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Gold Analyst Warns of Leverage: “There Are About 325 Paper Ounces For Every Physical Ounce Backing It”

Gold Analyst Warns of Leverage: “There Are About 325 Paper Ounces For Every Physical Ounce Backing It”

paper-and-real-gold

Back in September Zero Hedgereported that something snapped in the COMEX market and all indicators suggest there was a relentless outflow in registered gold. At that time there were about 202,054 ounces of gold available for delivery. To put that into perspective, Craig Hemke of TF Metals Report points out that just earlier this year there were nearly one million registered ounces available.

What this likely means is that someone, somewhere is requesting that their paper holdings be converted into deliverable physical gold. All the while many a mainstream pundit has declared that gold is nothing but a relic of times past. Yet, despite its purported unpopularity, since the last time the COMEX snapped in September even more registered gold has disappeared.

As of December, notes Hemke in his latest interview with Crush The Street, we’ve hit an all-time low in registered physical metal at the COMEX which has in turn led to a massive amount of leverage.

We’re at an all time low of about 120,000 [ounces of registered holdings].

But yet the total open interest- the amount of paper contracts based upon that declining amount of physical metal – has stayed the same.

Now, there’s about 325 paper ounces for every one physical ounce backing it. In the past that number was always around 10-to-1 or 20-to-1.

It’s another one of these data points that we follow that seems to indicate a global physical tightness.

In the full interview Hemke explains what this means for the gold market, as well as why the leverage in COMEX precious metals is significantly different than stock markets:


(Watch At Youtube)

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

About 38% of All the Comex Gold in Hong Kong Left the Warehouses Yesterday

About 38% of All the Comex Gold in Hong Kong Left the Warehouses Yesterday

Perhaps it went out for some dim sum.  TTFN, but be right back!

Roughly 21 tonnes, or 685,652 troy ounces of gold in .999 fine kilo bars, was withdrawn, net of a small deposit of 27,328 ounces, from the Brinks warehouse in Hong Kong yesterday.

To put that into some perspective, that is the same amount of all gold in the entire JPM warehouse in the US.

Now compared to the Comex US, in which very little gold bullion actually changes hands or goes anywhere, that is a huge number.  But Hong Kong is typically seeing large inflows and outflows of gold.  Because that is how the precious metals market has been manifesting in Asia since about 2007: not with endless chains of paper just changing hands in a grand game of liar’s poker, but with the physical exchange of bullion.

And most of that bullion leaves the warehouse and does not come right back, as Koos Jansen has explained repeatedly about the operations on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.  It is being accumulated on the mainland, and this probably does not include the PBOC official purchases.

The point of this is that the price discovery in New York is becoming increasingly distinct from the actual physical supply and demand flows of bullion which are taking place in Asia.  As I have said, gold is ‘trading like a modern currency’ without respect to its nature as a commodity bound by physical supply.  The Fed et al. can print money, but they cannot print bullion.  That is the point of it.

And that is a potentially dangerous development, especially with respect to a commodity that is being traded at a leverage in excess of 200:1.  And in the face of shrinking inventories of gold available for delivery at current prices in both New York and London….click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Buy Gold While You Still Can!

Buy Gold While You Still Can!

An important update on the supply of physical gold

One of our long-running themes here is that the truly historic and massive flows of gold from West to East is (someday) going to stop, for the simple reason that there will be no more physical bullion left to move.

It’s just a basic supply vs. demand issue.  At current rates of flow, sooner or later the West will entirely run out of physical gold to sell to China and India.  Although long before that hard limit, we suspect that the remaining holders of gold in the West will cease their willingness to part with their gold.

So the date at which “the West runs out of gold to sell” is somewhere between now and whenever the last willing Western seller parts with their last ounce.  As each day passes, we get closer and closer to that fateful moment.

This report centers on preponderance of fascinating data revealing the extent of the West’s massive dis-hoarding of physical gold, for the first time, begins to allow us to start estimating the range of end-dates for the flow to the East.

Here’s the punchline: there’s an enormous and growing disconnect between the cash and physical markets for gold. This is exactly what we would expect to precede a major market-shaking event based on a physical gold shortage.

Stopping the Flows

There are only two outcomes that will stop the process of Western gold flowing East, one illegitimate and the other legitimate.

  1. It becomes illegal to sell gold.  This is the favored approach of central planners who prefer to force change by dictate rather than via free markets and free will.   Unfortunately, this strain of political intervention is dominant in the West, particularly in the US and EU.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Gold – Follow the Yellow Brick Road?

Gold – Follow the Yellow Brick Road?

The following is a veritable tour de force by Nicole Foss on the value of gold in a crashing economy, for different people in different circumstances.

Nicole Foss: In light of the rapidly-propagating loss of confidence, and consequent shift to deflation, with falling prices across the board as a result, it is appropriate to review our stance on gold. The yellow metal is often perceived as a panacea – a safe haven guarding against all manner of potential financial disruption. It has long been our stance at the Automatic Earth that this is far too simplistic a position to take. We live in a complex world for which there are no simple one-dimensional solutions. It is important to distinguish between the markets for paper gold and for physical gold, and to understand the risks inherent in gold ownership in order to manage them. As we wrote back in 2009:

Firstly, the goldbugs are right that physical gold is real money (unlike paper gold, which is just another Ponzi scheme). It has held its value for thousands of years and will continue to do so over the long term. However, that does not mean that gold prices cannot fall or that purchasing gold now is the right way for everyone to preserve capital….People’s circumstances are different. Those circumstances determine their freedom of action, both now and in the future.

Bubble Dynamics

It is our view that (paper) gold has been in a bubble which peaked in 2011, along with the rest of the commodity complex. It has been subjected to the same dynamic as other commodities, which have collectively lost touch with their own fundamentals as they have become increasingly over-financialized. Financialization moves the dynamics into the virtual world, while simultaneously subjecting them to perverse incentives. Substantial price movements having at best a tenuous connection with actual supply and demand are the result.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

 

Something Just Snapped At The Comex (Updated)

Something Just Snapped At The Comex (Updated)

Update: Earlier today, we said that we would “keep a close eye on today’s Comex update to see if JPM reverses this “adjustment” and adds at least a few more tons of deliverable gold to its vault.” Moments ago we got the daily update form the Comex and not only did JPM not reverse its registered to eligible adjustment, but more curiously, the second largest vault, that of Scotia Mocatta (behind only HSBC) saw a comparable adjustment, whereby 16,644 ounces of gold, or about half a ton, and 14% of its vault total, were adjusted away from “registered” and into the “eliglble” category.

This means that the already record low total registered holding across the Comex system, declined once again this time by 8.3% and hit a new all time low of 185,315, or less than 6 tons.

This means that what was already a record dilution factor, with over 200 ounces of paper gold claims for every ounce of deliverable gold, just soared even more, and following today’s 8% drop, there is now a unprecedented 228 ounces of paper claims for every ounce of deliverable “registered” gold.

For those who missed the full story from earlier today, please read on.

 

* * *

Just over one month ago, when looking at the latest changes in registered gold held at the Comex ,we were stunned not only by the collapse in this series to a record low of just over 350k ounces or barely over 10 tons, but also by the surge in “gold coverage”, or the amount of paper gold claims on physical gold, which exploded to a record high 124 per ounce.

 

 

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

 

Comex On The Edge? Paper Gold “Dilution” Hits A Record 124 For Every Ounce Of Physical

Comex On The Edge? Paper Gold “Dilution” Hits A Record 124 For Every Ounce Of Physical

Over the weekend, we got what was merely the latest confirmation that when it comes to sliding gold prices, consumer of physical gold just can’t get enough. As the Times of India reported over the weekend, India’s gold imports shot up by about 61 per cent to 155 tonnes in the first two months of the current fiscal “due to weak prices globally and the easing of restrictions by the Reserve Bank. In April-May of the last fiscal, gold imports had aggregated about 96 tonnes, an official said.”

This follows confirmations previously that with the price of gold sliding, physical demand has been through the roof, case in point: “US Mint Sells Most Physical Gold In Two Years On Same Day Gold Price Hits Five Year Low“, “Gold Bullion Demand Surges – Perth Mint and U.S. Mint Cannot Meet Demand“, “Gold Tumbles Despite UK Mint Seeing Europeans Rush To Buy Bullion” and so on. Indicatively, as of Friday, the US Mint had sold 170,000 ounces of gold bullion in July: the fifth highest on record, and we expect today’s month-end update to push that number even higher.

But while the dislocation between demand for physical and the price of paper gold has been extensively discussed here over the years, most recently in “Gold And The Silver Stand-Off: Is The Selling Of Paper Gold And Silver Finally Ending?”, something unexpected happened at the CME on Friday afternoon which may be the most important observation yet.

Recall that in the middle of 2013, in an extensive series of articles, we covered what was then a complete collapse in Comex vaulted holding of registered (i.e., deliverable) gold.  At the time the culprit was JPM, where for some still unexplained reason, the gold held in the newest Comex’ vault plunged by nearly 2 million ounces in just six short months.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Perth Mint and U.S. Mint Cannot Meet Demand as Gold Bullion Demand Surges

Perth Mint and U.S. Mint Cannot Meet Demand as Gold Bullion Demand Surges

– Perth Mint sees surge in demand and cannot keep up with demand
– “Our biggest restriction is the amount of unrefined gold we’re getting in from producers”
– Very high demand for Perth Mint coins, bars coming from Asia, U.S. and Europe
– U.S. Mint sees highest sales of gold coins in over 2 years
– U.S. Mint restrictions on silver coins due to very high demand
– Gold sentiment has moved from despondency to depression (see chart)
– Current negative sentiment despite strong demand is good contrarian indicator

31-07-2015_1
Perth Mint Gold Bar (1 kilo)

Depressed prices have led to the usual market response, a surge in physical demand for coins and bars globally.

This is confirmed in conversations we have had with our refiner and mint partners in recent days. There are growing shortages of supply of small coins and bars. This is resulting in delays in receiving bullion and indeed to rising premiums.

Asian gold demand picked up this week keeping premiums robust and slightly higher in the world’s top gold buying regions.

Treasurer for the Perth Mint, Nigel Moffatt has said that the mint has seen a surge in demand for physical gold since the price dropped below $1,100 per ounce.

In an interview on Bloomberg’s “First Up” show he said “Our biggest restriction is the amount of unrefined gold we’re getting in from producers”, adding, “everything we get in is going straight out the door as soon as we refine it.”

Moffatt says that the Perth Mint is seeing strong demand for kilo bars which go to Asia – particularly India, China and now Thailand – adding that traditional buyers in Asia tend to “stock up” on gold when the price falls.

There is also a huge demand for coins from individual buyers in the U.S. and Europe:

Gold “is going straight out the door as soon as we can find it.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Gold’s Two Stories: Paper Markets Collapse… While The Retail Public Buys At A Record Pace

Gold’s Two Stories: Paper Markets Collapse… While The Retail Public Buys At A Record Pace

paper-and-real-goldWe’ve seen some significant swings in precious metals over the last several years and if we are to believe the paper spot prices and recent value of mining shares, one would think that gold and silver are on their last leg. Last weekend precious metals took a massive hit to the downside, sending shock waves throughout the industry. But was the move really representative of what’s happening in precious metals markets around the world? Or, is there an effort by large financial institutions to keep prices suppressed? In an open letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission First Mining FinanceCEO Keith Neumeyer argues that real producers and consumers don’t appear to be represented by the purported billion dollar moves on paper trading exchanges.

With China recently revealing that they have added some 600 tons of gold to their stockpiles and the U.S. mint having suspended sales of Silver Eagles due to extremely high demand in early July, how is it possible that prices are crashing?

As noted in Mike Gleason’s Weekly Market Wrap at Money Metals Exchange, while it appears that gold is currently one of the world’s most hated assets, the retail public continues to buy at a record pace:

The paper market is telling one story. But the actual physical bullion market is telling quite another.

The U.S. Mint has sold over 100,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins so far in July. That’s the highest monthly demand volume registered since April 2013. And that’s just as of this week. There’s still another week left to go before the final sales tally for Gold Eagles comes in for the month of July. It could be one for the record books with 109,000 1-ounce Gold Eagles sold — with bargain hunters purchasing 6% of the U.S. Mint’s production from Money Metals Exchange.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Why Central Banks Hate Physical, Love “Earmarked” Gold, And What Is The Difference

Why Central Banks Hate Physical, Love “Earmarked” Gold, And What Is The Difference

Several days ago we showed the dramatic conclusion of what happened to Czechoslovakia’s gold which had been placed at the Bank of England for safekeeping days after Germany annexed the central European republic ahead of the start of World War II. We hate the spoil the punchline for those who haven’t read the post yet, but the her it is: it was gone; it was all gone.

And all of this happened with the explicit assistance of the Bank of International Settlements which was formed in 1930 to promote the free flow of capital and global economic growth. Instead, time and again, what the BIS has proven its only mission to be, is to facilitate the spread of intangible assets and fiat currencies while it quietly confiscates, sequesters and aggregates (for a select group of individuals) he world’s physical assets. Mostly gold.

In fact, until the advent of the BIS, gold held by central banks came in one version. Physical.

It was only after the BIS arrived on the scene did gold’s macabre doppelganger, so-called paper, registered or “earmarked“, gold emerge for the first time.

Courtesy of Adam LeBor’s book exposing the history and inner workings of the BIS, “The Shadowy History of the Secret Bank that Runs the World“, below is a brief story of how earmarked gold came into being.

 

* * *

The Czechoslovak gold affair also highlighted how the bank’s increasingly sophisticated gold operations were growing in reach and importance. The BIS’s gold trades were a primitive forerunner of today’s globalized economy where vast sums instantly fly back and forth at the touch of a keyboard. The technology available in the 1930s was far more primitive, but the principle of buying and selling assets sight unseen and without taking physical possession is the same.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

 

Gold Futures Market Used For Fraud

Gold Futures Market Used For Fraud

The Comex is a complete fraud.

It’s one of the biggest Ponzi schemes in history.

With China and Viet Nam (the latter being a major gold importing country) now closed until next Wednesday in observance of their Lunar New Year, the bullion banks have engaged in a major attempt to drive the price of gold lower.    Yesterday (Tuesday) 99,000 gold contracts  – 9.9 million ounces or 287 tonnes – were sold into the market between 9 a.m and 11 a.m. EST, which had the effect of driving the price of gold down over $26.  To put this into context, a total of 179,833 contracts traded between 6 p.m. Monday and 5 p.m. Tues. The entire daily trading period is 23 hours. But 55% of yesterday’s total trading volume – the volume used to slam gold – was traded in a two-hour window of NY trading.

Think about it this way:  in that two-hour window, 35 days worth of daily global gold mine production traded in the form of paper gold.  The open interest expanded by 5,290 contracts, which translates into just over 15 tonnes of gold.  The total amount of gold available for delivery – the “registered” account gold – is 804.9k ounces, or 23 tonnes.  In just one day, the bullion banks (JP Morgan, HSBC and Scotia) sold forward 65% of the entire stock of deliverable gold on the Comex. And that’s if you really believe the unaudited bank reports which produce the gold warehouse stock reports.  I do not.

Gold was raided again today (Wednesday, Feb 18) – again at 11:00 a.m. EST. This time gold was slammed another $9 in the space of 30 minutes, most of it in the first seven minutes. Today 18,000 April gold contracts traded in the 30 minute space, representing 24% of the total volume in the April gold contract up to that point since 6:00 p.m EST the previous evening. This is 52 tonnes of paper gold – more than twice the amount of gold in Comex vaults available for delivery.

 

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Diversify With “Physical Precious Metals Stored Outside The U.S.” – Faber – GoldCore United States

Diversify With “Physical Precious Metals Stored Outside The U.S.” – Faber – GoldCore United States.

Dr Marc Faber, respected economic historian and author of the respected monthly newsletter, the ‘Gloom, Boom and Doom Report’,has warned that 2015 is set to be very volatile, urged international diversification and owning “physical precious metals stored outside the U.S.”

In another insightful and witty interview with Bloomberg Television’sIn the Loop, with Betty Liu, Erik Schatzker and Brendan Greeley, the ever charming and affable Dr. Marc Faber reaffirmed his long-standing preference for investing in emerging eastern economies, his lack of faith in the dollar and advised Americans to own gold.

Faber fails to recommend a single U.S. stock in 2015 and when asked whether recent events in Greece were a buy or sell signal, Faber began by pointing out that persistent intervention by central banks into markets had made making predictions far more complicated.

Some commodities have soared in the last six months, wheat has doubled, while the price of oil and natural gas had collapsed indicating great volatility. Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg had been consistently bearish on bonds for years, until this year since treasuries outperformed the S&P in 2014.

Hedge funds generally only generated returns of around 1%. In light of these discrepancies and central-bank induced distortions to the market, Faber emphasises the need for real diversification.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

It Wasn’t The Swiss: Continuing Plunge In GOFO Means No Easing Of Worst Gold Shortage In Over A Decade | Zero Hedge

It Wasn’t The Swiss: Continuing Plunge In GOFO Means No Easing Of Worst Gold Shortage In Over A Decade | Zero Hedge.

Yesterday, when we commented on what was largely a pre-determined outcome of the Swiss gold referendum, we said that there still “is the question of what happens to the tension in the gold swap market: as noted last week, the 1 Month GOFO rate had tumbled to the most negative in over a decade. It was not clear if this collateral gold squeeze was the result of Swiss referendum overhang or due to other reasons. The market’s reaction on Monday should answer those questions.”

Well, a few hours ago we got the GOFO update for the “day after” and the answer is clear: it wasn’t fear of the Swiss referendum after all because the 1 Month GOFO just crashed even deeper into negative territory with the entire curve through 6M now red, and with 12 month GOFO just 0.6 bps away from negative for the first time. At this rate, tomorrow’s update will suggest that big institutions expect the gold swap shortage to persist through the end of 2015!

Also, judging by the gold reaction, which is about $50 from the overnight lows, someone else appears to have noticed that the rather shocking shortage of synthetic gold among institutions, which is finally seeping through into that whole “price discovery” process, where supply and demand actually matter.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Paper Gold” and Its Effect on the Gold Price | Casey Research

“Paper Gold” and Its Effect on the Gold Price | Casey Research.

Gold dropped to new lows of $1,130 per ounce last week. This is surprising because it doesn’t square with the fundamentals. China and India continue to exert strong demand on gold, and interest in bullion coins remains high.

I explained in my October article in The Casey Report that the Comex futures market structure allows a few big banks to supply gold to keep its price contained. I call the gold futures market the “paper gold” market because very little gold actually changes hands. $360 billion of paper gold is traded per month, but only $279 million of physical gold is delivered. That’s a 1,000-to-1 ratio:

Market Statistics for the 100-oz Gold Futures Contract on Comex
Value ($M)
Monthly volume (Paper Trade) $360,000
Open Interest All Contracts $45,600
Warehouse-Registered Gold (oz) $1,140
Physical Delivery per Month $279
House Account Net Delivery, monthly $41

We know that huge orders for paper gold can move the price by $20 in a second. These orders often exceed the CME stated limit of 6,000 contracts. Here’s a close view from October 31, when the sale of 2,365 contracts caused the gold price to plummet and forced the exchange to close for 20 seconds:

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Olduvai IV: Courage
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Olduvai II: Exodus
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