{"id":7728,"date":"2015-05-01T06:02:58","date_gmt":"2015-05-01T11:02:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=7728"},"modified":"2015-05-01T06:02:58","modified_gmt":"2015-05-01T11:02:58","slug":"the-dwindling-us-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=7728","title":{"rendered":"The Dwindling US Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/www.paulcraigroberts.org\/2015\/04\/29\/dwindling-us-economy-paul-craig-roberts\/\" target=\"_blank\">The Dwindling US Economy<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>The announcement today (April 29) of a barely positive GDP first quarter 2015 growth rate of 0.2 percent (two-tenths of one percent) is an intentional exaggeration.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s GDP report is the \u201cadvance estimate.\u201d There will be two revisions, with the first occurring in one month on May 29.<\/p>\n<p>Although the \u201cconsensus estimate,\u201d which is Wall Street\u2019s estimate, declined dramatically over the past month, the consensus estimate was for 1.0 percent.<\/p>\n<p>The BEA\u2019s advance estimate bears the burden of impact on financial markets even though it is the least reliable estimate. Subsequent revisions receive much less attention. Because of its market impact, the advance estimate is fudged by the Bureau of Economic Affairs (BEA) in order not to upset financial markets keyed to the consensus forecast.<\/p>\n<p>All indications are that the first quarter experienced negative GDP growth, that is, a decline from the previous quarter. However, if BEA reported a negative GDP when the financial markets were relying on positive real growth, the government\u2019s Plunge Protection Team might be unable to prevent a substantial market decline.<\/p>\n<p>Therefore, the BEA in its advance estimate reported a barely positive result that kept GDP out of negative territory. This gives financial markets a month to undergo an orderly reduction prior to the first and then second revisions of the advance estimate, or simply to forget the poor performance altogether until the second quarter advance estimate.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Dwindling US Economy The announcement today (April 29) of a barely positive GDP first quarter 2015 growth rate of 0.2 percent (two-tenths of one percent) is an intentional exaggeration. Today\u2019s GDP report is the \u201cadvance estimate.\u201d There will be two revisions, with the first occurring in one month on May 29. Although the \u201cconsensus [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2213,5069,1752,246,353,4549,841,860],"class_list":["post-7728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bea","tag-bureau-of-economic-affairs","tag-economic-contraction","tag-economy","tag-gdp","tag-gross-domestic-product","tag-us-economy","tag-wall-street"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7728"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7728\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7729,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7728\/revisions\/7729"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}