{"id":7108,"date":"2015-04-05T08:23:44","date_gmt":"2015-04-05T13:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=7108"},"modified":"2015-04-05T08:23:44","modified_gmt":"2015-04-05T13:23:44","slug":"meet-the-new-recession-cycle-its-triggered-by-bursting-bubbles-not-surging-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=7108","title":{"rendered":"Meet The New Recession Cycle\u2014\u2014Its Triggered By Bursting Bubbles, Not Surging Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Meet The New Recession Cycle\u2014\u2014Its Triggered By Bursting Bubbles, Not Surging Inflation<\/a><\/h3>\n

We\u00a0are now in the month of\u00a0April\u2014\u2013so the\u00a0Wall Street Keynesians\u00a0are back on their\u00a0spring \u201cescape velocity\u201d offensive. Normally they accept the government\u2019s seasonal adjustments in stride, but since Q1 is again hugging the flat line or worse, it seems that \u201cbad seasonals\u201d owing to\u00a0an\u00a0incrementally winterish winter explain\u00a0it all away once again. Even today\u2019s punk jobs number purportedly reflects god\u2019s snow job, not theirs.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s really happening, they aver, is that\u00a0jobs are booming, wages are lifting, housing prices are rising, consumer confidence is buoyant,\u00a0car sales are strong and business is starting to borrow for growth. In fact, everything is so awesome that one Wall Street\u00a0economist quoted yesterday\u00a0could hardly contain his euphoria:<\/p>\n

\u201cConsumers have emerged from the winter blues. If they spend anywhere as great as they feel right now,\u00a0then this economy is going to roar over the next few months,\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0<\/em>said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Since Rupkey has been expecting a roaring economy for several\u00a0years now it is tempting to dismiss his latest\u00a0fantasy as just\u00a0the institutional cluelessness which emanates from\u00a0the\u00a0pitiful behemoths which pass for Japanese\u00a0banks.\u00a0But with only slightly more enthusiastic bombast, Rupkey is simply braying\u00a0from the\u00a0generic\u00a0Wall Street script.<\/p>\n

Since these people get paid a lot, have PhDs and might even be\u00a0smart, how is it that they are so wrong, and have been now for\u00a0five years running? There is a simple answer: They are operating on a business cycle model that is utterly erroneous and\u00a0obsolete; and which therefore distorts and obfuscates the \u2018in-coming\u2019 data and the inferences and forward expectations that they derive from it.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Meet The New Recession Cycle\u2014\u2014Its Triggered By Bursting Bubbles, Not Surging Inflation We\u00a0are now in the month of\u00a0April\u2014\u2013so the\u00a0Wall Street Keynesians\u00a0are back on their\u00a0spring \u201cescape velocity\u201d offensive. Normally they accept the government\u2019s seasonal adjustments in stride, but since Q1 is again hugging the flat line or worse, it seems that \u201cbad seasonals\u201d owing to\u00a0an\u00a0incrementally winterish […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[353,467,4639,4638,860],"class_list":["post-7108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-gdp","tag-keynesian-economics","tag-recession-cycle","tag-recessions","tag-wall-street"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7108"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7108\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7109,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7108\/revisions\/7109"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}