{"id":7757,"date":"2015-05-02T06:33:30","date_gmt":"2015-05-02T11:33:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=7757"},"modified":"2015-05-02T06:33:30","modified_gmt":"2015-05-02T11:33:30","slug":"we-just-broke-2008%e2%80%b2s-record-for-the-fastest-economic-unraveling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=7757","title":{"rendered":"We Just Broke 2008\u2032s Record for the Fastest Economic Unraveling!"},"content":{"rendered":"

We Just Broke 2008\u2032s Record for the Fastest Economic Unraveling!<\/a><\/h3>\n

In my\u00a0last piece<\/a>\u00a0I provided a technical analysis that signaled we are entering the first stage of a bursting bubble that we\u2019ll call the Fed Bubble.\u00a0 Now while I do believe technicals provide good insight to the economic landscape I see them as a necessary rather sufficient qualifier.\u00a0 In order to be truly confident that our technicals are providing an accurate story we need to understand the fundamentals behind the charts, as we often find the engine light comes on due to a loose wire rather than a problem with the engine.<\/p>\n

The final Q1 GDP revision was just released and we saw that GDP has again missed expectations by such a large margin that 2015 is another write off for a 3% growth year.\u00a0 Almost comically we heard the same excuses we got last year.\u00a0 \u201cWeather was wintery and next year is going to be the turnaround year\u201d.\u00a0 So in order to explain to these supposed economic and market \u2018experts\u2019 who seem wholly incapable of understanding economic and market forces with any sense of accuracy, let\u2019s run through a few fundamentals.<\/p>\n

I want to hone in on the category of consumer spending that is first to go away so that we may capture the first signals of a consumer spending pull back.\u00a0 A good proxy for this is the Johnson Redbook Chain Store yoy sales.\u00a0 This captures the consumer spending taking place at large department stores (Macy\u2019s, Kohls, Walmart, Kmart, etc).\u00a0 This is going to be where the real discretionary retail spending takes place, as in do I have enough space on my credit card for that sassy blue dress and groceries or just groceries?\u00a0 And don\u2019t think that is just a theatrical example.\u00a0 I remember the days of asking myself those very same questions (ok maybe not the blue dress but you get the idea).\u00a0 That is just real life here in the US (and Canada for that matter).<\/span><\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We Just Broke 2008\u2032s Record for the Fastest Economic Unraveling! In my\u00a0last piece\u00a0I provided a technical analysis that signaled we are entering the first stage of a bursting bubble that we\u2019ll call the Fed Bubble.\u00a0 Now while I do believe technicals provide good insight to the economic landscape I see them as a necessary rather […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1806,175,195,4899,240,303,5107,305,353,5106],"class_list":["post-7757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bubble","tag-credit","tag-debt","tag-economic-bubble","tag-economic-growth","tag-fed","tag-fed-bubble","tag-federal-reserve","tag-gdp","tag-q1"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7757"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7757\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7758,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7757\/revisions\/7758"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}