive with its neighbors once again.

Most recently, Italy devalued in 1990 and then again 1992 against the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, a predecessor to the euro. Having to take this bitter medicine time and again had made Italians the most eager to adopt the euro. The idea of a currency that would be out of reach of politicians and that would function as a reliable store of value, run by the Germans as if it were the mark, and in turn, keep politicians honest – all that seemed like paradise.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

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