{"id":9096,"date":"2015-06-14T07:24:54","date_gmt":"2015-06-14T12:24:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=9096"},"modified":"2015-06-14T07:24:54","modified_gmt":"2015-06-14T12:24:54","slug":"end-of-the-line-china-and-germany-look-ready-to-pop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=9096","title":{"rendered":"End of the Line! China and Germany Look Ready to Pop"},"content":{"rendered":"

End of the Line! China and Germany Look Ready to Pop<\/a><\/h3>\n

The U.S. stock market has finally hit a speed bump after more than six years of a Fed- and QE-driven rally. The S&P 500 is up 232% since March of 2009 despite this unprecedented stimulus in the feeblest economic recovery in history.<\/p>\n

But since late December 2014, U.S. stocks have gone nowhere as investors face some growing realities.<\/p>\n

GDP, retail sales, production and exports are slowing.<\/p>\n

The dollar\u2019s sharp rise in recent years has crushed global exports.<\/p>\n

Long term interest rates are rising consistently\u2026 what I call the beginning of the end of stimulus policies designed to keep rates low forever.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in just six months Germany saw its key stock market, the DAX, rise nearly 50% from mid-October into early April.<\/p>\n

Germany\u2019s bubble has shot up 245% since March 2009 \u2014 greater than the U.S., despite its slower economy.<\/p>\n

It won\u2019t last!<\/p>\n

\"DAX<\/a><\/p>\n

As I\u2019ve explained many times<\/a>, starting last year Germany has the worst demographic trends of any country in the world lasting through 2022. It\u2019s even worse than Japan\u2019s demographic cliff in the 1990s!<\/p>\n

There\u2019s one reason Germany has held up as well as it has in the last year: the euro.<\/p>\n

When the euro falls, German exports soar. Between April 2014 and March 2015 the euro fell 25%. Its long-term peak was in July 2008 at 1.60 dollars. It hit 1.05 in March \u2014 34.5% lower!<\/p>\n

Consider that Germany exports 50% of its GDP. That\u2019s one of the highest ratios in the world.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

End of the Line! China and Germany Look Ready to Pop The U.S. stock market has finally hit a speed bump after more than six years of a Fed- and QE-driven rally. The S&P 500 is up 232% since March of 2009 despite this unprecedented stimulus in the feeblest economic recovery in history. But since […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[130,194,353,359,661,662,670,3571,1138,6364],"class_list":["post-9096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-china","tag-dax","tag-gdp","tag-germany","tag-qe","tag-quantitative-easing","tag-recovery","tag-retail-sales","tag-stock-market","tag-us-stocks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9096","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9096"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9096\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9097,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9096\/revisions\/9097"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9096"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9096"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9096"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}