{"id":7452,"date":"2015-04-21T05:54:03","date_gmt":"2015-04-21T10:54:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=7452"},"modified":"2015-04-21T05:54:03","modified_gmt":"2015-04-21T10:54:03","slug":"chinese-economic-outlook-skewed-heavily-to-the-downside-bnp-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=7452","title":{"rendered":"Chinese Economic Outlook &#8220;Skewed Heavily To The Downside,&#8221; BNP Says"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2015-04-20\/chinese-economic-outlook-skewed-heavily-downside-bnp-says\" target=\"_blank\">Chinese Economic Outlook &#8220;Skewed Heavily To The Downside,&#8221; BNP Says<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Over the past several months we\u2019ve built on several narratives out of China certainly not the least of which is the idea that economic growth in the country is decelerating quickly at a time when accelerating capital outflows make devaluation an unpalatable (if inevitable) proposition. Signs of a dramatic slowdown were on full display earlier this month when GDP growth\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2015-04-14\/china-gdp-tumbles-lowest-6-years-amid-quadruple-whammy-dismal-data\">slipped to 7%<\/a>, the slowest pace in six years, while key indicators such as rail freight volume have fallen completely off a cliff:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user92183\/imageroot\/2015\/04\/ChinaRailFreight.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/user92183\/imageroot\/2015\/04\/ChinaRailFreight_0.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"406\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>With the country\u2019s tough transition to a service-based economy being made all the more difficult by the hit industrial production will likely take as Beijing ramps up efforts to fight a pollution problem that was thrust back into the spotlight early last month thanks to a viral documentary, it\u2019s reasonable to suspect we\u2019ll be seeing a lot more of the idle cranes, empty construction sites, and half-finished abandoned buildings that greeted Bloomberg metals analyst Kenneth Hoffman\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2015-04-10\/chinese-economy-lot-worse-you-think-bloomberg-says\">who returned from a tour<\/a>\u00a0of the country earlier this month. Ultimately, Hoffman\u2019s assessment was that metals demand in China is collapsing and isn\u2019t likely to pick back up for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n<p>This is bad news for the Chinese economic machine and it\u2019s also bad news for any iron ore miner out there whose marginal costs aren\u2019t low enough to stay profitable in the face of a protracted downturn in prices because if you\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2015-03-25\/fortescue-has-idea-arresting-iron-ore-price-slide-start-cartel\">can\u2019t convince the big guys<\/a>\u00a0that your price collusion idea will pass regulatory muster, well, they\u2019ll likely take the opportunity to keep right on producing despite the slump and run you out of business.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chinese Economic Outlook &#8220;Skewed Heavily To The Downside,&#8221; BNP Says Over the past several months we\u2019ve built on several narratives out of China certainly not the least of which is the idea that economic growth in the country is decelerating quickly at a time when accelerating capital outflows make devaluation an unpalatable (if inevitable) proposition. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[130,236,240,353,2353,424,4862],"class_list":["post-7452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-china","tag-economic-collapse","tag-economic-growth","tag-gdp","tag-hard-landing","tag-industrial-production","tag-rail-freight"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7452"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7452\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7453,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7452\/revisions\/7453"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}