{"id":7859,"date":"2015-05-05T06:28:23","date_gmt":"2015-05-05T11:28:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=7859"},"modified":"2015-05-05T06:28:23","modified_gmt":"2015-05-05T11:28:23","slug":"changes-to-total-global-credit-affects-the-oil-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=7859","title":{"rendered":"Changes to Total Global Credit Affects The Oil Price"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 id=\"post-1017\"><a href=\"http:\/\/fractionalflow.com\/2015\/05\/03\/changes-to-total-global-debt-affects-the-oil-price\/\" target=\"_blank\">Changes to Total Global Credit Affects The Oil\u00a0Price<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>In some posts on Fractional Flow I have presented some of my explorations of any relations between the oil price, changes to global total credit\/debt and interest rates. My objective has been to gain and share some of my insights of how I see the economic undertows that also influences the price formation for crude oil.<\/p>\n<p>I have earlier asserted;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Any forecasts of oil (and gas) demand\/supplies and oil price trajectories are\u00a0<\/strong><strong>NOT<\/strong><strong>\u00a0very helpful if they do not incorporate forecasts for changes to total global credit\/debt, interest rates and developments to consumers\u2019\/societies\u2019 affordability.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In this post I present results from an analysis of developments to the annual changes in total debt in the private, non financial sector of some Advanced Economies (AE\u2019s), and 5 Emerging Economies (EME\u2019s) from Q1 2000 and as of Q3 2014 with data from the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bis.org\/statistics\/credtopriv.htm\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Bank for International Settlements<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0(BIS in Basel, Switzerland).<\/p>\n<p>The AE\u2019s are: Euro area, Japan and the US.<\/p>\n<p>The 5 EME\u2019s are: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Thailand which in the post are collectively referred to as \u201cThe 5 EME\u2019s\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Year over year (YOY) changes in total private debt for the analyzed economies were juxtaposed with YOY changes in total petroleum consumption in these based upon data from\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bp.com\/en\/global\/corporate\/about-bp\/energy-economics\/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>BP Statistical Review 2014<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><em>As the AE\u2019s slowed growth in, and\/or deleveraged their total private debt after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008\/2009, the EME\u2019s continued their strong growth in total private debt and China accelerated it significantly in 2009.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><em>The AE\u2019s petroleum consumption declined noticeably as from 2007, resulting from the combination of high oil prices and tepid debt growth and\/or deleveraging.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><em>The EME\u2019s remained defiant to high oil prices and continued their strong growth in petroleum consumption, which likely was made possible by strong growth in total private debt.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Demand remains what the consumers can pay for!<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Changes to Total Global Credit Affects The Oil\u00a0Price In some posts on Fractional Flow I have presented some of my explorations of any relations between the oil price, changes to global total credit\/debt and interest rates. My objective has been to gain and share some of my insights of how I see the economic undertows [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[175,195,240,5195,391,588,1039,592,595,596],"class_list":["post-7859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-credit","tag-debt","tag-economic-growth","tag-global-credit","tag-growth","tag-oil","tag-oil-consumption","tag-oil-price","tag-oil-production","tag-oil-supply"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7859"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7859\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7860,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7859\/revisions\/7860"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}