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Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 10 – Will Boeing trigger Crash?

Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 10 – Will Boeing trigger Crash? 


“Ignite blue touch paper and step back. Do not let Children play with Fireworks.” 

All eyes on what Powell tells Washington today, but a number of Porridge Readers called to tell me I’m wrong about summer risks! They think my expectation for a long worried nervous but stable summer before markets are bailed out by accommodative central banks in late Q3 is way too optimistic. 

A number feel markets are ripe for a sudden and painful rollover in bonds and stocks – and much sooner than I think. What they did agree with was my assessment the likely trigger for a market shock will be a “no-see-em”, something so obviously hidden in plain sight it catches us completely and painfully by the short and curlies. 

And “Plane” sight might be a good way to put it. I’m wondering if Boeing might be the trigger! (See what I did there..?) 

Hang on? We all know the next market collapse isn’t booked till October? Well maybe not. What if someone tries to start the market apocalypse early? That would shock the many market participants who think the perception of a Global Central Bank put means there is nothing to worry about. Complacency is a terrible thing. 

Smart bond gurus are shouting bubble! Although US junk bonds have not tightened as much as treasuries through the last uptick, they are still at incredibly tight spreads. European sub-investment grade is rallying in the expectation a tide of new ECB investment grade purchases will lift all boats. Yet, with yields so low as to completely discourage any dealer inventory (which is too high a capital cost anyway), liquidity has never been so thin.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Third and Final Leg of Stock Market Crash in October or Sooner

Third and Final Leg of Stock Market Crash in October or Sooner

Third and Final Leg of Stock Market Crash in October or Sooner – Part 2 David Brady (25/04/2019)

I shared the first part of this series of articles last week, explaining why I expect the third and final leg of the crash that began in October 2018 to occur in October 2019, or sooner, and see the S&P 500 fall ~30% to lower lows ~2100-2200.

Until then, I expect the S&P to slowly grind higher towards 3000-3150, short-term pullbacks aside.

This matters to Gold because when stocks crash, the Fed will be forced to reverse policy to rate cuts, QE, and more monetary insanity on steroids, and that will catapult precious metals and miners to new highs.

There are many reasons why I expect another “Crash in the Fall” like that in 2018. I began with Liquidity last week, now let’s cover the technical and Elliott wave case for the crash in October (“or sooner”), especially based on how close we are to the peak above circa 3000 plus.

TECHNICALS

Sven Henrich did some excellent work recently on the S&P from a technical perspective, which I am sharing here. 

Drawing the upper trend line (see chart below) from the 2007 highs into the January 2018 and September 2018 highs, and the lower trend line from the 2009 lows, the one that was broken in December 2018 and has been hugged by markets for the past several weeks, they intersect at circa 3100. 

The middle trend line dates back to the 1987 crash and formed following the 2000 crash, then ended up being resistance in 2014-2015 and twice in 2018. Note from that chart that it, too, intersects the other two trend lines at the same point, 3100.

Circa 3100 also represents 261.8% Fibonacci level derived from the 2007 highs and the 2009 lows. 

Three historic trend lines converging at the same key Fibonacci level is a powerful signal. A quadruple convergence, as Sven puts it. And if that wasn’t sufficiently interesting, then consider “when” they converge: October 2019.

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

World is Comfortably Unaware of Approaching Disaster – Andrei Polgar

World is Comfortably Unaware of Approaching Disaster – Andrei Polgar

Best-selling author of “The Age of Anomaly,” economist Andrei Polgar, says the world is set up to be blindsided in the next financial disaster. Polgar points out, “Right now, after so many years after the ‘Great Recession,’ not only are people comfortably unaware, but even worse yet, the entire idea of financial preparedness has been discredited. I have noticed this because I have been on many shows promoting my book. . . . People are not that interested in financial preparedness. A common element was always this: People have made predictions, and they didn’t pan out. Other analysts have made gloomy predictions, and they didn’t pan out. So now, the general public has essentially been numbed. One of the big issues I talk about with my book is sustainable financial preparedness, and it’s a tough sell. It’s a tough sell because people are even worse than just ignorant in an uncomfortable way; they are downright dismissive with anything that has to do with financial preparedness. So, on top of all the problems with our economy, and on top of all the political issues you are well aware of, we also have this general state of not even apathy, even worse, contempt . . . of financial preparedness in general.”

Polgar says, “Market crashes are cyclical. Of course, we are going to have one, and I am not afraid of the idea of a market crash. I am afraid of what happens when the chain is broken or, to put it differently, when the status quo no longer works. . . . Your readers comment about being comfortably ignorant. That makes perfect sense. People have in their mind, yeah, there is going to be a crash, but central banks and governments will have it all under control.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Glimpse At 2019​​

A Glimpse At 2019​​

Markets In Critical Transformation, Chaotic Behaviour Has Just Began.

Our inability as market participants to properly frame market fragility and the inherent vulnerability of the financial system makes a market crash more likely, as it helps Systemic Risk go unattended and build further up. For the first time in a while, elusive economic narratives started to fail at blaming market weakness on secondary-order factors: Trade Wars, the FED, Oil prices. Attempts at dismissing market events as no more than a temporary turbulence miss the bigger picture and cast the fishing net on unaware investors looking for a dip to buy. In contrast, over the last month, conventional market and economic indicators (e.g. breaks of multi-year equity & home price trend-lines, freezing credit markets, softening global PMIs/orders) have all but confirmed what non-traditional measures of system-level fragility signalled all along: that a market crash is incubating, and the cliff is near. Nothing has happened yet.
1.      Early Tremors, Not Market Bottoms
2.      Elusive Narratives Fail, Unveiling a Deeper Malaise
3.      Mainstream Investment Strategies Face a Tougher New Year
4.      Triggers For Market Chaos: A Timeline For 2019
Early Tremors, Not Market Bottoms
After a slow start, the season of market chaos has taken off.
In the last few months, global markets have visibly entered the ‘phase transition zone’, a process of critical transformation that will eventually lead to a new equilibrium at significantly different levels, after severe ruptures and a possible full-cycle market crash.
Rather than ‘a short-term correction in a structural bull market’, or a ‘temporary turmoil in healthy economic conditions’, this is the beginning of a structural adjustment after a decade of liquidity abundance and market manipulation, which reflexively changed the structure itself of the market for private investors in hazardous ways, making it insensitive to fundamentals, passive or quasi-passive, overly-correlated and overly-concentrated. 

 …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008?

Getty images

Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008?

Crashes differ, so be cautious about your assumptions

Even people who don’t follow the stock market closely are aware that the global economy is weakening and appears to be heading into recession.

For those who track the stock market, the signs are ominous: the U.S. was the last major market to notch gains this year and in October the U.S. market followed the rest of the global markets into an extended slide which has yet to end.

Just as sobering, key sectors such as oil, banking and utilities have crashed with alarming ferocity, reaching oversold levels last seen in 2008 as the global financial system was melting down.

These sectors crashing sends an unmistakable signal: the global economy is heading into a potentially severe recession and assets will not be rising in value in a recessionary environment. So better to sell risk-assets like stocks now rather than later, and rotate the money into safe assets such as Treasury bonds.

And indeed, households now own more Treasuries than the Federal Reserve–a remarkable shift in risk appetite.

Many other indicators of recession are in the news: auto and home sales and global trade are all slumping.

Are we in a repeat of the global financial meltdown and recession of 2008-09? The sharp drop in equities is certainly reminiscent of 2008. Indeed, the December decline is the worst in a decade. Or are we entering a different kind of recession, the equivalent of uncharted waters?

And if we are entering a recession, what can central banks and governments do to ease the financial pain and damage? We can’t be sure of much, but we can be relatively confident central banks and states will respond to the cries to “do something.”  This poses two questions: what actions can central banks/states take, and will those policies work or will they backfire and make the recession worse?

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

The Everything Bubble Has Met Its Needle… and It’s Named Jerome Powell

The Everything Bubble Has Met Its Needle… and It’s Named Jerome Powell

In December, Jerome Powell confirmed that he is going to implement a financial reset.

That reset will crash stocks.

We know this because the Fed didn’t even HINT at tapering its Quantitative Tightening program at this latest Fed FOMC despite stocks staging the worst December since the Great Depression.

This tells us that the Powell Fed is going to normalize the Fed’s balance sheet no matter what. And THAT is the real issue for the financial markets (the withdrawal of liquidity) NOT rate hikes/cuts.

This is what the market is reacting to. Stocks now know that the era of easy money is over. The Fed is being run by a man who doesn’t see it has his job to create/sustain asset bubbles.

And that is why The Fed Has Confirmed It Will Crash Stocks

In December, Jerome Powell confirmed that he is going to implement a financial reset.

That reset will crash stocks.

We know this because the Fed didn’t even HINT at tapering its Quantitative Tightening program at this latest Fed FOMC despite stocks staging the worst December since the Great Depression.

This tells us that the Powell Fed is going to normalize the Fed’s balance sheet no matter what. And THAT is the real issue for the financial markets (the withdrawal of liquidity) NOT rate hikes/cuts.

This is what the market is reacting to. Stocks now know that the era of easy money is over. The Fed is being run by a man who doesn’t see it has his job to create/sustain asset bubbles.

And that is why we are going to crash.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

2019 MARKET MELTDOWN: What The New Year Brings

2019 MARKET MELTDOWN: What The New Year Brings

If history is our guide, we are on track for a severe market meltdown in 2019.  While the U.S. broader indexes remained in record territory for most of 2018, December turned out to be a complete disaster for stocks.  So, even though the markets have reversed higher from their Christmas Eve lows, this is nothing more than a bear market rally.

It’s really that simple.  Thus, all the hype about “Fed Market Rigging” to push the markets up a record 1,000 points following the Christmas Eve massacre, becomes white noise as markets always correct higher after a massive selloff, with or without the Plunge Protection Team (PPT).  Furthermore, the notion put forth by members of the Alt-Media suggesting that the Fed rate hikes will cause another market crash, and wealth transfer makes no sense in an EROI Collapse (Energy Returned On Investment).

As the EROI of the oil industry falls even lower with the addition of oil sands and shale oil, there will come a time when the economy and market will disintegrate due to a lack of profitable net energy.  In this future net-energy-starved economy, most ASSETS will become LIABILITIES.  So, the lousy conspiracy that the Fed is using their “rate hike policy” for the “grand elite wealth transfer,” needs to be thrown in the waste-bin for good.

Folks, it’s time to stop focusing on lousy conspiracies and figure out what you are going to do when energy becomes a real problem.

Unfortunately, hype and conspiracies sell a lot of books and subscriptions because they are more exciting than facts, data, and information. It seems to me that a large number of the Alt-Media followers are being misled just as much as their Mainstream media counterparts.  However, they don’t realize it… LOL.

Okay, let’s get back to the 2019 Market Meltdown.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

These 8 Red Flags Warn Us We’re Speeding Toward an Economic Collapse RIGHT NOW

These 8 Red Flags Warn Us We’re Speeding Toward an Economic Collapse RIGHT NOW

This isn’t exactly an article loaded with Christmas cheer, but there’s a very good reason that my family has strictly limited our holiday splurges this year. It’s because all the signs right now seem to indicate the US is hurtling toward an economic collapse.

It’s inevitable, of course. Our economy has been artificially propped up for decades, since abandoning the gold standard. We’re $21 trillion dollars in debt, an unfathomable number. The fact that other countries still lend us money boggles the mind. If the United States was a person with such a high ratio of debt that we aren’t paying off, we wouldn’t even be able to buy a car with one of those 25% interest loans, that’s how bad our credit would be.

Not only that, but there are some parties who seem to want to see the economy go belly up for their own greedy and nefarious purposes.

Here are the red flags that have me concerned about an imminent economic collapse.

The stock market is crashing.

Right now, the market is on track for a month that is equivalent to the crash of 1929, when the Great Depression began.  Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are down by 8% during a month that is usually really good. Michael Snyder reported:

The ferocity of this stock market crash is stunning many of the experts, and many investors are beginning to panic.  Back in early October, the Dow hit an all-time high of 26,951.81, but on Monday it closed at just 23,592.98.  That means that the Dow has now plunged more than 3,300 points from the peak of the market, and many believe that this stock crash is just getting started. (source)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Market Analyst: The Stock Market Will Lose 60%, Or $20 Trillion In Next Crash

Market Analyst: The Stock Market Will Lose 60%, Or $20 Trillion In Next Crash

Market analyst John Hussman, who is a market bear, has claimed that the stock market will lose about $20 trillion in the next crash.  That is equal to 60% of the market value.

Hussman has been warning that stock valuations have been extreme for years, and is long overdue for a return to historical norms, according to Investopedia.  “The only time we’ve ever seen a confluence of risk factors anywhere close to those of today was the week of March 24, 2000, which marked the peak of the technology bubble,” he wrote in a recent blog post quoted by Business Insider.

While Hussman’s prediction is certainly severe, a drop of that magnitude is far from unprecedented. In fact, it is not much worse than the last bear market that ran from 2007 to 2009, also known as the Great Recession. Additionally, some other market indices fared even worse than the S&P 500 in these episodes. Most notably, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) lost a whopping 78% of its value during the notorious “dotcom crash.”

 The market value of all publicly traded U.S. stocks reached $30 trillion in January, per Barron‘s. Since then, the Russell 3000 has fallen by 1.5%, suggesting that its market value is just slightly lower today. As a result, the $20 trillion plunge predicted by Hussman would represent roughly a 66% decline. Other prominent investors and market watchers have issued bearish forecasts in 2018. –Investopedia

Hussman is blaming the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program for this major problem. “The current back-slapping about the success of extraordinary monetary policy is a lot like declaring victory in a football game at halftime, just before a flock of fire-breathing dragons swoops onto the field and eats the leading team.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

This Is How the “Everything Bubble” Will End

This Is How the “Everything Bubble” Will End

I think there’s a very high chance of a stock market crash of historic proportions before the end of Trump’s first term.

That’s because the Federal Reserve’s current rate-hiking cycle, which started in 2015, is set to pop “the everything bubble.”

I’ll explain how this could all play out in a moment. But first, you need to know how the Fed creates the boom-bust cycle…

To start, the Fed encourages malinvestment by suppressing interest rates lower than their natural levels. This leads companies to invest in plants, equipment, and other capital assets that only appear profitable because borrowing money is cheap.

This, in turn, leads to misallocated capital – and eventually, economic loss when interest rates rise, making previously economic investments uneconomic.

Think of this dynamic like a variable rate mortgage. Artificially low interest rates encourage individual home buyers to take out mortgages. If interest rates stay low, they can make the payments and maintain the illusion of solvency.

But once interest rates rise, the mortgage interest payments adjust higher, making them less and less affordable until, eventually, the borrower defaults.

In short, bubbles are inflated when easy money from low interest rates floods into a certain asset.

Rate hikes do the opposite. They suck money out of the economy and pop the bubbles created from low rates.

It Almost Always Ends in a Crisis

Almost every Fed rate-hiking cycle ends in a crisis. Sometimes it starts abroad, but it always filters back to U.S. markets.

Specifically, 16 of the last 19 times the Fed started a series of interest rate hikes, some sort of crisis that tanked the stock market followed. That’s around 84% of the time.

You can see some of the more prominent examples in the chart below.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

To One Bank, This Is The Flashing Red Warning That A Crash Is Dead Ahead

For much of 2018, the prevailing market theme was the one Morgan Stanley dubbed “rolling bear markets” when any time a given asset was hit, whether emerging markets, Italian bonds, or tech stocks, money would simply rotate from one place to another. However, at the end of September, when rates spiked amid concerns the Fed was prepared to push rates beyond neutral, things changed overnight.

Fast forward to now when what appeared to be somewhat orderly sequential blow ups have mutated into wholesale market panics in which everything starts to go wrong at once, or as Bloomberg describes it “everywhere you look, something’s blowing up.”

In commodities, it’s the record plunge in oil. In equities, it’s six weeks of turbulence in the S&P 500. Debt markets have been rattled by the turmoil engulfing General Electric and PG&E. Bitcoin just plunged 13 percent. And Goldman Sachs, the storied investment bank, is having the worst week since 2016.

As Bloomberg correctly notes, by themselves these sudden asset air pockets would be enough to incite panic, “but have them erupt all around and even the most grizzled Wall Street types can start to sound paranoid. Does GE have something to do with Goldman? How does Bitcoin sway the stock market? Wildfires have nothing to do with crude’s convulsions, but both are bad news for banks.”

“The risk of contagion is understood. What’s not understood is where and how connected things are,” Stewart Capital Advisors’ Malcolm Polley said by phone. “Just about anything can create panic, create contagion, and it doesn’t have to be something that makes sense.”

That bad things should congregate isn’t surprising to Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at Newbridge Securities, who sees it as a consequence of having it so good for so long. He’s waking up every night to check the futures.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Mike Maloney: “One Hell Of A Crisis”

Mike Maloney: “One Hell Of A Crisis”

Crashing stocks, bonds, real estate & currency all at once?

Mike Maloney, monetary historian and founder of GoldSilver.com, has just released two new chapters of his excellent Hidden Secrets Of Money video series.

In producing the series, Maloney has reviewed several thousand years of monetary history and has observed that government intervention and mismanagement — such as is now rampant across the world — has alwaysresulted in the diminishment and eventual failure of currency systems.

As for the world’s current fiat currency regimes, Mike sees a reckoning approaching. One that will be preceded by massive losses rippling across nearly all asset classes, destroying the phantom wealth created during the latest central bank-induced Everything Bubble, and grinding the global economy to a halt:

Gold and silver are tremendously undervalued right now, and I dare you to try to find another asset that is tremendously undervalued. There just is not. By all measures, everything is just in these hyper-bubbles. OK, real estate is not quite a hyper-bubble; it’s not quite as big as 2005 and 2006, but by all measures, it’s back into a bubble. But now, we’ve got the bond bubble, the biggest debt bubble in the world. These are all going to pop.

We had a stock market crash in the year 2000, and then in 2008, we had a crash in stocks and real estate. The next crash is going to be in stocks, real estate and bonds — including a lot of sovereign debt, corporate bonds and a whole lot of other bonds that will be crashing at the same time. So, it will be all of the standard financial asset classes, including the traditional ‘safe haven’ of bonds that are going to be crashing at the same time that the world monetary system is falling apart.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is The Long-Anticipated Crash Now Upon Us?

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Is The Long-Anticipated Crash Now Upon Us?

Is this the market’s breaking point?

I admit: I’m a permabear.

This is no surprise to those who know and have followed me over the years. But I’m publicly proclaiming my ‘bearishness’ because doing so might open up a needed and long overdue dialog.

Here’s my fundamental position:  Infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible. 

Cutting to the chase, this is why I predict a major crash/collapse across stocks, bonds and real estate is on the way.

The recent market weakness seen over the past two weeks is nothing compared to what’s in store.  As we’ve been carefully chronicling, bubbles burst from ‘the outside in’, starting at the weaker places at the periphery before progressing to the center.

Emerging market equities are now down -26% from their January highs and -18% year-to-date.  China’s stocks market is down -32%, even with substantial intervention by the government to prop things up.

The periphery has been weakening all year, and the contagion has now spead worldwide.

Taken as a whole, global equities have shed some $13 trillion of market capitalization for a -15% decline:

The rot has spread to the core with surprising speed. Now even the formerly bullet-proof US equity markets are stumbling.

The S&P 500 is now negative on the year:

It’s been obvious for a long time to those who have watched The Crash Course that endless growth is simply not possible. Not for a bacteria colony in a petrie dish, not for an economy, not for any species on the planet. Eventually, when finite resources are involved, limits matter.

But the vast majority of society pretends as if this isn’t true.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Trump Blaming Fed for Next Market Crash – Dave Janda

Trump Blaming Fed for Next Market Crash – Dave Janda

Radio host Dr. Dave Janda says everybody in Washington knows the next big crash is right around the corner. It’s been 10 years since the Fed reflated the last meltdown, and Dr. Janda says President Trump is already blaming the Federal Reserve for killing the economy that his policies revived. Dr. Janda explains, “President Trump has been pointing the finger at the Fed. He’s been pointing the finger at the Fed, and that is exactly where he should be pointing. The globalist syndicate’s tentacle is the central banking system, and, in particular, in the United States, the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is one of the entities that is directly responsible for this financial mess our country is currently in. You would never see Obama or the Bushes, or Bill Clinton, point at the Fed and say what Trump has said. Trump said, ‘I think the Fed has gone crazy. I think the Fed is making a mistake. They’re so tight with interest rates. I think the Fed has gone crazy.’ Just the other day, Trump said, ‘My biggest threat is the Fed. . . . The Fed is raising rates too fast, and it’s too independent.’ Now, wait a minute, listen to that. It’s too independent. When was the last time a president of the United States said the Fed was too independent? . . . . Banking groups, that is their priority. So, when the President says the Fed is raising rates too fast, and it’s my biggest enemy, and too independent, what he is saying is they are looking out for their own interests. They are not looking out for the interests of our country or for you or for me or for any American, and he’s right. I don’t know of any other president that has had the guts to say this.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Trump vs. The Fed: When Markets Crash, Who Is To Blame?

Trump vs. The Fed: When Markets Crash, Who Is To Blame?

After a certain length of time examining history in-depth, anyone who is honest and relatively objective comes to understand that most of what we are told about our past in the mainstream is completely fabricated. We learn that much of “history” is not about posterity or heritage and more about a continuous set of false narratives peppered with half-truths. That is to say, what we thought we knew is actually lies.

Unfortunately, these lies can be complex, to the point that even many alternative researchers get caught up in their own biases to the point that they lose track of reality. Of course, this is what propaganda and 4th generation warfare is meant to accomplish; it creates a series of filters that thin out the crowd of truth seekers a little at a time. Those few who make it through to the other side might discover the bigger picture, but when they turn around to explain what they have seen there’s hardly anyone left to listen.

Intricate propaganda narratives are actually rooted in simple archetypal memes that resonate with the average person’s sense of story. Think of mainstream historical events as more of a screenplay with a well-practiced set of beats, and the people who draft this screenplay intend we the public to act as an audience with limited participation. Our jobs are merely to continue providing fuel for the machine with our labor until the machine no longer needs us, and to continue perpetuating the fantasies that the machine conjures up as news feed fodder.

There are many actors that read lines from the historic screenplay and act out elaborate scenes meant to emotionally manipulate the masses. These actors play the roles of politicians and leaders of state.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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