{"id":7522,"date":"2015-04-23T11:40:43","date_gmt":"2015-04-23T16:40:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=7522"},"modified":"2015-04-23T11:40:43","modified_gmt":"2015-04-23T16:40:43","slug":"overview-of-our-energy-modeling-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=7522","title":{"rendered":"Overview of Our Energy Modeling Problem"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/ourfiniteworld.com\/2015\/04\/23\/overview-of-our-energy-modeling-problem\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Overview of Our Energy Modeling\u00a0Problem<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>We live in a world with limits, yet our economy needs growth. How can we expect this scenario to play out? My view is that this problem will play out as a fairly near-term financial problem, with low oil prices leading to a fall in oil production. But not everyone comes to this conclusion. What were the views of early researchers? How do my views differ?<\/p>\n<p>In my post today, I plan to discuss the first lecture I gave to a group of college students in Beijing. A PDF of it can be found here:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/06\/1-overview-of-energy-modeling-problem-v2-pptx.pdf\">1. Overview of Energy Modeling Problem<\/a>. A MP4 video is available as well on my\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/ourfiniteworld.com\/presentationspodcasts\/\">Presentations\/Podcasts Page<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Many Limits in a Finite World<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We live in a world with limits. These limits are not just energy limits; they come in many different forms:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2015\/04\/2-we-are-reaching-limits-in-many-ways.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-39751\" src=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2015\/04\/2-we-are-reaching-limits-in-many-ways.png?w=640&amp;h=464\" alt=\"2 We are reaching limits in many ways\" width=\"640\" height=\"464\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>All these limits work together. We can work around these limits, but the workarounds are higher cost\u2013for example, substituting less polluting energy resources for more polluting energy resources, or extracting lower grade ores instead of high-grade ores. When lower grade ores are used, we need to process more waste material, raising costs because of greater energy use.\u00a0When population rises, we must change our agricultural approaches to increase food production per acre cultivated.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-style-span\">The problem we reach with any of these workarounds is\u00a0<em>diminishing returns.<\/em>\u00a0We can keep increasing output, but doing so requires disproportionately more inputs of many kinds (including human labor, mineral resources, fresh water, and energy products) to produce the same quantity of output. This creates higher costs, and can lead to financial problems. This phenomenon is one of the major things that a model of a finite world should reflect.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Overview of Our Energy Modeling\u00a0Problem We live in a world with limits, yet our economy needs growth. How can we expect this scenario to play out? My view is that this problem will play out as a fairly near-term financial problem, with low oil prices leading to a fall in oil production. But not everyone [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[4917,4918,2571,328,1233,391,485,617,638,1371],"class_list":["post-7522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-economic-limits","tag-economic-theory","tag-energy-resources","tag-fossil-fuels","tag-gail-tverberg","tag-growth","tag-limits-to-growth","tag-peak-oil","tag-pollution","tag-population"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7522"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7522\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7523,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7522\/revisions\/7523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}