{"id":9379,"date":"2015-06-24T06:43:29","date_gmt":"2015-06-24T11:43:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=9379"},"modified":"2015-06-24T06:43:29","modified_gmt":"2015-06-24T11:43:29","slug":"bp-data-suggests-we-are-reaching-peak-energy-demand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=9379","title":{"rendered":"BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy Demand"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/ourfiniteworld.com\/2015\/06\/23\/bp-data-suggests-we-are-reaching-peak-energy-demand\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy\u00a0Demand<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Some people talk about peak energy (or oil) supply. They expect high prices and more demand than supply.\u00a0Other people talk about energy demand hitting a peak many years from now, perhaps when most of us have electric cars.<\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Neither of these views is correct. The real situation is that\u00a0<em>we right now seem to be reaching peak energy demand through low commodity prices<\/em>. I see evidence of this in the historical energy data recently updated by BP (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bp.com\/en\/global\/corporate\/about-bp\/energy-economics\/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html\">BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015<\/a>). Of course,<\/p>\n<p>Growth in world energy consumption is clearly slowing. In fact, growth in energy consumption was only 0.9% in 2014. This is far below the 2.3% growth we would expect, based on recent past patterns. In fact, energy consumption in 2012 and 2013 also grew at lower than the expected 2.3% growth rate (2012 \u2013 1.4%; 2013 \u2013 1.8%).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2015\/06\/world-energy-consumption-by-part-of-world-2014.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39908\" src=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2015\/06\/world-energy-consumption-by-part-of-world-2014.png?w=640&amp;h=385\" alt=\"Figure 1- Resource consumption by part of the world. Canada etc. grouping also includes Norway, Australia, and South Africa. Based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 data.\" width=\"640\" height=\"385\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Recently, I wrote that economic growth eventually runs into limits. The symptoms we should expect are similar to the patterns we have been seeing recently (<a href=\"http:\/\/ourfiniteworld.com\/2015\/05\/06\/why-we-have-an-oversupply-of-almost-everything-oil-labor-capital-etc\/\">Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital,\u00a0etc.)<\/a>).\u00a0It seems to me that the patterns in BP\u2019s new data are also of the kind that we would expect to be seeing, if we are hitting limits that are causing low commodity prices.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-style-span\">One of our underlying problems is that energy costs that have risen faster than most worker\u2019s wages since 2000. Another underlying problem has to do with globalization. Globalization provides a temporary benefit. In the last 20 years, we greatly ramped up globalization, but we are now losing the temporary benefit globalization brings. We find we again need to deal with the limits of a finite world and the constraints such a world places on growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy\u00a0Demand Some people talk about peak energy (or oil) supply. They expect high prices and more demand than supply.\u00a0Other people talk about energy demand hitting a peak many years from now, perhaps when most of us have electric cars. Neither of these views is correct. The real situation [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[2272,2268,1720,6344,1233,370,485,589,595,596,1232,6655,6656],"class_list":["post-9379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-bp","tag-british-petroleum","tag-commodity-prices","tag-energy-demand","tag-gail-tverberg","tag-globalization","tag-limits-to-growth","tag-oil-demand","tag-oil-production","tag-oil-supply","tag-our-finite-world","tag-peak-energy-demand","tag-world-energy-consumption"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9379","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9379"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9379\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9380,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9379\/revisions\/9380"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9379"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9379"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9379"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}