{"id":69578,"date":"2026-02-13T03:00:44","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T08:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=69578"},"modified":"2026-02-12T19:40:22","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T00:40:22","slug":"todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh-ccxxx-revisited-collapse-prolonged-period-of-diminishing-returns-significant-stress-surges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=69578","title":{"rendered":"Today\u2019s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCXXX\u2013 Revisited: Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Today\u2019s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCXXX\u2013<\/b><b><br \/>\n<\/b><b>Revisited: <\/b><b>Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Over the past several months I have seen far more posts on my various media and social feeds focussed on the idea of societal \u2018collapse\/simplification\/decline\u2019. The reasons for this probably vary by author, but I would suspect that in part it reflects what archaeologist Joseph Tainter describes in his text <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Collapse of Complex Societies<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> as \u2018scanning\u2019 behaviour due to increased societal stress. Tainter describes this tendency as an adaptive response to the growing awareness of societal \u2018problems\u2019 whereby people begin searching for alternative \u2018solutions\u2019 to failing status quo arrangements. Motivation for such searching relies greatly upon the recognition that societies are temporary arrangements which tend to wax and wane over time. And for an increasing number of people, our global industrial societies appear to have reached their zenith and simplification awaits us just ahead; thus begins the search for \u2018adaptations\u2019.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Today-25-187-tulum.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-68918\" src=\"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Today-25-187-tulum.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"584\" height=\"395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Today-25-187-tulum.jpg 584w, https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Today-25-187-tulum-300x203.jpg 300w, https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Today-25-187-tulum-75x50.jpg 75w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 584px) 100vw, 584px\" \/>Tulum, Mexico. Photo by author<\/a><\/h5>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As such, I thought that this might be an opportune time to revisit a series of posts I did back in late 2024 related to the topic of societal \u2018collapse\u2019 as I work on another We\u2019re Saved! Contemplation\u2013this time analysing the environmental philosophy known as Ecomodernism, a very \u2018pro-growth\u2019 (via a massive buildout of technologies) response to increasing societal stressors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In Part 1 of this series on societal collapse I outline what \u2018collapse\u2019 is and how it manifests itself in complex societies <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68892\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Website<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">; <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/stevebull-4168.medium.com\/todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh-clxxxv-collapse-prolonged-period-of-diminishing-returns-fca03fc9edff\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Medium<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">; <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/open.substack.com\/pub\/stevebull\/p\/todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh-6c1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Substack<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">)<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Part 2 explores the topic of diminishing returns on investments and how stress surges can overwhelm human sociopolitical systems that are experiencing diminishing returns and thereby open the door to broader societal collapse; I then begin to explore what follows collapse <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68903\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Website<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">;\u00a0 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/stevebull-4168.medium.com\/todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh-clxxxvi-collapse-prolonged-period-of-diminishing-returns-6f0e0a2dfeb8\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Medium<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">; <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/open.substack.com\/pub\/stevebull\/p\/todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh-ca1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Substack<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">). Part 3 expands on what past societies tell us about the collapse process and how they responded as society simplified\u2013particularly the ruling elite; and suggests that these past experiences provide us with suggestions as to what our societies might expect in our uncertain future (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68917\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Website<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">; <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/stevebull-4168.medium.com\/todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh-clxxxvii-collapse-prolonged-period-of-diminishing-returns-29901702c7ce\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Medium<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">; <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/stevebull.substack.com\/p\/todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh-a19\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Substack<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">). Finally, Part 4 reviews the patterns that exist throughout past collapses and how these might impact our present societies and their simplification (<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=68926\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Website<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">; <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/stevebull-4168.medium.com\/todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh-clxxxviii-collapse-prolonged-period-of-diminishing-32e03aea471e\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Medium<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">; <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/stevebull.substack.com\/p\/todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh-54a\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Substack<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The evidence laid out in these four posts led me to conclude that:<br \/>\n<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cPerhaps one of the more significant impediments for our species in being able to accept that societal collapse is inevitable is that in our human proclivity to deny\/avoid\/ignore anxiety-provoking thoughts, the vast majority of us disregard the overwhelming evidence\u2026so we support, even encourage, the elite response to keep pushing on the string of increased complexity and technology. Because, you know, human ingenuity. But all we are accomplishing by doing this is helping to make a tough situation even worse.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We mostly ignore, at our peril, the alternative (and one that will appear whether we wish it or not): simplification.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Relevant articles\/presentations:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?app=desktop&amp;v=S1ypWcqnojM\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ronald Wright &#8211; Seeing the Future in the Ruins of the Past<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/journals\/digital-humanities\/articles\/10.3389\/fdigh.2019.00016\/full\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A New Kind of Relevance for Archaeology<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2108537118\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The archaeology of climate change: The case for cultural diversity | PNAS<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.advancedsciencenews.com\/what-archaeology-of-the-remote-past-can-tell-us-about-our-future-under-climate-change\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What Archaeology of the Remote Past Can Tell Us About Our Future Under Climate Change<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/risingscholars.net\/en\/news\/details\/1950\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rising Scholars &#8211; Looking to the Past to Predict the Future: The Power of Statistical Learning<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.numberanalytics.com\/blog\/predicting-future-through-historical-lenses\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Predicting the Future Through Historical Lenses<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.centreofexcellence.com\/historical-analysis-predict-future\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Looking Ahead: How Historical Analysis Can Help Us Predict The Future &#8211; Centre of Excellence<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/362249849_Human_Prehistory_Exploring_the_Past_to_Understand_the_Future\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(PDF) Human Prehistory. Exploring the Past to Understand the Future<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pressenza.com\/2022\/10\/human-prehistory-why-new-discoveries-about-human-origins-open-up-revolutionary-possibilities\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Human Prehistory\u2014Why New Discoveries About Human Origins Open Up Revolutionary Possibilities<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nsf.gov\/news\/connecting-prehistoric-past-global-future\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Connecting the prehistoric past to the global future | NSF &#8211; U.S. National Science Foundation<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What is going to be my standard <\/span><b>WARNING\/ADVICE <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cOnly time will tell how this all unfolds but there\u2019s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by \u2018collapsing now to avoid the rush\u2019 and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better. Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There\u2019s no guarantee it will ensure \u2018recovery\u2019 after a significant societal stressor\/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can \u2018hope\u2019 for from its pursuit.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, <\/span><b>please consider ordering the trilogy of my \u2018fictional\u2019 novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, via my website or the link below \u2014 the \u2018profits\u2019 of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Costs (Canadian dollars): Book 1: $2.99; Book 2: $3.89; Book 3: $3.89<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Trilogy: $9.99<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Feel free to throw in a \u2018tip\u2019 on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents\/dollars helps\u2026 <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/paypal.me\/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&amp;locale.x=en_US\"><b>https:\/\/paypal.me\/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&amp;locale.x=en_US<\/b><\/a><b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton\u2019s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter\u2019s Collapse of Complex Societies: see <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?page_id=55981\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">here<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today\u2019s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCXXX\u2013 Revisited: Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s) Over the past several months I have seen far more posts on my various media and social feeds focussed on the idea of societal \u2018collapse\/simplification\/decline\u2019. The reasons for this probably vary by author, but I would suspect that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3,4,5,6,7],"tags":[31,150,15469,154,196,209,8075,2725,24512,34910,1469,786,30370,33947],"class_list":["post-69578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","category-environment","category-geopolitics","category-liberty","category-survival-2","tag-archaeology","tag-collapse","tag-collapse-of-complex-societies","tag-complexity","tag-decline","tag-diminishing-returns","tag-ecomodernism","tag-predictions","tag-simplification","tag-solution-vs-predicament","tag-stress","tag-technology","tag-todays-contemplation","tag-todays-contemplation-collapse-cometh"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=69578"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69578\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69581,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69578\/revisions\/69581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=69578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=69578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=69578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}