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Are We Witnessing The Beginning Of The End For Fossil Fuels?
Are We Witnessing The Beginning Of The End For Fossil Fuels?
Bloomberg recently declared the era of fossil fuels irrevocably in decline: “The world is now adding more capacity for renewable power each year than coal, natural gas, and oil combined. And there’s no going back.”
The sea change in how we power our economies officially occurred in 2013, Bloomberg’s Tom Randall writes in “Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables.” That year, there were 143 gigawatts (GW) of renewable electricity capacity added globally, versus just 141 GW of new fossil-fueled capacity.
Despite low oil prices, the trend toward renewables is not going to slow down anytime soon, given that the cost of solar and wind power has steadily fallen to the point that it is now cheaper than grid electricity in some parts of the world, Randall argues. “The shift will continue to accelerate, and by 2030 more than four times as much renewable capacity will be added.”
That’s for electricity generation, of course, but before you can officially call the race in renewables’ favor, you have to consider transport. Our cars and trucks and planes mostly run on fossil fuels, after all. As Vox’s Brad Plumer points out, “Electricity and heat were only responsible for about 42 percent of global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in 2012. For clean energy to truly win the race, it will have to make inroads in other sectors as well, particularly transportation.”
An analysis by the International Energy Agency found that the amount of energy used for transport has doubled over the past three decades, and that slightly more than half of all oil is used for transport.
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Something To Consider Before Buying In To Rooftop Solar
Something To Consider Before Buying In To Rooftop Solar
Green energy has moved to the forefront of the national conversation on energy production even as oil prices sit near decade lows. The simple fact that solar power and wind power now command so much attention speaks to how the country’s views on energy have changed. But now some people are going one step further and actually looking to install enough solar panels on their homes to become energy positive – that is to generate more energy than they actually consume. Britain’s Guardian newspaper ran a recent story about this , but that story skipped over a few obvious issues. Issues that became clear to me after I recently talked to a solar company about making my home energy producing.
Producing more energy than a house consumes is very easy for some homes and essentially impossible for others. Most obviously, people in climates without a lot of sunlight will have a much more difficult time producing energy than people in sunnier climates. Even forgetting about that fact, the direction a house is facing, trees in the area, and angle of the roofline all dramatically impact the level of solar production that can be expected from a house.
Related: Saudi Price War Strategy May Blow Up In Their Face
Energy producing homes rely on creating large amounts of solar energy, while consuming relatively little energy. The consumption side of that equation is fairly straightforward and uncontroversial – having thick insulation and energy saving light bulbs are not generally a major inconvenience for most people. Unfortunately, producing solar energy requires a trade-off. For example, an individual could always produce more solar power by filling not only their roof with solar panels, but also their front yard, yet very few people want to give up their lawn for solar arrays.
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Wind May Win The Renewable Race – But At What Price?
Wind May Win The Renewable Race – But At What Price?
You only need to drive the long, lonely stretches of highway in west Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, Colorado or even parts of California to know that wind farms have become prolific across America. In fact, there are over 48,000 wind turbines spinning their blades in at least 39 states including Alaska, Hawaii and even in Puerto Rico.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released an Executive Summary on wind last week, including some interesting, but possibly ambitious, projections. According to the DOE, wind has become the fastest-growing source of alternative energy since 2000. In 2008, the report claims, wind provided just 1.5% of the nation’s total electricity needs. That jumped to 4.5-percent by 2013, a number mostly validated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The DOE predicts wind power will jump to 10-percent by the end of the decade, then 20-percent by 2030 and possibly as high as 35-percent by 2050. TheAmerican Wind Energy Association agrees that a 20-percent market penetration is possible in fifteen years. On a global perspective, ExxonMobil, in their 2014 Energy Outlook to 2040 is not quite as optimistic, forecasting that fossil fuels will still provide approximately 70-percent of the world’s energy demand in twenty-five years, with wind and solar combined only generating approximately 4-percent of global demand.
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Scotland’s Wind Dream May Turn Into A Nightmare
Scotland’s Wind Dream May Turn Into A Nightmare
I last looked into the details and consequences of Scottish energy policy in the pre-referendum post Scotch on the ROCs. The expansion of Scottish renewables is progressing at breakneck speed and the purpose of this post is to update on where we are and where we are heading whether anyone likes it or not (Figure 1). Objections to wind power normally come from rural dwelling country folks whose lives are impacted by the construction of wind turbine power stations around them. My objections tend to be rooted more in the raison d’être for renewables (CO2 reduction), their cost, grid reliability and gross environmental impact. One issue I want to draw attention to is the vast electricity surplus that Scotland will produce on windy days in the years ahead. That surplus has to be paid for. Where will it go and how will it be used?
Figure 1 The rapidly changing face of electricity generation in Scotland. Wind power seems destined to grow from virtually nothing in 2010 to 15.8 GW come 2020. Maximum power demand in Scotland is 6 GW (red line).
This post was prompted by a couple of emails in the wake of my recent post onWWF Masters of Spin that brought my attention to two short reports prepared by Professor (emeritus) Jack Ponton that describe how operational and consented wind farms will already take Scotland beyond its 2020 target. The small pdfs can be downloaded here and here and the two key charts are reproduced below.
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