{"id":780,"date":"2014-10-28T11:22:50","date_gmt":"2014-10-28T15:22:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=780"},"modified":"2014-10-28T11:22:50","modified_gmt":"2014-10-28T15:22:50","slug":"cluborlov-peak-empire-take-two","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=780","title":{"rendered":"ClubOrlov: Peak Empire, Take Two"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/cluborlov.blogspot.ca\/2014\/10\/peak-empire-take-two.html\">ClubOrlov: Peak Empire, Take Two<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-style-span\" style=\"color: #41485e; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; line-height: 20px;\">Based on the lessons of history, all empires collapse eventually; thus, the probability that the US empire will collapse can be set at 100% with a great deal of confidence. The question is, When? (Everyone keeps asking that annoying question.) Of course, all you have to do is leave the US, go some place that isn&#8217;t plugged into the US economy in non-optional ways, and you won\u2019t have to worry about this question too much. Some people have made guesses but, as far as I can tell, no one has come up with viable methodology for calculating the date. In order to provide a remedy for this serious shortcoming in collapse theory, I once tried to outline a method for figuring it out in an article titled \u201c<a style=\"color: #485e41; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"http:\/\/cluborlov.blogspot.com.au\/2010\/12\/peak-empire.html\" target=\"_blank\">Peak Empire<\/a>,\u201d which was based on Joseph Tainter\u2019s theory of diminishing returns on complexity\u2014or diminishing returns on empire. It\u2019s a perfect problem for differential calculus, and all those microeconomics students who are busy calculating marginal cost vs. marginal revenue, so that they can look for work in the soon-to-be-defunct shale gas industry, might take it up, to put their math talents to better use. In the meantime, here is an update, and a revised estimate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ClubOrlov: Peak Empire, Take Two. Based on the lessons of history, all empires collapse eventually; thus, the probability that the US empire will collapse can be set at 100% with a great deal of confidence. The question is, When? (Everyone keeps asking that annoying question.) Of course, all you have to do is leave the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,7],"tags":[139,259,294,616],"class_list":["post-780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geopolitics","category-survival-2","tag-civilization","tag-empire","tag-fall-of-civilization","tag-peak-empire"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=780"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/780\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}