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<\/a>Canadian House Prices vs. Mean, Median, and Modal Income\u00a0<\/span>(generated via Julius.ai)<\/span><\/p>\nIf you\u2019re new to my writing, check out <\/b>this synopsis<\/b><\/a>.<\/b><\/p>\n As I continue to read and summarise very slowly and methodically another academic article (<\/span>Collapse, Environment, and Society<\/span><\/a>) and get side-tracked by our food gardens, I wanted to revisit a topic (Canada\u2019s housing \u2018crisis\u2019) I discussed almost two years ago (see: <\/span>Website<\/span><\/a>; <\/span>Medium<\/span><\/a>; <\/span>Substack<\/span><\/a>). While the issue may appear to deviate from my usual focus upon societal \u2018collapse\u2019, ecological overshoot, and energy, it touches upon a few of the related concerns I have and observations I\u2019ve made.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n In particular the: narrative control\/management\/propaganda we are exposed to constantly and repeatedly by the world\u2019s ruling caste and various profiteers; increasing evidence that our political systems are in service to this ruling elite and not the masses as marketed; and, ever-present leveraging of \u2018crises\u2019 by the ruling class and various snake oil salesmen to improve\/extend the wealth-generation\/-extraction systems that provide their revenue streams\/profits and, subsequently, influence, power, and control. To put it simply: the housing \u2018crisis\u2019 I am going to delve into is just another racket that our ruling caste has leveraged to their advantage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n In addition, connecting it back to the collapse\/overshoot\/energy nexus I typically write about, the: absolute disregard for the ecological-systems destruction wrought by policies and actions despite the occasional political propaganda that such repercussions are usually, if not always, considered; increasing inequality arising as the elite ensure their share of a finite (and shrinking) economic pie is maintained\/expanded in the face of limits to growth increasingly impacting human economic systems and wealth distribution; and, finally, feeding of the monster that is expediting our journey over the energy cliff and leading our complex societies to collapse and overshoot\u2013pursuit of the infinite growth chalice.<\/span><\/p>\n All of these aspects are, to me, signals that our complex societies have not only encountered diminishing returns on their investments in our various increasingly complex societal systems, but that we are already experiencing the \u2018collapse\u2019 of them (keep in mind that \u2018collapse\u2019 is a relatively long and drawn-out process that will be unevenly experienced) and the attempts by our world\u2019s ruling caste to not only kick-the-can-down-the-road for as long as they can so their gravy train keeps on rolling on for at least another quarter or two (the Ponzi must continue to expand or it implodes), but to siphon wealth from the majority of people who do not have the connections\/influence\/power over the decision-\/policy-makers that \u2018lead\u2019 our various societal institutions, especially the governing, legislative, narrative-management, and\u00a0 financial\/economic systems.<\/span><\/p>\n Some of my Contemplations that touch on the above subjects: As I argue in one of the posts in the handful above<\/span>: Evidence would suggest that this is the exact opposite of what we should likely be attempting but we are pursuing it regardless. Unfortunately, in doing so we are exacerbating all of the negative aspects of growing complexity: inequality; specialisation (and thus interdependency, both nationally and internationally); mechanisms for sociobehavioural control; currency debasement; resource drawdown and concomitant environmental\/ecological-systems destruction.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n As Tainter suggests, these observations are important to us in the present since they can inform us as to what we are likely to face as our societies attempt to counter the consequences of diminishing returns and its numerous impacts upon us.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Scanning the media regularly over the past couple of decades would suggest that some of these societal collapse consequences have already taken place or begun to for some nation states and for some regions within nation states. This is not necessarily for the reason of diminishing returns in many but for the reason of geopolitics where power struggles have or are occurring, and for some where stronger powers have undercut the ruling elite to sow chaos\u2013usually with the aim to fill the subsequent power vacuum and control the nation\u2019s wealth and resources.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n But even if we ignore such cases and focus upon seemingly strong nations, we can begin to see some of the collapse process unfolding. Certainly it would appear that central authority, or at least support for it, is breaking down for a number of nation states. Civic strife between opposing factions can be seen increasing in intensity, if not actual \u2018battles\u2019. Government revenues are faltering and the typical response of currency debasement is occurring to counter this. Resources are being redirected from the masses to the privileged few that sit atop the power and wealth structures of society. Supply chains are being disrupted due to trade disputes and other geopolitical maneuvering.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Many of these changes are being hidden or rationalised away as one-offs, or due to some nefarious \u2018other\u2019. But they are occurring nonetheless in a number of places, including supposed stable nations. It is only through willful ignorance that they are not perceived for what they are: signals of impending sociopolitical collapse due to an elite class attempting to offset diminishing returns on our investments in complexity.<\/span><\/i>\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n In that September 2023 post referenced in the beginning of this post, where I first wrote about housing, I argued that a move by my home province\u2019s government was leveraging the story of a housing \u2018crisis\u2019 to help well-connected individuals\/groups to flip land holdings and\/or expand housing developments onto ecologically-sensitive (and previously restricted) land. The dominant narrative\/story being spread far and wide was (and still is) that the unaffordability of housing is a direct result of a deficit of supply not meeting demand along with previously legislated restrictions that are holding up the obvious \u2018solution\u2019: a massive expansion of housing builds.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n While my concern is primarily for my home province of Ontario, Canada, it seems that for quite a number of regions around the world the story is virtually identical: home buyers cannot afford to purchase\/rent housing because there simply are not enough units in existence and regulations are restricting the expedient construction of more!!\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Using the large language model AI <\/span>Deepseek<\/span><\/a> and the graphing AI <\/span>Julius <\/span><\/a>I gathered and analysed data on housing for Ontario and Canada in general. I asked a series of several dozen questions with a few additional bits of data as suggested by the programs to explore. Given some of the articles I\u2019ve read over the past few years on housing issues in other nations, it seems clear that the issues discussed here are somewhat of a global phenomenon.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n In general, the data would appear to support the argument that Ontario and Canada face an \u2018affordability\u2019 crisis and not a \u2018supply\u2019 crisis. And this \u2018crisis\u2019 would appear to be the result of institutional policy and pursuit of profit\/revenue and not of inadequate supply to meet domestic family\/individual needs. In fact, the data shows the opposite of the mainstream narrative: there is a positive correlation between housing unit supply and their prices\u2013the greater the supply of housing units, the higher the cost of them becomes! That this runs counter to basic supply vs demand economics shows that something else is creating a housing \u2018crisis\u2019.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n So, what specifically does the data say?<\/span><\/p>\n The supply of housing units has, for the past 100 years, been increasing on a steady pace and actually ahead of population increases on a unit per capita basis. Ever larger numbers of units per person have been occurring across Canada and Ontario with the rate of housing construction increase always outpacing population growth. The affordability of this housing, however, changed about 30 years ago not long after incomes began experiencing their long-term stagnation due to several recessions and the off-shoring of most relatively well-paying domestic, industrial employment.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Alongside this lack of income parity with general price inflation (and in the case of housing, significant price inflation) has been: an increase in the \u2018commodification\u2019 of housing and concomitant surge in \u2018investors\u2019 (primarily the wealthy elite, large corporations, private equity firms, and foreign \u2018syndicates\u2019 and individuals); the long-term suppression of interest rates allowing for an exponential increase in credit\/debt availability (especially for those already with leverageable assets and large institutions); income for the top 10% surging while that for the bottom 90% languishing\/stagnating (this is particularly true if one looks beyond the \u2018average\/mean\u2019 incomes and focuses upon the modal or most common); and, additional pressure provided by significant increases in the number of immigrants entering Canada (with close to half taking up residence in Ontario).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n As a result of all this, housing has not only become out of reach for the \u2018average\u2019 Canadian\/Ontarian, it has become a financial asset concentrated in the hands of the top 10% of income-earners as well as large corporations and private equity firms. On top of this there has been increasing evidence that housing is being used as a means of foreign \u2018syndicates\u2019 and individuals to launder money and\/or earn obscene profits.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The evidence seems quite clear to me to argue that the dominant and mainstream narrative being pushed by various institutions (including government, corporations, developers, financial, media, and academic\u2013primarily economists) and uncritically accepted and regurgitated by most citizens is, frankly, bullshit. And I would further argue that the data shows rather clearly that\u00a0 the housing \u2018crisis\u2019 is being leveraged by policy- and decision-makers to further enrich the ruling caste.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n If I were to summarise all of this I would lay the blame of this housing \u2018affordability crisis\u2019 on the shoulders of institutional decisions and policies that have led to the exponential divergence between housing prices and income. These include: suppression of interest rates; off-shoring of industry and their relatively well-paying jobs; massive influx of immigrants; leveraging of the issue by profiteers (and I include government here); commodification of housing; and, concentration of wealth assets in the hands of the \u2018elite\u2019.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n There is much, much more to this \u2018crisis\u2019 than the supply and policy constraints that the mainstream narrative suggests; if supply is even a factor, given all the other variables and their significant impacts. Supply issues, however, will likely continue to receive the lion\u2019s share of blame for this since it is the one that the elite can most easily: leverage to expand their revenue streams; help support the Ponzi that is our financialised economic systems; and, continue to pursue the infinite growth chalice.<\/span><\/p>\n I would argue that this situation is only going to get worse as our tumble down the Seneca Cliff picks up speed\u2026prepare accordingly.<\/span><\/p>\n As I responded to another who suggested \u201cEverything!\u201d when I rhetorically commented on a Facebook post by our recently elected Prime Minister (extolling the desire \u201cto make Canada an energy superpower\u201d and the Energy Minister vowing \u201cto fast-track infrastructure projects\u201d in this vein) my standard comment to such nonsense\u2013\u201dSure, infinite growth on a finite planet What could possibly go wrong?\u201d :<\/span><\/p>\n \u201c\u2018Collapse\u2019 is a recurrent phenomenon in human pre\/history. Unfortunately, our ruling class (as is typical) is doing the exact opposite of what is needed to mitigate our predicaments because of the \u2018greed and stupidity\u2019 of which you speak. They are focused upon protecting and possibly expanding the wealth-generation\/-extraction systems that provide their revenue streams while selling their exploits to the masses as beneficial for them. As George Carlin so eloquently put it: It\u2019s all bullshit, and it\u2019s bad for ya!\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n It should be added that with the more recent increase in interest rates, the rigged housing \u2018game\u2019 has slowed dramatically, with some suggesting a \u2018bust\u2019 is imminent. Many markets have experienced an increase in the number of units not selling along with some price stagnation and actual decreases. Unfortunately, alongside this has been an increase in the number of households experiencing financial hardship as they struggle to meet increasing mortgage payments (to say little about their difficulty with the general price inflation of the past few years, particularly of food). Despite this shift, institutional narratives have not changed and the need to expand and expedite the construction of millions of new housing units remains.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n I continue to collate and reformat the detailed responses of both DeepSeek and Julius. I will be posting a link to this information here in the not too distant future for anyone who may be interested\u2026hopefully in the next few days.<\/span><\/p>\n A handful of Canadian mainstream media articles on the housing \u2018crisis\u2019 (note that virtually all of them highlight that the main, if not only, \u2018problem\u2019 is one of supply vs demand and that the \u2018solution\u2019 is constructing millions of new units): Charles Hugh Smith has written extensively on the affordable housing issue. Here are links to a number of his articles on the subject: Also see articles by:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
\n<\/span>Imperial Longevity, \u2018Collapse\u2019 Causes, and Resource Finiteness<\/b> (<\/span>Website<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Medium<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Substack<\/span><\/a>)
\n<\/span>US Peak Shale Oil & Gas: When the Walls Come Tumblin\u2019 Down<\/b> (<\/span>Website<\/span><\/a>,<\/span> Medium<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Substack<\/span><\/a>)
\n<\/span>Problem Solving: Complexity, History, Sustainability.<\/b> (<\/span>Website<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Medium<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Substack<\/span><\/a>)
\n<\/span>Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s), Part 1<\/b> (<\/span>Website<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Medium<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Substack<\/span><\/a>) <\/span>Part 2<\/b> (<\/span>Website<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Medium<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Substack<\/span><\/a>) <\/span>Part 3<\/b> (<\/span>Website<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Medium<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Substack<\/span><\/a>) <\/span>Part 4<\/b> (<\/span>Website<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Medium<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Substack<\/span><\/a>)
\n<\/span>Rackets: Keeping the Curtains on Reality Drawn<\/b> (<\/span>Website<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Medium<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Substack<\/span><\/a>)
\n<\/span>Ruling Elite Rackets Everywhere\u2026<\/b> (<\/span>Website<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Medium<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Substack<\/span><\/a>)<\/span><\/p>\n
\n<\/b>\u201c<\/span>…I wish to highlight the primary response typically pursued by the elite and that we are already bearing witness to, and will likely see much more of in the years ahead: opting to pursue increased complexity to address perceived problems.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n
\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
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\n<\/span>Canadian government has to allow home prices to fall to make housing more affordable, experts say<\/span><\/a>
\nCanada\u2019s new housing minister doesn\u2019t think prices need to come down<\/span><\/a>
\n\u2018Financial landlords\u2019 driving up rent prices in Toronto faster than other types of landlords: study<\/span><\/a>
\nConservatives want cities to cut development charges to drop housing costs<\/span><\/a>
\nMark Carney’s to-do list is short but steep | CBC News<\/span><\/a>
\nAll eyes on housing crisis as government, opposition duel over who’s to blame and how to fix it | CBC News<\/span><\/a>
\nBillions to be announced for housing construction in federal fiscal update, says source | CBC News<\/span><\/a>
\nFeds unlock public properties to build 29,200 housing units by 2029 | CBC News<\/span><\/a>
\nMore than 2,000 condos sitting empty in Metro Vancouver amid housing crisis – BC | Globalnews.ca<\/span><\/a>
\n\u2018Completely unattainable\u2019: Homeownership elusive for most young Ontarians, report finds | Globalnews.ca<\/span><\/a>
\nFeds announce plans to develop public lands in Calgary for affordable housing | Globalnews.ca<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n
\n<\/span>Three Ways to Restore Housing Affordability<\/span><\/a>
\nUnaffordable Housing and Homeless Encampments: How Did It Get This Bad?<\/span><\/a>
\nHousing: The Foundations of the Middle Class Are Crumbling<\/span><\/a>
\nThe Problem Isn’t a Housing Shortage, It’s the Concentration of Ownership by the Wealthy<\/span><\/a>
\nHere’s Why Housing Is Unaffordable for the Bottom 90%<\/span><\/a>
\nThe Family Home: From Shelter to Asset to Liability<\/span><\/a>
\nThe U.S. Housing Market: Rent-Serfs and Artificial Scarcity<\/span><\/a>
\nThe Cost of Owning a Home Is Soaring<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n\n