{"id":69717,"date":"2026-07-03T06:22:35","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T11:22:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=69717"},"modified":"2026-07-03T06:23:10","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T11:23:10","slug":"todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh-ccxlvii-monetary-systems-thermodynamics-and-ecological-overshoot-part-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=69717","title":{"rendered":"Today\u2019s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCXLVII\u2013Monetary Systems, Thermodynamics, and Ecological Overshoot, Part 1."},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pc pd pe pf pg\">\n<div class=\"g i\">\n<div class=\"ab f mn or os ot\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<div>\n<h1 id=\"ebc4\" class=\"pw-post-title ph da pi cw ev pj pk pl pm pn po pp pq pr ps pt pu pv pw px py pz qa qb qc qd qe qf qg qh db\" data-testid=\"storyTitle\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"bb\">Today\u2019s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCXLVII\u2013Monetary Systems, Thermodynamics, and Ecological Overshoot, Part 1.<\/strong><\/h1>\n<div>\n<div class=\"speechify-ignore g nd\">\n<div class=\"speechify-ignore f aj\">\n<div class=\"g nd qy qz ra rb rc rd re rf rg rh ri rj rk rl rm rn\">\n<div class=\"g h ro rp rq rr rs rt ru rv rw rx ry rz sa sb sc\">\n<div class=\"ga gb\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"ei\" aria-describedby=\"56\" aria-labelledby=\"56\">\n<div class=\"jy\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<div class=\"ei\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><em class=\"fo\" style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">Money, it\u2019s a crime<br \/>\n<\/em><em class=\"fo\" style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">Share it fairly, but don\u2019t take a slice of my pie<br \/>\n<\/em><em class=\"fo\" style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">Money, so they say<br \/>\n<\/em><em class=\"fo\" style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">Is the root of evil today<br \/>\n<\/em><span style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">-Pink Floyd,\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"av gv\" style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=-0kcet4aPpQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\"><em class=\"fo\">Money<\/em><\/a><span style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">\u00a0(1973)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p id=\"0d28\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us ut uu uv uw ux uy uz va vb vc vd ve vf vg vh vi vj vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">One of the interests I\u2019ve developed since falling down the rabbit\u2019s hole of\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Peak_oil\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">peak oil<\/a>,\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Societal_collapse\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">societal collapse<\/a>, and\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ecological_overshoot\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">ecological overshoot<\/a>\u00a0is how economics and, in particular, the monetary systems humans use are impacted by and, in turn, reinforce aspects of these phenomena.<\/p>\n<div class=\"vm vn vo\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:640\/format:webp\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 640w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:720\/format:webp\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 720w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:750\/format:webp\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 750w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:786\/format:webp\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 786w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:828\/format:webp\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 828w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:1100\/format:webp\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 1100w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:958\/format:webp\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 958w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 479px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:640\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 640w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:720\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 720w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:750\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 750w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:786\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 786w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:828\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 828w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:1100\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 1100w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:958\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png 958w\" sizes=\"(min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 479px\" data-testid=\"og\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"f tq vv vw aligncenter\" role=\"presentation\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:479\/1*fT73FxcZA7JDNzFlpL2vLA.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"479\" height=\"334\" \/><\/picture><\/div>\n<h6 class=\"vp vq vr vs vt vu vm vn paragraph-image\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"http:\/\/gettyimages.ca\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">gettyimages.ca<\/a><\/h6>\n<p id=\"a4b3\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">I hold no educational background or training in economics at all except for that which I received in a few under\/graduate anthropology\/archaeology courses, where modes of exchange (i.e.,\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Reciprocity_(cultural_anthropology)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">reciprocity<\/a>,\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Redistribution_(cultural_anthropology)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">redistribution<\/a>, and\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Market_(economics)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">market exchange<\/a>) were discussed and studied to a limited extent. One thing that I have found interesting is that from an anthropological\/archaeological perspective human history has for 99% of its existence been dominated by reciprocity and redistribution systems; market exchanges have been a relatively recent phenomenon\u2013a fragile outlier as it were. It\u2019s also noteworthy to realise that pre\/history shows that when energy surpluses shrink and complex redistribution schemes fail, societies tend to shift back towards localised systems of reciprocity.<\/p>\n<p id=\"07ea\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">With that framing in mind, and the fact that my understanding of economics and our monetary systems should be considered fundamental at best, this Contemplation aims to trace the causal chain from modern money to ecological overshoot and back again, because the relationship is not passive. The monetary systems currently employed by humans appear to be not just a neutral scoreboard; they are an active and increasingly significant accelerator of thermodynamic drawdown. All human technologies (including social ones such as our monetary systems) are themselves expressions of energy transformation \u2014 tools that amplify our power to extract, transform, and consume resources, but always at the cost of increasing system complexity and accelerating the depletion of high-quality energy and other resource stocks. Conversely, thermodynamic limits are the structural breaker that will eventually shatter the monetary logic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"g i ge wg wh wi\" role=\"separator\">\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pc pd pe pf pg\">\n<div class=\"g i\">\n<div class=\"ab f mn or os ot\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<figure class=\"vp vq vr vs vt vu vm vn paragraph-image\">\n<div class=\"vm vn wn\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:640\/format:webp\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 640w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:720\/format:webp\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 720w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:750\/format:webp\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 750w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:786\/format:webp\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 786w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:828\/format:webp\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 828w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:1100\/format:webp\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 1100w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:408\/format:webp\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 408w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"auto, (min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 204px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:640\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 640w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:720\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 720w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:750\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 750w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:786\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 786w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:828\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 828w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:1100\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 1100w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:408\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png 408w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 204px\" data-testid=\"og\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"f tq vv vw aligncenter\" role=\"presentation\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:204\/1*m2CQWU1E9x9joSmlxNHlnQ.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"204\" height=\"66\" \/><\/picture><\/div><figcaption class=\"vx ek vy vm vn vz wa cw b dr ds ag\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/buymeacoffee.com\/olduvai\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">CLICK HERE<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p id=\"a847\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: center;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"ur ev\">If you\u2019re new to my writing, check out\u00a0<\/strong><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=69137\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\"><strong class=\"ur ev\">this overview<\/strong><\/a><strong class=\"ur ev\">.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"bb07\" class=\"wo wp pi cw wq wr ws wt wu wv ww wx wy va wz xa xb ve xc xd xe vi xf xg xh xi db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"bb\">See my free book offer to readers at the end of this Contemplation\u2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"g i ge wg wh wi\" role=\"separator\">\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pc pd pe pf pg\">\n<div class=\"g i\">\n<div class=\"ab f mn or os ot\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<p id=\"57da\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"ur ev\">The Mechanics of Modern Money<br \/>\n<\/strong>Most people assume governments create all the money that exists in modern human societies. That is not how it works, however. In our current fiat systems, over 90% of the broad\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Money_supply\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">money supply<\/a>\u00a0(M2\/M3) is created by private commercial banks when they issue loans. A mortgage or business loan does not draw from existing deposits as\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Fractional-reserve_banking\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">fractional-reserve banking<\/a>\u00a0lore leads most to believe; the bank simply credits the borrower\u2019s account with new digital money created from thin air. The loan creates the deposit. The deposit becomes\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Purchasing_power\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">purchasing power<\/a>. This is the primary mechanism of money creation in modern economies.<\/p>\n<p id=\"4595\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Shadow_banking_system\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">Shadow banking\u00a0<\/a>and retail credit operate differently but are still important to my analysis. Shadow lenders \u2014 hedge funds, money market funds, private credit funds, and non-bank financial intermediaries \u2014 cannot create new deposit money as commercial banks can, but they amplify the credit cycle by purchasing and securitizing bank-issued loans, extending credit directly through private debt markets, and providing wholesale funding to banks. Retail businesses issuing credit \u2014 store cards, buy-now-pay-later schemes, and consumer installment plans \u2014 similarly extend purchasing power without creating new money. These entities increase the\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Velocity_of_money\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">velocity of money<\/a>, amplify\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/l\/leverage.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">leverage<\/a>, and expand the total stock of debt claims in an economy. Their institutional relationships and systemic implications are examined more fully in the following section.<\/p>\n<p id=\"d03e\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">This entire architecture matters because every loan or issuance of credit \u2014 whether from a commercial bank, a shadow lender, or a retail credit provider \u2014 comes with interest. The bank or lender creates the principal (in the case of commercial banks) or extends existing money (in the case of shadow\/retail), but none of them create the interest needed to repay the debt. To pay back both principal and interest, borrowers must obtain money that exists somewhere else in the economy. That money, in turn, can only come from other borrowers taking out new loans or other forms of credit, further expanding the total debt stock. The system therefore has a structural dependency on perpetual growth in total debt and credit. If total lending and credit issuance ever contracts, the money supply contracts with it (through loan repayment and deleveraging), triggering defaults throughout the debt superstructure.<\/p>\n<div class=\"vm vn xj\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:640\/format:webp\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 640w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:720\/format:webp\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 720w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:750\/format:webp\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 750w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:786\/format:webp\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 786w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:828\/format:webp\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 828w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:1100\/format:webp\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 1100w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:824\/format:webp\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 824w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"auto, (min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 412px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:640\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 640w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:720\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 720w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:750\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 750w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:786\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 786w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:828\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 828w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:1100\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 1100w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:824\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png 824w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 412px\" data-testid=\"og\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"f tq vv vw aligncenter\" role=\"presentation\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:412\/1*nPkJrdGOIzl6nEtLLD3yXw.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"412\" height=\"269\" \/><\/picture><\/div>\n<h6 class=\"vp vq vr vs vt vu vm vn paragraph-image\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iif.com\/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=XaPrtyfpqD8%3D&amp;portalid=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">Institute of International Finance<\/a><\/h6>\n<p id=\"25de\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Perpetual growth in debt requires perpetual growth in\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/data\/indicators\/nominal-gross-domestic-product-gdp.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">nominal gross domestic product<\/a>\u00a0(GDP), which historically requires perpetual growth in resource throughput, particularly of energy. Here occurs the first point of friction with physical reality.<\/p>\n<p id=\"0d16\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"ur ev\">The Symbiotic Relationship Between Banks, Shadow Lenders, Retail Credit, and the State<br \/>\n<\/strong>The previous section outlined the operational mechanics of how money and credit are created. This section examines the deeper institutional relationships that drive this system \u2014 specifically, the co-dependency between the private credit ecosystem and the state, and why this structure actively perpetuates the growth imperative despite its biophysical impossibility.<\/p>\n<p id=\"cffc\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Private commercial banks are the operational engines of monetary expansion. They decide, case-by-case, who receives credit, for what purpose, and at what interest rate. Their\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/ask\/answers\/042915\/what-are-some-examples-fiduciary-duty.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">fiduciary duty<\/a>\u00a0to shareholders (and other profit incentives) compels them to maximise lending, which directly translates to maximising the creation of debt-claims on future energy and resources. They are profit-seeking corporations, not public utilities; they do not operate with ecological conscience or thermodynamic awareness. Their survival depends on continuous circulation and expansion of credit \u2014 which is perhaps the reason many (most?) who oversee and benefit from this system deplore deflation and speak of its potential to destroy economies.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a92b\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Of course, commercial banks do not operate in isolation. The shadow banking sector has grown enormously since the 1980s, and in some jurisdictions now rivals or exceeds the traditional banking sector in total credit extended. Retail credit providers have similarly become significant players. As noted in the previous section, these entities amplify the credit cycle by increasing the velocity of money and expanding the total stock of debt claims. Their crucial role in the broader financial ecosystem cannot be overstated.<\/p>\n<p id=\"df80\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">While governments are not responsible for the vast majority of money creation, they are not passive enablers of this entire credit superstructure. They are active, dependent partners. Modern states are addicted to the credit that the entire financial ecosystem creates because economic growth is the primary driver of tax revenues, which fund state operations, social programmes, and sovereign debt service \u2014 the expansion of which helps to support the narrative that governments are the primary reason for economic prosperity. If the credit system seizes up \u2014 whether through bank lending contractions, shadow banking liquidity freezes, or retail credit defaults \u2014 the money supply contracts, tax revenues collapse, and the state faces a fiscal crisis. The state needs the entire credit apparatus to keep expanding just as much as the financial sector needs the state\u2019s backing.<\/p>\n<p id=\"9cb3\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">This backing takes several forms. Central banks act as lender of last resort, bailing out failing commercial banks during crises. Shadow banks, however, exist in a grey area; they often lack direct access to central bank facilities, which makes them more vulnerable to runs and fire sales, but in practice central banks have repeatedly extended emergency lending to shadow banking entities during crises \u2014 as seen in 2008 and 2020 \u2014 effectively backstopping the entire credit superstructure.<\/p>\n<p id=\"9f72\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Governments provide\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/how-does-deposit-insurance-work\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">deposit insurance<\/a>, preventing runs on commercial banks. They accept bank-created deposits for tax payments, which gives private money its fiat value. Central banks also set the base interest rate, effectively gifting banks access to virtually free reserves that can be leveraged into loans. For shadow banks and retail credit providers, the state\u2019s role is more indirect but no less crucial: central bank rate policy influences their borrowing costs, and state-backed bailouts during crises insulate them from the full consequences of their risk-taking\u2013thus the refrain from an array of critics that \u201cgains\/profits are privatised while losses are socialised\u201d.<\/p>\n<p id=\"097f\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">These are not passive acts of enabling; they are active state subsidies to the entire private credit ecosystem.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a94e\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Conversely, governments and regulators set capital requirements, leverage ratios, and lending standards \u2014 rules that determine how much credit can be extended relative to underlying collateral and reserves. Historically, they have consistently loosened these rules during booms (encouraging more lending) and only tightened during busts (reacting to damage already done). The shadow banking system, in particular, has often been less regulated than traditional banks, allowing it to expand credit more aggressively during booms and collapse more catastrophically during busts \u2014 a pattern that makes the entire financial superstructure more unstable. This pattern makes the state a pro-cyclical accelerant rather than a neutral referee.<\/p>\n<p id=\"82ff\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">In thermodynamic terms: commercial banks create the money; shadow banks and retail credit multiply its velocity and leverage; and the state \u2014 by guaranteeing the system, providing emergency backstops, and setting regulatory permissiveness \u2014 removes the natural brakes. Neither commercial banks, shadow lenders, retail credit providers, nor the state can survive without the others in the current structure. If the government withdrew its backing tomorrow, the fractional reserve system would collapse within days, and the shadow banking superstructure would unravel even faster. If commercial banks ceased lending tomorrow, the shadow and retail credit superstructure would lose its foundation, the government\u2019s tax base would evaporate, and sovereign debt would become unserviceable.<\/p>\n<p id=\"80a2\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">They are multiple heads of the same hydra, all chasing an infinite horizon on a finite planet. This symbiotic trap is not a conspiracy; it is a structural outcome of how modern economies have chosen to organise money, credit, and sovereignty. It is also the institutional foundation upon which the thermodynamic consequences described in the following sections are built.<\/p>\n<p id=\"5d06\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"ur ev\">The Thermodynamic Constraint and Odum\u2019s Maximum Power Principle<br \/>\n<\/strong>The\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/First_law_of_thermodynamics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">First Law of Thermodynamics<\/a>\u00a0states that energy cannot be created or destroyed, only transformed. When a central bank creates $1 trillion digitally, it creates zero new\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Joule\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">joules<\/a>. That trillion, however, becomes a potential claim on existing and future energy transformations.<\/p>\n<p id=\"17d7\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">The\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Second_law_of_thermodynamics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">Second Law<\/a>\u00a0states that every transformation disperses concentrated energy into diffuse waste heat. Every barrel of oil burned, every ton of coal consumed, is an irreversible drawdown of a finite stock of ancient sunlight. This applies no less to \u201crenewables\u201d and other so-called non-\/low-carbon energies.<\/p>\n<p id=\"7ac3\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Solar panels, wind turbines, and battery storage are not energy sources in themselves; they are energy transformers. They require hydrocarbons to mine the raw materials, manufacture the components, transport them to installation sites, maintain them over their operational lifespan, and ultimately decommission and recycle or dispose of them. The net energy of renewables is the surplus after subtracting all these hydrocarbon-fuelled inputs. As high-energy return on investment (<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Energy_return_on_investment\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">EROI<\/a>) oil declines, the energy cost of building and maintaining the renewable infrastructure rises, compressing the net surplus available to society. Renewables are not a replacement for hydrocarbon fuels in thermodynamic terms; they are a way to extend the useful work from the remaining hydrocarbon inheritance, but they cannot escape the Second Law\u2019s dissipation or the finite stocks of rare earth metals and other materials required for their construction.<\/p>\n<p id=\"682c\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Nuclear power, while producing no direct CO\u2082 emissions during operation, faces a similar thermodynamic and material constraint. Uranium and thorium are finite resources, and their extraction \u2014 from conventional mining to in-situ leaching \u2014 requires significant hydrocarbon-fuel inputs. The construction of nuclear reactors demands vast quantities of high-grade steel, concrete, and specialized alloys, all of which are energy-intensive to produce. Enrichment of fuel, particularly for light-water reactors, consumes enormous amounts of electricity, itself derived largely from hydrocarbon or existing nuclear sources. Over the reactor\u2019s lifetime, maintenance, fuel fabrication, waste management, and eventual decommissioning all draw from the same shrinking pool of net energy.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a9fd\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">The EROI of nuclear is debated, but even optimistic estimates place it below historical oil and coal; when uranium grades decline and enrichment costs rise, the net energy return compresses further. Moreover, nuclear waste remains a multi-millennial liability requiring active cooling and secure storage, both of which demand continuous energy input and institutional stability \u2014 a condition unlikely to hold in a simplifying world. Like renewables, nuclear is not a perpetual motion machine; it is a way to convert one finite geological stock into usable power, with its own thermodynamic overhead and entropy debt.<\/p>\n<p id=\"a6d8\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Odum\u2019s Maximum Power Principle (<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Maximum_power_principle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">MPP<\/a>) observes that natural selection favors systems that capture the most energy and convert it to the most power, rather than those that are merely efficient. Our monetary system is the ultimate expression of this principle. Cheap credit allowed energy companies to finance extraction projects with marginal or negative EROI \u2014 deepwater drilling, tar sands, fracking \u2014 that would have been unviable under strict biophysical accounting. The same logic applies to nuclear and renewable megaprojects, which also depend on low-interest debt to cover enormous upfront capital costs. The debt forced the extraction. The extraction maintained gross volume. But the net energy surplus per unit extracted declined steadily. We\u2019ve spent more joules to get each new joule, satisfying the MPP demand for total throughput while eroding the surplus that actually runs the rest of the economy.<\/p>\n<p id=\"6f31\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Technological efficiency, often touted as the solution to resource depletion, historically follows Jevons Paradox: gains in efficiency reduce the cost of energy services, which incentivises greater total consumption, not less. More efficient engines led to more cars; more efficient lighting led to more illuminated spaces; more efficient computing led to exponentially more data centers. Our monetary system, by lowering the cost of credit, accelerates this cycle, funding ever-larger technological infrastructures that lock us into higher gross throughput while eroding net surplus. Each new technology promises to \u201csolve\u201d the energy problem, but in practice it becomes another way to maximise power drawdown \u2014 another tool in the service of Odum\u2019s principle, not a departure from it.<\/p>\n<p id=\"4909\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"ur ev\">Catton\u2019s Overshoot and the Ghost Acres<br \/>\n<\/strong><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/William_R._Catton_Jr.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">Catton<\/a>\u00a0described overshoot as a population and infrastructure drawing down \u201cghost acres\u201d \u2014 resources that existed in the past (hydrocarbon fuels) or that are being drawn from the future (soil depletion, aquifer drawdown) \u2014 to support, temporarily, a population above sustainable\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Carrying_capacity\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">carrying capacity<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p id=\"2e86\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">The monetary system compounds this effect. Debt issued today is a claim on future production. But future production itself depends on future energy availability. When we draw down high-EROI oil to finance present consumption and debt service, we are effectively mortgaging the net energy of future decades. The interest on that mortgage requires even more future energy extraction. Catton\u2019s ghost acres are not just physical; they are financial. The claims pile up faster than the underlying energy surplus can service them.<\/p>\n<p id=\"2bf0\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us uu uv uw uy uz va vc vd ve vg vh vi vk vl xk uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"ur ev\">Tainter\u2019s Diminishing Returns and Financial Complexity<br \/>\n<\/strong><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Joseph_Tainter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">Tainter<\/a>\u00a0argued that societies invest in complexity to solve problems. Each added layer of complexity \u2014 bureaucracy, infrastructure, military, legal frameworks \u2014 costs energy to maintain. Initially, the benefit exceeds the cost. Eventually, the marginal return drops to zero, then negative.<\/p>\n<div class=\"vm vn xl\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:640\/format:webp\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 640w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:720\/format:webp\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 720w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:750\/format:webp\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 750w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:786\/format:webp\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 786w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:828\/format:webp\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 828w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:1100\/format:webp\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 1100w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:912\/format:webp\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 912w\" type=\"image\/webp\" sizes=\"auto, (min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 456px\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:640\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 640w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:720\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 720w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:750\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 750w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:786\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 786w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:828\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 828w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:1100\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 1100w, https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:912\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png 912w\" sizes=\"auto, (min-resolution: 4dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 4) and (max-width: 700px) 50vw, (min-resolution: 3dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 67vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 3) and (max-width: 700px) 65vw, (min-resolution: 2.5dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2.5) and (max-width: 700px) 80vw, (min-resolution: 2dppx) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2) and (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 456px\" data-testid=\"og\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"f tq vv vw\" role=\"presentation\" src=\"https:\/\/miro.medium.com\/v2\/resize:fit:456\/1*vmMZJiDyKEPAT1gtiOwXfQ.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"456\" height=\"326\" \/><\/picture><\/div>\n<h6 class=\"vp vq vr vs vt vu vm vn paragraph-image\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Diminishing_returns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">wikipedia.org<\/a><\/h6>\n<p id=\"8d2a\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Applied to our monetary system, the complexity is the global financial architecture itself: derivatives, cross-border settlement systems, high-frequency trading algorithms, regulatory frameworks, and the entire central banking apparatus. This architecture does not produce food or energy. It consumes massive amounts of electricity and human labor simply to operate.<\/p>\n<p id=\"e467\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">As net energy declines, maintaining this financial superstructure consumes an increasing share of the shrinking surplus. The cost of managing the claims begins to exceed the real wealth the system generates. At that crossover point, the complexity ceases to be a solution and becomes a drag.<\/p>\n<p id=\"b4e0\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" style=\"text-align: left;\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">In Part 2, the analysis shifts from the mechanics and institutional drivers of our monetary system to the dynamic consequences of these structures when placed against biophysical limits. I will lay out four interconnected feedback loops that show how the symbiotic trap of state-backed credit creation operates in motion: debt driving low-EROI extraction, falling net energy trapping monetary policy, ecological overshoot destroying financial collateral, and technological complexity becoming unserviceable. From there, I will turn to the anthropological baseline \u2014 examining how pre-market societies organised exchange without perpetual growth, how previous civilisations navigated collapse, and why the current global overshoot presents conditions unprecedented in scale and severity. The conclusion will address the boundary conditions of our predicament and the question of what the ruling elite are likely to do as consequences become increasingly apparent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"g i ge wg wh wi\" role=\"separator\">\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pc pd pe pf pg\">\n<div class=\"g i\">\n<div class=\"ab f mn or os ot\">\n<p id=\"2089\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Relevant articles of interest:<\/p>\n<p id=\"dc55\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/stories\/2017-08-03\/whats-really-driving-global-economic-crisis-net-energy-decline\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">What\u2019s Really Driving the Global Economic Crisis is Net Energy Decline \u2014 resilience<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"68eb\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/311153811_Net_Energy_Decline\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">Net Energy Decline<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"e729\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oilandgas360.com\/the-engineered-barrel-part-i-matt-simmons-aging-reservoirs-and-the-new-physics-of-global-oil\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">The Engineered Barrel \u2014 Part I: Matt Simmons, aging reservoirs, and the new physics of global oil \u2014 Oil &amp; Gas 360<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"5db2\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.gorozen.com\/blog\/are-energy-markets-tighter-than-investors-realize\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">Are Energy Markets Tighter Than Investors Realize<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"cfe1\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/jensendavid.substack.com\/p\/the-die-is-cast-energy-and-financial\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">The Die Is Cast \u2014 Energy And Financial Markets Upset Inevitable<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"d50b\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/commodities\/energy-cliff-supply-chain-shock-toxic-cocktail-get-iran-deal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">Energy Cliff, Supply Chain Shock: The Toxic Cocktail Behind The Urgent Push For An Iran Deal | ZeroHedge<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"f50d\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/lauvegys.substack.com\/p\/the-fed-is-quietly-abandoning-its\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">The Fed Is Quietly Abandoning Its 2% Inflation Target<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"68ae\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/larrycjohnson.substack.com\/p\/strategic-oil-reserve-nears-collapse\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">Strategic Oil Reserve Nears Collapse\u2026 US Must Choose: Guns or Butter<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"ce00\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.savageminds.co\/p\/the-mask-and-the-barrel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">The Mask and the Barrel<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"1cd9\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?app=desktop&amp;v=ujAyzVj0ZFk&amp;utm_source=dr-steve-keen-rebel-report.beehiiv.com&amp;utm_medium=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=53-record-highs-and-a-40-trillion-blind-spot-the-crisis-nobody-sees-coming\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">Top Economist: U.S. Debt Bomb Is About to Wreck the Stock Market<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"b146\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/seeingclearly42.substack.com\/p\/eroei-running-out-of-easy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">EROEI \u2014 Running out of Easy \u2014 by Seeing Clearly<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"0391\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/mises.org\/mises-wire\/april-money-supply-growth-hit-49-month-high-and-prices-soared\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">April Money Supply Growth Hit a 49-Month High. And Prices Soared. | Mises Institute<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"b494\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/rickylanusse.substack.com\/p\/a-weakening-amoc-left-one-blue-scar\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">A Weakening AMOC Left One Blue Scar On The Map \u2014 And Its Consequences Run Pole To Pole<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"ee86\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/globalgeopolitics.co.uk\/2026\/06\/15\/why-the-bank-of-japans-decades-old-manipulation-is-finally-coming-apart-5\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">Why the Bank of Japan\u2019s Decades Old Manipulation is Finally Coming Apart<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"bf44\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/charleshughsmith.substack.com\/p\/we-dont-need-the-real-world-we-only\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">We Don\u2019t Need the Real World, We Only Need Money<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"653a\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theepochtimes.com\/opinion\/debt-tsunami-the-alan-greenspan-legacy-6052603?utm_source=partner&amp;utm_campaign=ZeroHedge\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">Debt Tsunami: The Alan Greenspan Legacy | The Epoch Times<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"7fe8\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/coming-return-commodity-backed-money\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">The Coming Return Of Commodity-Backed Money | ZeroHedge<\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"818a\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com\/2026\/05\/05\/323-they-first-make-mad\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">#323: They first make mad | Surplus Energy Economics<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"g i ge wg wh wi\" role=\"separator\">\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pc pd pe pf pg\">\n<div class=\"g i\">\n<div class=\"ab f mn or os ot\">\n<h3 id=\"c319\" class=\"wo wp pi cw wq wr ws wt wu wv ww wx wy va wz xa xb ve xc xd xe vi xf xg xh xi db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"bb\">Special Offer<br \/>\n<\/strong>If you have made it to the end of this Contemplation, I have an offer for you. Send me an email at\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"http:\/\/olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com<\/a>\u00a0requesting a copy of Part 1 of my trilogy and I\u2019ll fire off a PDF of it to you for your \u201cfictional\u201d reading pleasure. If you like the beginning of the tale, please consider ordering the trilogy here: Purchase Book(s) \u2014 Olduvai.ca.<\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"g i ge wg wh wi\" role=\"separator\">\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pc pd pe pf pg\">\n<div class=\"g i\">\n<div class=\"ab f mn or os ot\">\n<p id=\"d570\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">What is going to be my standard\u00a0<strong class=\"ur ev\">WARNING\/ADVICE<\/strong>\u00a0going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:<\/p>\n<p id=\"7acc\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there\u2019s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by \u2018collapsing now to avoid the rush\u2019 and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.<\/p>\n<p id=\"6eb0\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There\u2019s no guarantee it will ensure \u2018recovery\u2019 after a significant societal stressor\/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can \u2018hope\u2019 for from its pursuit.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"g i ge wg wh wi\" role=\"separator\">\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pc pd pe pf pg\">\n<div class=\"g i\">\n<div class=\"ab f mn or os ot\">\n<p id=\"b791\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing,\u00a0<strong class=\"ur ev\">please consider ordering the trilogy of my \u201cfictional\u201d novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian)<\/strong>, via my\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">website<\/a>\u00a0or the link below \u2014 the \u201cprofits\u201d of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).<\/p>\n<p id=\"a779\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).<\/p>\n<p id=\"d8b5\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.<\/p>\n<p id=\"80ad\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">Costs (Canadian dollars):<br \/>\nBook 1: $2.99<br \/>\nBook 2: $3.89<br \/>\nBook 3: $3.89<br \/>\nTrilogy: $9.99<\/p>\n<p id=\"3b3f\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><strong class=\"ur ev\">Feel free to throw in a \u201ctip\u201d on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents\/dollars helps\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p id=\"3ff4\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\"><a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/paypal.me\/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&amp;locale.x=en_US\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\"><strong class=\"ur ev\">https:\/\/paypal.me\/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&amp;locale.x=en_US<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"8515\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.<\/p>\n<p id=\"bbef\" class=\"pw-post-body-paragraph up uq pi ur b us wb uu uv uw wc uy uz va wd vc vd ve we vg vh vi wf vk vl uo pc db\" data-selectable-paragraph=\"\">You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton\u2019s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter\u2019s Collapse of Complex Societies: see\u00a0<a class=\"av gv\" href=\"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?page_id=55981\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener ugc nofollow\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today\u2019s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCXLVII\u2013Monetary Systems, Thermodynamics, and Ecological Overshoot, Part 1. Money, it\u2019s a crime Share it fairly, but don\u2019t take a slice of my pie Money, so they say Is the root of evil today -Pink Floyd,\u00a0Money\u00a0(1973) One of the interests I\u2019ve developed since falling down the rabbit\u2019s hole of\u00a0peak oil,\u00a0societal collapse, and\u00a0ecological [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3,4,5,6,7],"tags":[16632,309,2069,536,14221,15173,30370,33947],"class_list":["post-69717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","category-environment","category-geopolitics","category-liberty","category-survival-2","tag-ecological-collapse","tag-fiat-currency","tag-monetary-system","tag-money","tag-societal-collapse","tag-thermodynamics","tag-todays-contemplation","tag-todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=69717"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69717\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69719,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69717\/revisions\/69719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=69717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=69717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=69717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}